Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 6.27.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/27/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 347K
Actual: 346K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010187
1st Peak @ 0.010178 – 0831 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.010227 – 0831 (1 min)
-49 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast causing an indecisive reaction. Fortunately, the premature volatility was a tripwire to disable the strategy and cancel the order. It started chopping between the 20/13 SMAs and 200 SMA, then spiked short initially for 9 ticks before reversing for 49 ticks. Then it fell back to settle about 15 ticks higher. With JOBB, you would have filled short then taken a 12-14 tick loss with slippage. After the :31 bar, it slowly fell to the S2 Pivot in the next 30 min, then traded sideways.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/20/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 343K
Actual: 354K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010225
1st Peak @ 0.010247 – 0831 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.010234 – 0832 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.010256 – 0837 (7 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.010224 – 0853 (23 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast by 11k jobs, causing a long spike of 22 ticks on 1 bar after the market had been trading sideways above the SMAs. It crossed the S2 Mid Pivot, peaked about 6 ticks higher, then pulled back for a 13 tick reversal on the :32 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at about 0.010231 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait for it to target the S2 Mid Pivot for 10+ ticks. After the reversal of 13 ticks, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks as it encountered resistance in the 0.010250 area. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the following 16 min, reaching the 100 SMA.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 082013

6/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.4
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 93.75
1st Peak @ 93.66 – 1001 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 93.82 – 1001 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a muted, but indecisive reaction. ISM was slightly positive, while the concurrent factory orders were negative. It spiked short for 9 ticks to hit an area of support in the area of 93.69 established in the previous 30 min, then rebounded long for 16 ticks after 11 sec, nearly reaching the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 93.70 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been stopped with an 11 tick loss (1 tick of slippage) unless you were quick and closed out with less of a loss. After the initial indecisive bar, it attempted to go lower a few more times, but was unable to penetrate 93.66. Then it rebounded up to 94.13 15 min later for an extended reversal. After that it drifted lower before the inventory report took it long. This is the first indecisive reaction we have seen on this report in more than 18 months, but the matching ISM and offsetting factory orders reaction were the root cause.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.7.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 042013

6/7/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 167K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 175K
Previous Revision: -16K to 149K
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 141’06
1st Peak @ 140’02 – 0831 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 141’22 – 0834 (4 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Mixed report showing only 8K more jobs created than expected, a moderate previous downward revision of 16K jobs, and a 0.1% increase in the unemployment U-3 rate due to more people looking for work. This caused the bonds to selloff for 36 ticks on the :30 and :31 bars, eclipsing the S1 Pivot, but unable to sustain the move as it retreated after 9 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 140’27 with abnormally high 5 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen a 5 sec delay in the chart until 4 sec into the :31 bar when it continued short to 140’02. Then it retreated quickly up to 140’29 near breakeven. The correct play if you did not have a profit target that filled would be to close out as it started retreating more than 8 ticks. I managed to exit at 140’15 to capture 12 ticks. This is the ZB’s version of an indecisive reaction as the results were mixed, but it still gave a quick and capturable profit. The reversal recovered 56 ticks in 4 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and hitting the HOD. Then it fell again in the next 11 min to miss a double bottom by 3 ticks. Then it kept chopping mildly lower using the 100 SMA as resistance for several hours.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.17.2013

Empire State Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jul 042013

6/17/2013 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4
Actual: 7.8
DULL REACTION
Started @ 98.26
1st Peak @ 98.32 – 0831 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 97.91 – 0846 (16 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast and barely impressed the market. It was also caught in the middle of a small correction after a large short move in the previous hour. The correction had exhausted the bulls as it ran into the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot and then it was looking for another short move. The moderately bullish news was not enough to sustain the long move. We saw an initial long move of 6 ticks, then it stalled and hovered before slowly falling. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 98.30 with no slippage, then look to exit near breakeven as it only gave you about 1-2 ticks of profit opportunity. After the :31 and :32 bars hovered above the 50 SMA, it fell for a reversal of 41 ticks in the next 15 min.

ZC 07-13 (1 Min) 6.12.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 042013

6/12/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 658.50 (11:59:25)
1st Peak @ 646.25 – 1202 (2 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 658.25 – 1205 (5 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short spike of 49 ticks over 2 bars, that started below all 3 major SMAs (using the 200 SMA as resistance) and eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 654.00 with 6 ticks of slippage. After struggling to go lower than the S1 Pivot for several seconds, it eventually succumbed and crashed for another 20+ ticks. If you were patient, 25 ticks could have been captured with ease. If not, 10 or so ticks would have been available. After the spike, it reversed very quickly back to the origin in only 3 min, then it attempted to go lower again, but only was able to briefly penetrate the S1 Pivot. After that it traded sideways between the S1 and S1 Mid Pivots.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 6.6.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 112013

6/6/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 345K
Actual: 346K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010093
1st Peak @ 0.010112 – 0831 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.010081 – 0831 (1 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010062 – 0854 (24 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast causing an indecisive reaction. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA, then shot long for 19 ticks and reversed for 31 ticks in millisec to stop you out and trigger the knife switch with slippage. The long move nearly reached the R1 Pivot and the short move eclipsed the OOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at .010108 with 10 ticks of slippage, then stopped out at 0.010088 with 10 ticks of slippage immediately. After the :31 bar, it continued lower for an extended reversal of 50 ticks in 24 min. Then it popped back up and chopped sideways.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 6.5.2013

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jun 102013

6/5/2013 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 171K
Actual: 135K
Previous revision: -6K to 113K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010042
1st Peak @ 0.010090 – 0816 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.010048 – 0824 (9 min)
42 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010028 – 0857 (42 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately negative showing 36k less jobs created than expected along with a negligible downward revision of 6k jobs causing a large 48 tick long spike on the :16 bar that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin and the R3 Pivot as it extended the HOD. Due to the size of the spike, it left 17 ticks on the wick naked and caused higher than normal slippage. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010056 with 10 ticks of slippage, then look to exit in between 0.010070 and 0.010080 with about 20 ticks as it hovered for about 10 sec. After the 1st peak left a naked wick, it reversed for 42 ticks in 8 min, then it made a failed attempt at a 2nd peak, only able to reach the R3 Pivot. After that it fell for a larger extended reversal of 62 ticks in the next 30 min, eclipsing the R2 Pivot. Then it chopped sideways.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.4.2013

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 102013

6/4/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -41.1B
Actual: -40.3B
Previous Revision: +1.7B to -37.1B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 93.28
1st Bar range 93.25 to 93.31 – 0831 (1 min)
+/- 3 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast by 0.8B to cause a dull reaction. When the market fails to launch in about 10-15 sec, cancel the bracket. In this case you could have ridden out the entire :31 bar and most of the :32 bar without a fill. The 6J had a better reaction to this report, but not over the long term trend so we will continue to evaluate it.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.4.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 102013

6/3/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 49.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.72
1st Peak @ 92.49 – 1001 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 92.82 – 1002 (2 min)
33 ticks

Extended Reversal to 93.38 – 1021 (21 min)
89 ticks

Notes: Report came in very disappointing as it was 1.6 points short, well below 50.0 and the worst reading in 4 years. The CL initially fell, but as is often the case with very bearish news, the dollar also dropped and caused the CL to eventually rally due to the inverse relationship. We saw a drop of only 23 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot, then after 40 sec, it reversed for 33 ticks on the next bar, then continued to trend upward. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 1 tick of slippage at 92.66. You would have seen it hover between 92.49 and 92.53 for 10 sec in the middle of the :01 bar, so exit there with at least 15 ticks. After the initial reversal, it stepped higher as the dollar continued to fall towards an extended reversal of 89 ticks 20 min later, crossing the R2 Mid Pivot and extending the HOD. Then it backed off and traded sideways.

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