Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.26.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

3/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -0.5%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 2.3%
Regular Forecast: 3.9%
Regular Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -4.9%
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 95.59
1st Peak @ 95.52 – 0831 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.41 – 0838 (8 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 95.88 – 0918 (48 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing though not as much as last month causing a dull reaction. As long as you canceled the order within 38 sec, you would not have filled. Remember the rules state to cancel the order after 15 sec with no fill. The core reading was moderately negative while the regular reading was strongly positive and the previous revisions were mildly positive. This caused a dull 7 tick short move that achieved 11 more ticks after 8 min, eclipsing the 100 SMA. Then it reversed for a methodical rebound of 47 ticks in the next 40 min, riding the 13 and 20 SMAs. Since the forecasts were both positive, this was a safer proposition than last month. Even if you had filled short at 95.54, it would have stayed between 3 ticks in the red and 2 in the green for the next few bars, so it would not have been a significant loss.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.27.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

2/27/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:1.9%
Previous revision:-0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: -4.8%
Regular Actual:-5.2%
Previous Revision:-0.3% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 92.49
1st Peak @ 92.67 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 92.38 – 0831 (106 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing indecision. The core reading was strongly positive while the regular reading was strongly negative and the previous revisions were moderately negative. This caused a quick and unsustainable spike for 18 ticks, followed by a reversal of 29 ticks. With the strongly divergent forecasts, this should have been warning enough to disqualify the report and was a lesson learned. With JOBB, this would have caused a long fill at about 92.57 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hit 92.67 and sharply retreat 20 ticks in 4 sec. If you closed out there, you would have taken a 10 ticks loss, otherwise your stop loss would have caught at 25 sec. The reaction went long to cross the 13 and 20 of a down trending market, then fell to extend the LOD by 4 ticks. It the next several minutes, it oscillated lower, extending the LOD each drop, while using the falling 50 SMA as resistance.

CL 03 13 (1 Min) 1.28.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

1/28/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual:1.3%
Previous revision:-0.4% to1.2% Core
Regular Forecast: 1.8%
Regular Actual:4.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.12
1st Peak @ 96.25 – 0833 (3 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.81 – 0901 (31 min)
69 ticks

Reverse to 95.47 – 1016 (106 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Report came in very positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were overall slightly negative. The spike crossed the 50 SMA, but it was not a resistance barrier since the market had been trading above it until a few min before the report release. The report was delayed about 90 sec, so the spike did not occur until late on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 96.18 with 1 tick of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with up to 6 ticks on the first few bars, or 20+ if you were patient and waited about 7 min. After the 1st peak, it struggled to climb above 96.25 with a short term barrier there, then eventually stepped higher for another 25 min to 96.81 and 69 total ticks right at the pit open. The final reversal was reacting to the overbought condition of the market and the report, selling off for 134 ticks in 75 min, nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.26.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 202013

3/26/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 67.9
Actual: 59.7
Previous revision: -1.6 to 68.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.77
1st Peak @ 95.57 – 1004 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 95.71 – 1008 (8 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.31 – 1023 (23 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 95.64 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report strongly disappointed falling well short of the forecast and caused a short reaction of 20 ticks culminating on the :03 bar. It probably would have achieved a bigger spike if not for all the support barriers crossed. It struggled with the 50 SMA on the :01 bar, then the R1 Pivot and the 100 SMA on the next 2 bars. With JOBB you would have filled short at 95.69 with 3 ticks of slippage. I moved my stop to break even and 1 tick above the 50 SMA after it was struggling to go lower and got nicked for no gain on the wick of the :02 bar. Then the next bar would have given another 7 tick drop allowing 10 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 14 ticks in 4 min, before dropping for a big 2nd peak of 46 total ticks in the next 15 min. After that, the final reversal reclaimed 33 ticks in a brief 9 min to eclipse the 100 SMa and the R1 Pivot.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.26.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 202013

2/26/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 60.8
Actual: 69.6
Previous revision: -0.2 to 58.4
SPIKE/REVERSE SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 93.11
1st Peak @ 93.44 – 1003 (3 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 92.52 – 1036 (36 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and caused a long reaction of 33 ticks culminating on the :03 bar that crossed the PP Pivot and extended the HOD by 23 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at 93.17 with 1 tick of slippage. Watch how it interacts with the PP Pivot and consider the strong report when evaluating the exit. with the :02 bar breaking easily, stay in and look to close out around 93.37 or so for about 20 ticks. This report broke at the same time as the FED testimony, but being statistical, the impact was felt more immediately. The reversal was mostly caused by the dollar rallying on the FED testimony aided by the reversal on this report. This resulted in a 92 tick drop in about 30 min down to the S1 Pivot.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.29.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 202013

1/29/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 64.8
Actual: 58.6
Previous revision: +1.6 to 66.7
SPIKE/REVERSE SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.15
1st Peak @ 96.99 – 1001 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 97.17 – 1003 (3 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a decent margin and caused a short reaction of 16 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed the 50 SMA and bottomed on the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 97.10 with no slippage. Look to close out at the R1 Pivot for about 9-10 ticks. A negative report of this magnitude should have caused a larger bearish reaction, but the R1 Pivot reined it in. This was also demonstrated by a quick reversal on the next bar that returned to the origin. After that it came back down to the level of the 1st peak, then traded sideways between the R1 Pivot and the 50 SMA.

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.17.13

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jan 172013

1/17/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 7.1
Actual: -5.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 95.40
1st Peak @ 95.30 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 95.71 – 1016 (16 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast with a delta of nearly 13, but this caused a much smaller than expected short spike of only 10 ticks. The market had been rallying over the last few hours, but was not ready to sell yet. The spike hit the 50 SMA, and could go no lower. With JOBB, your order would have filled at 95.32 with 1 tick of slippage. Since it never fell below the 50 SMA, look to get out at break even. The reversal achieved 41 ticks in 15 min to extend the HOD another 20 ticks.

NG 02 13 (1 Min) 01.17.13

NG Storage Comments Off

Jan 172013

1/17/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -131B
Actual: -148B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.434
1st Peak @ 3.500 – 1032 (2 min)
66 ticks
2nd Peak @ 3.520 – 1038 (8 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 3.461 – 1158 (88 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 66 ticks that crossed no SMAs but the R1 Pivot as it was trending higher before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.464. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with at least 30 ticks as it finished the bar near 3.500. After achieving the 1st peak, it retreated slightly, then achieved a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in 7 min to eclipse the R2 Pivot by 9 ticks. The reversal was slow developing, garnering 33 ticks in 3 min, then 26 more ticks in the next 80 min. After that it slowly rallied again.

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.16.13

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 162013

1/16/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.0M
Actual: -1.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.50
1st Peak @ 93.69 – 1031 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 93.57 – 1032 (2 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.36 – 1107 (37 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 94.08 – 1130 (60 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in crude inventories, while gasoline and distillates both saw small gains. This prompted a small long move that crossed no SMAs and the PP Pivot to reach the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 93.64 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get a few ticks on the :31 bar, or wait and secure about 20 or more on the :33 bar when it shot up to the R1 Pivot. After the 1st peak, it reversed from the HOD for 12 ticks, then popped up to hit the R1 Pivot. After trading sideways below the R1 Pivot for about 30 min, it rallied to a final peak of 86 ticks at 94.36. Then it reversed back to just above the 50 SMA about 20 min later.

ZC 03 13 (1 Min) 01.11.13

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jan 112013

1/11/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0700 HI time / 1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 687.00
1st Peak @ 717.00 – 0703 (1 min)
120 ticks

Reversal to 701.50 – 0714 (14 min)
62 ticks

2nd Peak @ 723.75 – 0756 (56 min)
147 ticks

Reversal to 712.75 – 0848 (108 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report time shifted to 1200 Eastern for this and all future reports. Report Reaction caused a long spike of 120 ticks over 3 bars (the largest of the last year), that completely changed the sentiment of the market as it have been selling off below the S3 Pivot and was at the LOD. The report drove it North through every measurable level of resistance to peak over 40 ticks above the R3 Pivot. After the first peak, it retreated to the R2 Pivot and 20 SMA in about 10 min, then engineered a long developing 2nd peak for another 27 ticks above the 1st peak nearly an hour after the report. I would be cautious trading later moves as you are in the afternoon session of Friday, but this was a very solid report. The final reversal after the 2nd peak yielded 44 ticks in about 50 min.

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