Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2.7.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

2/7/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -135B
Actual: -118B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.414
1st Peak @ 3.341 – 1031 (1 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 3.372 – 1032 (2 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.318 – 1136 (66 min)
96 ticks

Reversal to 3.345 – 1204 (94 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 73 ticks that was a few seconds premature, crossed no SMAs and the S1 / S2 Pivots. With JOBB, you would not have filled since the spike moved early on the :30 bar before the bracket was on the chart. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for a meager 31 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of 23 more ticks an hour later. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 27 ticks in about 30 min to touch the 100 SMA.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 2.14.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

2/14/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -166B
Actual: -157B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.274
1st Peak @ 3.187 – 1033 (3 min)
87 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.135 – 1322 (172 min)
139 ticks

Reversal to 3.167 – 1401 (211 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Moderately smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 87 ticks that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs at the origin, and the S1 Pivot halfway down the spike. It eventually bottomed on the 1st peak 4 ticks below the S2 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it continued to step lower, never wanting to reverse much. It achieved a final peak almost 3 hrs after the report of 139 ticks, and did not cross the 50 SMA until 1330. The final reversal garnered only 32 ticks in about 40 min to eclipse the 200 SMA. Overall a very bearish reaction over a long period of time.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 1.31.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

1/31/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -202B
Actual: -194B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.329
1st Peak @ 3.253 – 1031 (1 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 3.269 – 1034 (4 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.243 – 1037 (7 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 3.383 – 1159 (89 min)
140 ticks

Notes: Slightly smaller loss than was forecast caused a short spike of 76 ticks that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs on top of each other and the PP / S1 Pivots. With JOBB, you would not have filled since the spike moved early on the :30 bar before the bracket was on the chart. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for a meager 16 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of only 10 more ticks in 7 min. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 35 ticks in 18 min, then 105 more ticks in the next hour to eclipse the R1 Pivot.

NG 03-13 (1 Min) 1.24.2013

NG Storage Comments Off

May 062013

1/24/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -167B
Actual: -172B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.603
1st Peak @ 3.524 – 1031 (1 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 3.567 – 1033 (3 min)
43 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.519 – 1041 (11 min)
84 ticks

Reversal to 3.576 – 1119 (49 min)
57 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a contrary short spike of 79 ticks that crossed all 3 SMAs on top of each other and the PP / S1 Pivots. With JOBB, you would have filled short with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.570. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with at least 30 ticks as it hovered around the S1 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it reversed for 43 ticks, then achieved a 2nd peak of only 5 more ticks in 11 min. The final reversal was slow developing, garnering 42 ticks in 9 min, then 15 more ticks in the next 30 min to eclipse the 100 SMA.

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.25.13

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/25/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 352K
Actual: 339K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1453.4
1st Peak @ 1451.4 – 0831 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1453.6 – 0835 (5 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1444.7 – 0939 (69 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 1457.4 – 1023 (113 min)
127 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 13k jobs, but caused a relatively muted reaction of only 20 ticks after a huge rally of about 100 ticks in the 30 min before the report. After establishing a much higher HOD, it backed off, then the bearish report was released and it could not go lower than the R3 Pivot and 13 SMA for about 30 min. Then it finally fell for a 2nd peak of 87 ticks culminating over an hour after the report to eclipse the R3 Mid Pivot. After that the reversal popped back up 127 ticks in about 45 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1452.3 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity for a handful of ticks. I waited several min, expecting a drop through the R3 Pivot. After 10 min, I closed out fearing the influence of the report would be waning and it could resume the rally from earlier.

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.18.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/18/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 349K
Actual: 352K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1399.6
1st Peak @ 1397.1 – 0831 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1401.9 – 0919 (49 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching the forecast, causing an indecisive scenario with a 25 tick short spike then a 48 tick reversal. The spike nicked the 100 SMA, then reversed to hit the HOD and retreated to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1398.4 with 2 ticks of slippage, then been stopped at 1400.6 with 2 ticks of slippage for 22 tick loss. After the indecision, it trended lower to eventually eclipse the PP Pivot.

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.11.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/11/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 362K
Actual: 346K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1561.6
1st Peak @ 1555.5 – 0832 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 1561.7 – 0919 (49 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Report came in much better than the forecast by 16K jobs, causing a 61 tick short spike on 2 bars. The spike crossed all 3 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot, bottoming in between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot. This area was a proven support area from 90 min earlier. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1560.2 with 4 ticks of slippage. With the decisive news, look to go for a few more ticks safely. The 200 SMA served as support briefly, then it was decisively conquered on the :32 bar. If you exited on the :31 bar, you could have taken about 12 ticks, but if you were patient and waited on the :32 bar, you could have exited with more than 40 ticks with ease. After it stalled out near the peak for about 5 min, it developed enough stored up divergence to rebound back to the origin. The reversal took over 45 min and struggled for about 30 min to conquer the SMAs for 62 ticks. After that it stepped up for several higher peaks.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.28.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

3/28/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 340K
Actual: 357K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.27
1st Peak @ 96.48 – 0832 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 96.33 – 0840 (10 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.78 – 0936 (66 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 96.47 – 0947 (77 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly weaker than the forecast by 17K jobs, causing a 21 tick long spike on 2 bars. As the report was released right after a large bearish move in the market, the spike hit resistance on the falling 13 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 96.33 with 1 tick of slippage. With the decisive news and the oversold market, look to go for a few more ticks safely. The dollar was falling to enhance the rally in the CL. You could have exited with 10-12 ticks on the :31 or :32 bar. If you stayed in for a longer term, look for a decisive 2nd peak after the pit open. It had to fight through all of the SMAs, but the 200 SMA would have been a good target at about 96.65 for over 30 ticks. After the 2nd peak was attained at 96.78, it reversed for 27 ticks in 11 min.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.21.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

3/21/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 343K
Actual: 336K
DULL REACTION (FILL)
Started @ 93.24
1st Peak @ 93.16 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 93.30 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 93.43 – 0841 (11 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 7K jobs, causing an 8 tick short spike that quickly reversed 14 ticks by the end of the :31 bar. The initial drop crossed the 50/100 SMAs and PP Pivot right on top of each other at 93.20. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at 93.18 with 1 tick of slippage just below the overlapping support, then seen it pop back long and hover around 5 ticks in the red until about 5 sec left of the bar. Look to close out there. After that it would have taken out your stop loss of 8 ticks. With the news being positive, the initial short move was likely a robotic HFT in the wrong direction. The bullish sentiment prevailed in the following 10 min, causing an extended reversal of 27 ticks, eclipsing the OOD on the :41 bar. Then it chopped sideways until the pit open initiated a selloff.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 2.14.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

2/14/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 361K
Actual: 341K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.18
1st Peak @ 97.33 – 0834 (4 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 97.04 – 0858 (28 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.54 – 0914 (44 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 97.28 – 0933 (63 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 20K jobs, causing a 15 tick spike realized on the :34 bar. Since the market was already trending upward, this continued the momentum, but it had to contend with the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 97.24 with 1 tick of slippage on the PP Pivot, then seen it hover around 5 ticks of your fill point until it popped up on the :34 bar. Look for 5-8 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 29 ticks just before the pit open, then achieved a 2nd peak of 36 ticks about 14 min after the open. The final reversal reclaimed 26 ticks in the next 20 min.

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