Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 5.3.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 192013

5/3/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 146K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 165K
Previous Revision: +50K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.6%
Rate Actual: 7.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 149’05
1st Peak @ 148’05 – 0831 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 147’24 – 0848 (18 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 148’01 – 0911 (41 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 147’07 – 1027 (117 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 147’14 – 1051 (141 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report showing 19K more jobs created than expected, a strong previous upward revision of 50K jobs, and a 0.1% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate due to shrinkage of the labor force and small gains. This caused the bonds to selloff for 32 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin, then bottoming just below the S2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 148’30 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture about 20-24 ticks on the :31 bar, or up to 33 ticks on the :37 bar at the S3 Mid Pivot. I exited just below the S2 Pivot on the :31 bar for 22 ticks. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed minimally for 7 ticks on the :32 bar, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in 17 min. Then it reversed for 9 ticks in about 20 min to the 50 SMA. Eventually the final peak fell to 147’07 about 2 hrs after the report, just above the S4 Mid Pivot, then a small reversal yielded 7 ticks in 24 min. This established a strong bearish sentiment in the ZB, not wanting to correct much and continuing to carve out new lows. Another amazing trade on the ZB!

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.16.2013

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

May 182013

5/16/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.5
Actual: -5.2
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE then SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.57
1st Peak @ 94.46 – 1001 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 94.65 – 1001 (1 min)
-19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.08 – 1008 (8 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 94.77 – 1033 (33 min)
69 ticks

Extended Reversal to 95.57 – 1124 (84 min)
149 ticks

Notes: Report fell moderately short of the forecast with a delta of nearly 8, but this caused an indecisive :31 bar that had to contend with the 100 SMA, but a prolonged bearish reaction that was proper. This is the pattern with the CL these days. The results are decisive , but the initial reaction is muted and indecisive, then it delivers on the following 5 or so bars. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at about 94.53 with no slippage, then it would have only given you a fleeting 7 ticks as it oscillated between 4 ticks in the red and 7 in the green. The 10 tick stop was taken out, but a 15 tick stop would have ridden out the heat. There are 2 ways to play a report like this. 1) do not use JOBB, but upon seeing the bearish results, setup a sell limit up near the 50 SMA, or 2) move the stop up higher to about 3 ticks above the 50 SMA and wait for the delayed move. It conquered the 100 SMA on the :33 bar then paused briefly at the R1 Mid Pivot at 94.33 before crashing through the 200 SMA for a total 2nd peak of 49 ticks. Then it reversed for 69 ticks in 25 min and achieved an extended reversal of 149 ticks in a little less than 1.5 hrs.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.18.2013

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

May 182013

4/18/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.7
Actual: 1.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 87.19
1st Peak @ 86.31 – 1006 (6 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 87.64 – 1134 (94 min)
133 ticks

Notes: Report slightly fell short of the forecast with a delta of only 1.4, but this caused a much larger than expected short spike of 88 ticks on 6 bars to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. The market had been in a selling mood for about 90 min before the report, likely adding to the magnitude of the short reaction. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at about 87.13 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would be safe to stay in and watch how it handles the 87.04 area and the PP Pivot at 86.96, just below it. When the :02 bar blasted through both of those levels and sustained the drop, move the stop to above the PP and stay in until the move is finished. You could have stayed in to the S1 Mid Pivot and made up to 75 ticks. After the spike, it chopped higher fighting through many levels of resistance for 133 ticks in about 90 min.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.21.2013

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

May 182013

3/21/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: -1.6
Actual: 2.0
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 92.88
Range of next bar – 92.85 – 92.91 – 1001 (1 min)
+/- 3 ticks

Notes: Report marginally exceeded the forecast with a delta of about 3.5, but this was offset by a marginally disappointing Existing Home Sales report at the same time resulting in a very dull reaction that traveled no more than 3 ticks away from the origin in either direction. The market had been selling off over the last hour, but was attempting to correct getting stuck between the 50 SMA and the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, your order would not have filled at any time, but follow the rules and cancel after about 15 sec of dull activity. It continued to chop sideways in a tight range between 92.80 and 92.93 until about 16 min after the report when it finally broke out short.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.21.2013

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

May 182013

2/21/2013 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.1
Actual: -12.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.82
1st Peak @ 92.70 – 1001 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.05 – 1009 (9 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast with a delta of nearly 14, but this caused a much smaller than expected short spike of only 12 ticks that was unsustainable. The market had been selling off over the last 2 hours mostly due to disappointing jobless claims, and was likely oversold. The spike did not cross any SMAs or Pivots, but made a failed attempt to reach the LOD that was established just 10 min earlier. With JOBB, your order would have filled short at about 93.75 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it stayed stuck between 93.73 and 93.70, so close out with a few ticks. After the spike, it struggled to reverse through the 20 and 13 SMAs and eventually nicked the 50 SMA for 35 ticks 9 min after the report. After that, it attempted a 2nd peak, but came up short, then rebounded further.

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 4.26.2013

Advance GDP Comments Off

May 092013

4/26/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 0.4%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’15
1st Peak@ 148’23 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 148’16 – 0845 (15 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast causing a long and unsustainable spike of 8 ticks on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs but the R3 and R4 Mid Pivots as it was already trending higher. It eclipsed the R4 Mid Pivot and fell, leaving 5 ticks of the wick naked. Our Stop loss was also rejected as the CME now disallows stop limit orders with the default setting of 20 ticks for ATM strategies in Ninja. Bizarre reaction overall as we had a reasonably solid forecast and a decent offset for a disappointment. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 148’21 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it retreat to bob between 2-4 ticks in the red. I manually restored the stop at 5 ticks and patiently waited to exit with a 2 tick loss, but it eventually achieved a double top 15 min after the news to allow for 1-2 ticks of profit max. The reversal yielded 7 ticks in about an hour as it retreated to near the origin. Then it traded sideways.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 082013

5/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.0
Actual: 50.7
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.96
1st Peak @ 91.06 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 90.87 – 1001 (1 min)
-19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.26 – 1005 (5 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 90.83 – 1018 (18 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast causing a small but indecisive :01 bar as it spiked long for 10 ticks, then reversed for 19 ticks and settled near where it started. After the :01 bar, it rallied for 20 more ticks up to the 100 SMA in 4 more min. Then it reversed for 43 ticks in 13 min down to the low established a few min before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with 1 tick of slippage at 91.02. You would have seen it hover between 90.96 and 91.06 in the first 20 sec, before it would have taken out your stop loss if left alone at 90.90. You could play this 2 ways…1) move the stop up and look to close out near Breakeven after the observed hovering, or 2) Note the low at 90.82 that held as a level of support a few min before the report and move the stop to 90.81 (21 ticks risk), then wait for about 10 ticks on the following bars as this report reaction always pans out slowly and there is no resistance barrier until the 100 SMA. You could exit around 92.12 to 91.17 on the :03 bar.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 082013

4/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -1.4%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: -2.9%
Regular Actual: -5.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 5.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.46
1st Peak @ 89.32 – 0832 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reverse to 89.63 – 0849 (19 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 89.92 – 0918 (48 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Report came in solidly bearish and disappointing overall. This caused a 14 tick short move that bottomed on the :32 bar to extend the LOD by 11 ticks. Then after a double bottom, it reversed for 31 ticks in about 10 min to the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 89.40 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at the end of the :31 bar for about 5 ticks, or place your exit a few ticks lower. After the reversal, it attempted a 2nd Peak, but ran out of gas as the pit opened. Then it reversed long strongly for 60 ticks in about 20 min.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.30.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

May 082013

4/30/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 61.4
Actual: 68.1
Previous revision: +2.2 to 61.9
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 93.75
1st Peak @ 93.87 – 1001 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.30 – 1028 (28 min)
57 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin but was caught in very bearish sentiment causing a muted 12 tick spike that was against the grain. It ran into the 13 SMA and the S1 Mid Pivot arresting the long move. With JOBB you would have filled long at 93.81 with about 1 tick of slippage. Given the conditions and that it was just barely above the threshold of a dull report, move your stop loss up to near Breakeven and try to exit with a few ticks on the profit side or minimize the loss with the tight stop loss. The reversal continued the bearish trend for 57 ticks, bottoming in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots. Then it corrected a bit upward.

NG 06-13 (1 Min) 5.2.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 072013

5/2/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 27B
Actual: 43B
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 4.293
1st Peak @ 4.123 – 1033 (3 min)
170 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.037 – 1206 (96 min)
256 ticks

Reversal to 4.085 – 1231 (121 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Much larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a very large short spike of 170 ticks that bottomed on the :33 bar after a brief struggle on the S3 Mid Pivot. This is the largest delta on the result that we have seen in quite some time. This triggered a downward fan that used the 13/20 SMAs as resistance for over 90 min as it kept stepping lower to a final peak of 256 ticks. The final reversal reclaimed 48 ticks in about 25 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.245 with nearly 40 ticks of slippage. Even with the high slippage, there would have been an easy opportunity to exit with 50 – 100 ticks.

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