Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.18.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 182012

10/18/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 367K
Actual: 388K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.15
1st Peak @ 92.05 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.84 – 0236 (6 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 92.18 – 0243 (13 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 21K jobs. This was partly anticipated due to the artificially low report from the previous week which excluded California. Since the market was already bearish in the very short term, the initial spike was small, but the next few bars made up for it to deliver 31 ticks total. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 92.08 with no slippage, then seen it hover just below your fill for the rest of the bar. You could play it conservatively and close out with a tick or 2, or check the result, and patiently wait for a larger reaction due to the disappointing result. The S1 Pivot is a convenient target, so set your buy limit there. The reversal was able to bounce back for 34 ticks in about 7 min.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.17.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 172012

10/17/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.4M
Actual: 2.9M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 92.57
1st Peak @ 92.40 – 0431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 92.65 – 0431 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.55 – 0511 (41 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 92.07 – 0540 (70 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventory when a lesser gain was expected caused slow developing short reaction that had to contend with the SMAs. Initially the short reaction could not challenge the 200 SMA and retreated upward. The second attempt was successful and triggered a fan for a 40 min selloff. Unfortunately with JOBB, you would have filled short at about 92.47, then gotten stopped out when it retreated up to 92.65. The selling impetus was not initially strong enough to punch through the 200 SMA. If you had been quick, I would advise moving the stop loss a few ticks higher to above the 50 SMA, then you would have been safe to ride the heat and catch the profit on the delayed short move. The 2nd peak claimed over 100 ticks in 41 min to bottom out just above the S1 Pivot, then the reversal retreated upward for 52 ticks in 30 min crossing the PP Pivot and the 50 SMA, but unable to reach the 100 SMA.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.15.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 152012

10/15/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.26
1st Peak @ 92.43 – 0231 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 92.11 – 0243 (13 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive on both the core and actual reading including an upward revision on the previous readings. Empire State manufacturing broke at the same time and was fairly negative. Since the market had just hit the HOD and was in a bearish correction, the long spike was relatively small and could not go above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 92.34 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with a handful of ticks just below the 50 SMA where it hovered. The bearish sentiment and the negative Empire State report caused the reversal to take over quickly and make a short move to the 200 SMA 10 min later for 32 ticks.

ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 10.11.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Oct 112012

10/11/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 738.00 – 0229
1st Peak @ 763.25 – 0232 (3 min)
101 ticks

2nd Peak @ 772.50 – 0235 (6 min)
138 ticks

Reversal to 756.25 – 0241 (11 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a large long spike of 101 ticks over 3 min, crossing no SMAs, but the R1 – R3 Pivots. It encountered the first resistance at the R3 Pivot, struggling in that area from the end of the :31 bar to the :34 bar. Prior to the report, the market had been trading in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 22 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 740.00 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 80 ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Pivot on the :31 bar. It achieved a 2nd peak of 37 more ticks on the :35 bar, then reversed for 65 ticks in the next 6 min, eclipsing the 13 SMA. This is the biggest move yet.

NG 11 12 (1 Min) 10.11.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 112012

10/11/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 72B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.511
1st Peak @ 3.592 – 0431 (1 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 3.568 – 0433 (3 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.628 – 0507 (37 min)
117 ticks

Reversal to 3.557 – 0635 (125 min)
71 ticks

Notes: Lesser gain in supply compared to what was expected caused a large long spike of 81 ticks. The initial spike crossed the R1 and R2 Pivots with ease. After a small reversal of 24 ticks, it geared up for a 2nd peak of 117 ticks total over 30 min later. The reversal reclaimed 71 ticks in about 90 min crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs, then bottoming out at the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled at about 3.550 with about 30 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 30 ticks as it methodically rose and stayed near the top of the bar.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.11.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 112012

10/11/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 1.3M
Actual: 1.7M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.48
1st Peak @ 92.64 – 0501 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 92.30 – 0506 (6 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.73 – 0516 (16 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 91.79 – 0552 (52 min)
94 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventory when a lesser gain was expected caused a relatively dull reaction for a long spike of 16 ticks in 1 min. With a result not much different than the forecast the reaction was trapped between the 50 SMA on the high side and the 100/200 SMAs on the low side. After the initial spike, we saw alternating bars with tails and wicks test these areas. The 2nd peak was briefly able to achieve 25 ticks, then the reversal eventually fell for 94 ticks. With JOBB, you would not have filled until 23 sec into the :01 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. If you stayed the course, you would have filled long at 92.58 with no slippage, then had a brief opportunity to close out with about 2-3 ticks as it hovered for about 10 sec above the 50 SMA before retreating.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.05.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 052012

10/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 114K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 114K
Previous Revision: +46K to 142K
Rate Forecast: 8.2%
Rate Actual: 7.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.49
1st Peak @ 91.71 – 0233 (3 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 90.92 – 0237 (7 min)
79 ticks

Extended Reversal to 90.17 – 0345 (75 min)
154 ticks

Notes: We got our October surprise with this report. A matching jobs # with the forecast, but a whopping 0.4% drop in the rate. The market initially reacted long on the news in the first 3 bars, going from the LOD to the HOD for 122 ticks. The spike crossed the PP Pivot, then all 3 SMAs on top of each other. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 90.67 with 8 ticks of slippage. If you look at the range chart you will notice it initially jumped up about 30 ticks, then proceeded to seesaw between 90.80 and 91.10 (30 ticks range) for the next 5 sec. Then it dipped to test the PP Pivot and bounced long up to 91.28 to close out the :31 bar near its high. After seeing the seesaw activity, I would place a sell limit order at about 91.05, 5 ticks below the upper limit, which would have filled toward the end of the bar with about a 40 tick profit. The next 2 bars continued higher for another 50 ticks, but that is not typical or predictable. As the internals of the BOLS report became suspicious where most of the drop in the rate was attributed to nearly 600K part-time jobs, the market began to sell off. The initial reversal reclaimed 79 ticks in 4 min after the peak, then the extended reversal yielded 154 ticks over an hour later. The market continued to sell off until about 12 pm Eastern.

CL 11 12 (2 Range) 10.05.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 052012

NG 11 12 (1 Min) 10.04.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 042012

10/4/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 72B
Actual: 77B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.428
1st Peak @ 3.360 – 0431 (1 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 3.437 – 0439 (9 min)
77 ticks

Notes: Another Nearly matching report with a large gain in supply caused a healthy short spike. The initial spike crossed all 3 SMAs near the origin on its downward path. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.395. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 20 ticks where it hovered around 3.375 as the bar was expiring. The reversal found its legs on the :37-:39 bars, claiming 77 ticks as it rebounded through the 3 major SMAs, and the PP Pivot.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.04.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Oct 042012

10/4/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -6.0%
Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 88.98
Peak @ 88.87 – 0402 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 89.43 – 0419 (19 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Odd but very negative report overall despite a reading better than the forecast. This caused the market to short 11 ticks crossing the PP Pivot, 100 and 50 SMAs, then rebound into a much larger reversal in the following 17 min. Normally the forecast and reading of this report is within the range of +/- 1.5%. The forecast of -6.0% was very abnormal. Even with a better result, the big picture is still very dismal. The large reversal long was due to the dollar dropping significantly on the news. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 88.91, then had an opportunity to close out at break even or with a handful of ticks if you waited on the :02 bar. The reversal was aided by the strong support of all the SMAs and the PP near or below the origin.

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