Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.11.13

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 112013

1/11/2013 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -41.1B
Actual: -48.7B
Previous Revision: +0.1B to -42.1B
Spike / REVERSE
Started @ 93.38
1st Peak @ 93.26 – 0831 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.45 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast with the largest deficit since July. The market had just bounced off of the LOD long for about 50 ticks due to a falling dollar. The news caused a short move that fell only 12 ticks and hit the 200 SMA, but could go no lower. With JOBB you would have filled short at 93.31 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close with 4 ticks at the end of the bar on the 200 SMA. The reversal coincided with a drop in the dollar after the news as it climbed 19 ticks in 3 min to hit the S1 Pivot and double top from the short term high achieved 10 min before the report. Then it fell to the 200 SMA 20 min later before it popped up again 10 ticks higher than the 1st peak but the delay means that the report influence likely is not the cause.

NG 02 13 (1 Min) 01.10.13

NG Storage Comments Off

Jan 102013

1/10/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -185B
Actual: -201B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.163
1st Peak @ 3.204 – 1031 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 3.166 – 1039 (9 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 41 ticks that crossed no SMAs or Pivots as it was trending higher before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 12 ticks of slippage at about 3.185. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15 ticks as it hovered in the 3.200 area. After achieving the 1st peak, 4 ticks below the R1 Pivot, it quickly retreated downward for 38 ticks in 8 min to touch the 20 SMA. After that it slowly rallied again to eventually eclipse the R1 Pivot 45 min after the report and chop sideways afterward.

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.09.13

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 092013

1/9/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.9M
Actual: 1.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.43
1st Peak @ 93.18 – 1031 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 93.37 – 1032 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.68 – 1046 (16 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 93.12 – 1120 (50 min)
44 ticks

Notes: In spite of a nearly matching reading in crude inventories, gasoline and distillates both saw extremely large gains. This prompted a short move that crossed both the 100 and 200 SMAs and eclipsed the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 93.28 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 8 ticks as it eclipsed the PP Pivot. After the 1st peak, it reversed from the strong support of the 200 SMA and PP Pivot for 19 ticks. Then after about 5 min, it fought through and fell for a 2nd peak of 75 ticks in about 10 min. Then it reversed back up to cross the 50 SMA and chop sideways for 44 ticks in about 35 min.

CL 02 13 (2 Range) 01.04.13

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 042013

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.04.13

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 042013

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(CL)
Started @ 92.14
1st Peak @ 91.92 – 0831 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 92.40 – 0832 (2 min)
48 ticks

Extended Reversal to 92.99 – 1001 (91 min)
107 ticks

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(TF)
Started @ 872.3
1st Peak @ 870.0 – 0831 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 873.7 – 0837 (7 min)
37 ticks

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(ZB)
Started @ 143’29
1st Peak @ 144’14 – 0831 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 143’21 – 0839 (9 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Overall matching report with little fireworks…only 5K more jobs created than anticipated, a previous revision of +15K jobs, offset by a rise in the U-3 rate of 0.1%. This drove a tame market reaction, causing a short term bearish reaction that reversed upward on the CL and TF, and a rally, then reversal on the ZB. Both the CL and the TF peaked just a few seconds into the :01 bar for 20-30 ticks, then reversed to breakeven briefly, before reversing strongly into the :02 bar. As they were already trading above the major SMAs, the CL crossed the 50 SMA and bottomed at the 100 SMA, and the TF crossed the PP, R1 Pivots, the HOD, then nearly reached the R2 Pivot. Once again, the ZB outperformed both of the other indexes, rallying 17 ticks on the first bar (equivalent of about 51 ticks on the CL or TF), crossing the S1 Pivot about halfway up the spike. I traded the ZB with a 3 tick bracket, filling long at 144’01 with 1 ticks of slippage, then got out with 11 ticks at 144’12. After peaking, it reversed for 25 ticks in 8 min through all the major SMAs and bottomed at the S2 Pivot. Then it oscillated higher over the next hr.

We continue to recommend the ZB at the preferred index as demonstrated with a matching report, the ZB still generated 17 ticks (about 13 max capturable), and was stable in holding the peak unlike the CL and TF.

ZC 03 13 (1 Min) 12.11.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 112012

12/11/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 726.50
1st Peak @ 732.00 – 0331 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 725.50 – 0332 (2 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 733.75 – 0336 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 726.25 – 0342 (12 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long spike of 22 ticks, that was unsustainable crossing only the PP Pivot. After hovering for 10 sec, it reversed and surrendered all of the long move, for a 26 tick reversal on the :32 bar. Prior to the report, the market had been trading in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 15 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 727.75 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with up to 16 ticks as it peaked and hovered at 732.00. The last 2 months reports, we have seen the same trend of a spike, quick reversal, then a 2nd peak of a few more ticks. If this continues, after the quick reversal, look to trade the 2nd peak and place your target 2-5 ticks greater than the 1st peak.

CL 01 13 (2 Range) 12.07.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072012

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.07.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072012

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(CL)
Started @ 86.28
1st Peak @ 86.89 – 0332 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 86.07 – 0422 (52 min)
82 ticks

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(TF)
Started @ 819.7
1st Peak @ 827.0 – 0333 (3 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 819.1 – 0501 (91 min)
79 ticks

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(ZB)
Started @ 150’19
1st Peak @ 149’16 – 0332 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 149’25 – 0334 (4 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 149’11 – 0344 (14 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 149’28 – 0407 (37 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Overall positive report with almost 60K jobs more created than anticipated and a drop in the U-3 rate of 0.2%. This drove the markets to bullish reaction with CL and TF rallying, and the ZB falling. Both the CL and the TF peaked on after the :01 bar for 60-70+ ticks, double topped a few min later, then reversed for about 10-20% more ticks than the spike 50-90 min later. As they were already trading above the major SMAs, the CL only crossed the PP Pivot and the HOD, and the TF crossed the PP, R1 Pivots, the HOD, then nearly reached the R2 Pivot. Once again, the ZB outperformed both of the other indexes, falling 35 ticks on the first 2 bars (equivalent of about 105 ticks on the CL or TF), crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin, and the PP – S3 Pivots. I traded the ZB with a 3 tick bracket, filling short at 150’12 with 4 ticks of slippage, then got out early and conservatively with 14 ticks at 149’30. After peaking, it reversed for 9 ticks, then fell for 14 ticks to a 2nd peak at 149’11. The final reversal reclaimed 17 ticks to eclipse the 50 SMA about 35 min after the report.

It is likely the slippage on the CL and TF would have exceeded 10 ticks. I have a few anecdotes from those who traded those and made 15-25 ticks. With the slippage less, and the profit potential much larger on the ZB, that is the recommended index for now.

NG 01 13 (1 Min) 12.06.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Dec 062012

12/6/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -70B
Actual: -73B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.679
1st Peak @ 3.748 – 0531 (1 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 3.614 – 0639 (69 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 69 ticks that crossed only the 200 SMA as it was using the 50 and 100 SMAs for support at the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long, narrowly avoiding a premature short spike with about 22 ticks of slippage at about 3.711. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15-20 ticks as it hovered in the 3.730 area. After achieving the 1st peak, it methodically retreated downward in the next hour for a 134 tick reversal, crossing all of the SMAs and eclipsing the PP Pivot by 23 ticks. After that it rallied again for about 90 ticks in the next 90 min, then continued its overall bearish trend. As the current overall sentiment is very bearish on NG, be careful about getting too greedy on long trades.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.05.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 052012

12/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 54.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.42
1st Peak @ 88.54 – 0501 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 88.12 – 0513 (13 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by a point. This caused a small long spike of 12 ticks that was unsustainable and could not reach the 200 SMA only 3 ticks higher. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 88.47 with no slippage, then seen it hover around your fill point to a few ticks positive. I placed my exit on the 200 SMA, and when it did not fill, it took my stop loss at 88.43 (moved up to just below the 100 SMA). The rally terminating 20 min before the report could not reach the 200 SMA, falling about 3 ticks short, matching the peak of the report. Then the reversal fell 42 ticks to cross the 100 and 50 SMAs and the PP Pivot to touch the LOD. Then it rebounded upward just before the oil inventory report.

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