Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 032012

10/3/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.6M
Actual: -0.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.55
1st Peak @ 89.90 – 0432 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 88.64 – 0503 (33 min)
126 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a moderate long spike for 35 ticks in 2 min. The spike went against the grain of the bearish dive to hit the 50 SMA, but could not rally any higher. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 89.69 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 12-18 ticks as it hovered around 89.85 for several seconds. As the market was already in a downtrend, the reversal quickly took over and fell methodically over the next 30 min for 126 ticks.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 032012

10/3/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 55.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.12
1st Peak @ 90.28 – 0401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 89.25 – 0408 (8 min)
103 ticks

Notes: Positive report moderately exceeded the forecast. This caused a 16 tick up spike on the :01 bar, which was unable to go any higher and promptly plummeted. Since the global economic fears took center stage again today, oil was selling off the entire session. This report caused a brief respite for the bulls, but when the report was realized, the bears took over and caused the huge reversal of 103 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled on the long entry at about 90.20, then had an opportunity to close out with about 5-7 ticks as it hovered hitting resistance at the 20 SMA. With the bearish mood of the day and the 20 SMA able to prevent any further upward movement, that is the place to get out before the nose dive.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 012012

10/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 49.8
Actual: 51.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.85
1st Peak @ 93.32 – 0404 (4 min)
47 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 92.76 – 0423 (23 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and had a reading above 50 for the first time in 4 months. This caused a healthy rally of 47 ticks in 4 bars (mostly on the :01 bar) that crossed the 50 SMA and the R2 Pivot to peak at the HOD reached 45 min earlier. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 3 ticks of slippage at 92.95, then had an opportunity to close with about 15 ticks as it hovered in the 93.10 area. The market was overbought in the very short term due to the rally of over 180 ticks in the previous 2.5 hrs. It backed off of the peak before the report, but the bulls were restrained, preventing an even higher rally or 2nd peak. The reversal was able to reclaim 56 ticks in a methodical drop to the 100 SMA in 23 min. It eventually dropped to the 200 SMA and lower, probably correcting the earlier rally, not the ISM report.

NG 11 12 (1 Min) 09.27.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 272012

9/27/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 80B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.264
1st Peak @ 3.247 – 0431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 3.280 – 0432 (2 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.210 – 0449 (19 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 3.249 – 0501 (31 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report with a large gain in supply caused a relatively dull reaction for the NG. After some initial noise, it drifted lower for 17 ticks, sitting on the R1 at the origin, then crossing the 100 and 200 SMAs on the short move. It retreated and left the entire tail naked, finishing where it started. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with no slippage at about 3.254. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 2-3 ticks where it hovered before retreating upward. The reversal quickly recovered above the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot for 33 ticks, then fell into the 2nd peak. The 2nd peak took 3 steps as it ratcheted lower for 54 ticks. With a near matching report, tame initial reaction, and the SMAs surrounding the action at the beginning, I would not be inclined to take a manual trade on this report. However, selling a rip on the :32 bar with a stop above the HOD at 3.290 would have been a safe play. Keep an eye on it as it crosses the 100 and 200 SMAs on the :33 and :34 bars (no large support influence), and closeout after the :34 bar.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.26.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 262012

9/26/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7M
Actual: -2.4M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.74
1st Peak @ 90.24 – 0431 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 89.12 – 0437 (7 min)
112 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a healthy long spike for 50 ticks in 1 min. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot, but was repelled by the 200 SMA, leaving 20 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 89.85 with 11 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 25-30 ticks as it hovered around 90.15 for several seconds. As the market was already in a downtrend, the spike and follow on bars could not penetrate the 100 or 200 SMAs, then the reversal took hold for over 100 ticks, mostly on the :37 bar. After the reversal, it chopped sideways for another 20 min, then slowly rose to correct the steep dro

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.25.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 252012

9/25/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 63.1
Actual: 70.3
Previous revision: +0.7 to 61.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.53
1st Peak @ 92.97 – 0401 (1 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.08 – 0412 (12 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 92.64 – 0440 (40 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast along with a small upward previous revision causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot on the rise with ease. At it pulled away from the peak it left 10 ticks naked on the wick and drifted another 9 ticks lower to test the 100 SMA, but was able to use it as support and achieve a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks on the :12 bar at 93.08, a level of resistance demonstrated on the bullish trend in the last 3 hrs. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 92.64 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at about 92.90 with 26 ticks where it slowly pulled away from the peak. It would also be a safe trade to short the reversal from the 2nd peak with the clear resistance at 93.08 and the 3 SMAs about 30 ticks lower. Close out when it penetrates the 200.

NG 10 12 (1 Min) 09.20.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 202012

9/20/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 66B
Actual: 67B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 2.806
1st Peak @ 2.767 – 0431 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 2.821 – 0434 (4 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a medium and unsustainable short spike that crossed the 100 SMA at the origin, and the 200 SMA / PP Pivot about halfway down its path. There is no obvious level of support at the peak of the spike, but it hovered within 15 ticks of the bottom for over 15 sec before leaving 30 ticks on the bar tail naked and heading into the reversal. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 10 ticks of slippage at about 2.786. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 10 ticks where it hovered. The reversal quickly recovered above the 200 SMA, tried once more to penetrate, then rallied for a total of 54 ticks to the HOD on the :34 bar. Then it fell again and seesawed around the 200 SMA for the next hour.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.20.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 202012

9/20/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 374K
Actual: 382K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 92.05
1st Peak @ 91.96 – 0231 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 92.14 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by only 8K jobs. This caused a slow moving spike of 9 ticks that would have filled JOBB with no slippage, then hovered at the break even point before reversing for 18 ticks later in the bar. Close out at break even before the reversal slowly marches toward the stop loss. It may have had a 2nd peak at the 0239 point on the sharp drop, but it is inconclusive if that move was due to the claims.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.20.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Sep 202012

9/20/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -4.1
Actual: -1.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.74
1st Peak @ 92.03 – 0402 (2 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.37 – 0407 (7 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 91.86 – 0424 (24 min)
51 ticks

Notes: Report barely exceeded the forecast, and yet it drew a large spike and 2nd Peak. In contrast to last month with about the same forecast to actual offset, we got a large reaction instead of a dull one. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 91.80 with no slippage, then the safe approach would be to close out at the 200 SMA where it encountered resistance on the :01 bar. If you stayed in, the end of the :02 bar would have given you another 14 ticks after crossing all 3 SMAs. The next bar was flat before the 2nd peak yielded another 34 ticks in 4 bars. With a sharp rise of 63 ticks on a barely positive report, this would be a good opportunity to trade the reversal as it is overbought in the very short term. It initially dropped 30 ticks, then made another attempt to break through the 92.35 area. After failing, it fell for 51 ticks to eclipse the 200 and 100 SMAs.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 192012

9/19/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.2M
Actual: 8.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.79
1st Peak @ 92.21 – 0431 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 93.11 – 0441 (11 min)
90 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventory when nearly no change was expected caused a healthy short spike for 58 ticks in 1 min. This was the strongest gain and offset from the forecast in 5 months and due to a spontaneous release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the market had already sold off about $2 in the 90 min before the report. Still the drop carved out a new LOD and sustained most of the drop until the new bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 92.59 with 10 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 20 or more ticks as it hovered around 92.35 for several seconds. The market was already trading below all 3 major SMAs at the report release and testing the support of the S3 Pivot at the time of the release. The oversold condition and the strong support of the S3 Pivot prevented a much larger drop. After the spike on the :31 bar, it reversed strongly for 47 ticks on the :32 bar then another 43 ticks in the next 9 min, crossing the 50 SMA. Then it eventually stepped lower in the next several hours as the gravity sunk in.

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