Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.25.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 252012

7/25/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.1M
Actual: 2.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.48
1st Peak @ 87.60 – 0434 (4 min)
88 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.84 – 0506 (36 min)
164 ticks

Reversal to 87.49 – 0540 (70 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in supply when a tiny drop was expected caused a healthy downward spike and 2nd peak. With the market already selling off, the report went with the grain and continued the momentum. The 50 SMA was crossed at the origin, and the PP/S1 Pivots were also crossed enroute to the 1st peak. The 2nd peak eclipsed the S2 Pivot to bottom out at 86.84 in 36 min, then the reversal reclaimed 65 ticks 34 min later crossing the 50. With JOBB, I would have gotten out on 0434 bar with about 70 ticks on the board.

NG 08 12 (1 Min) 07.19.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 192012

7/19/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 34B
Actual: 28B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.934
1st Peak @ 3.015 – 0431 (1 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 2.971 – 0433 (3 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.032 – 0437 (7 min)
98 ticks

Reversal to 2.943 – 0444 (14 min)
89 ticks

Notes: Less than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large long spike and 2nd peak with a large quick acting reversal. All 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot were crossed near the origin. After a retracement for 44 ticks on the :33 bar, the 2nd peak claimed another 17 ticks beyond the initial spike on the :37 bar. Then the reversal achieved 89 in a relatively quick 7 min, before bouncing higher again off of all 3 SMAs.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.19.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jul 192012

7/19/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -7.9
Actual: -12.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.03
1st Peak @ 91.65 – 0403 (3 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 91.89 – 0405 (5 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.60 – 0414 (14 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 92.04 – 0431 (31 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report fell moderately short of the forecast causing a healthy short spike, that eclipsed the 50 SMA. It then reversed for 24 ticks, bouncing off of the 50 SMA, but was able to carve out a 2nd peak for 5 more ticks to just above the 100 SMA before reversing for 44 ticks. The overall trend before the report was bullish, so even with a negative report, the reversal reclaimed all of the drop from the initial reaction. Then the market continued higher in the long run. With JOBB this would have been a great setup to take at least 12 ticks on the :01 bar and at least 20 if you rode it to the 50 SMA.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.19.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 192012

7/19/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 367K
Actual: 386K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 91.50
1st Peak @ 91.24 – 0234 (4 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 91.52 – 0242 (12 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report came in considerably worse than the forecast by nearly 20K jobs. This caused a short spike of 26 ticks drawn out over 4 bars that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, and sought out the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 28 ticks to the level before the report was released on the :42 bar. The short move that started on the :49 bar may have been a 2nd peak, but the influence of jobless claims is normally only felt on the spikes until a max of 15 min, so I conservatively left it off. With JOBB, your order would have filled short. If you exited at the 100 SMA, that would have been a wise and safe move for minimal gain, but when it did not retrace above the 100 SMA, it has conviction to drop. Then the 200 SMA is an ideal exit.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 182012

7/18/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: -0.8M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 89.69
1st Peak @ 89.87 / Retrace to 89.63 – 0431 (1 min)
18 ticks / -6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 89.31 – 0433 (3 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 90.32 – 0458 (28 min)
101 ticks

Notes: Small loss of inventory when a small gain was expected. The close proximity to the 0 line and the small margin caused indecision. The :31 bar was indecisive, then the market briefly dropped to cross all 3 major SMAs before reversing on the :33 bar to shoot up for 101 ticks in 25 min. With gasoline numbers dropping, along with the crude, and the dollar notching lower, the market rallied strongly. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at about 80.82, and had little opportunity for profit before it retraced down to 80.63 below the stop loss.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.16.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Jul 162012

7/16/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 86.88
1st Peak @ 86.80 – 0231 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 87.02 – 0234 (4 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative, falling short of the forecast across the board with no previous report revision. Empire State Manufacturing broke at the same same and was moderately positive. Normally the aggregate of bearish news would cause a strong short move, but 2 factors prevented that. 1) There was strong support in the 86.80 area that had been tested several times in the previous 12 hrs without failing, and 2) the news was so negative that the dollar fell precipitously for 30 minutes thus mitigating the bearish sentiment on oil. With JOBB you may have filled at the lower limit or missed the spike by 1 tick with slippage. In either case, when it fails to shoot downward after the initial drop, close out. The reversal reclaimed 22 ticks in 4 min, bouncing off of the 86.80 level and stalling just above the 200 SMA after crossing all 3 major SMAs. As the dollar continued to fall for an hour after the report release, we saw a rally on the CL for nearly 100 ticks coinciding.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 122012

7/12/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 376K
Actual: 350K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 84.66
1st Peak @ 84.78 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 84.59 – 0233 (3 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.81 – 0239 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 84.47 – 0243 (13 min)
34 ticks (3x bottom)

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 350K when 376K was expected. This was a 4-year low on the raw data and face of it, but when the seasonal factors were considered, it muted the enthusiasm. The reading came in artificially low due to the 4th of July holiday. It falls into the category of a 2nd peak, but really is a dull report with only 15 ticks on a 2nd peak. The initial spike of 12 ticks eclipsed the 200 SMA, then fell to touch the 50 SMA, then climbed for a 2nd peak 3 ticks above the initial peak just above the 200 SMA. The reversal was strong to go for a triple bottom at the 84.47 level from an hour earlier.

NG 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 122012

7/12/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 27B
Actual: 33B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.860
1st Peak @ 2.730 – 0431 (1 min)
130 ticks

Reversal to 2.784 – 0434 (4 min)
54 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.720 – 0442 (12 min)
140 ticks

Reversal to 2.853 – 0555 (85 min)
133 ticks

Notes: Greater than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large short spike and 2nd peak with a large but slow developing reversal. All 3 SMAs were crossed near the origin, then the PP Pivot was crossed about halfway down the :31 bar and the S1 Pivot was crossed near the bottom. After a retracement for 54 ticks on the :34 bar, the 2nd peak claimed another 10 ticks beyond the initial spike on the :42 bar. Then the reversal achieved 133 ticks over an hour later after going sideways for 45 min just above the S1 Pivot and on the 50 SMA.

ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 112012

7/11/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 726.00 – 0229
1st Peak @ 746.75 – 0233 (4 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 727.75 – 0254 (25 min)
76 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a large long spike of 83 ticks over 4 min, crossing no SMAs, but the R2 – R3 Pivots. It peaked 33 ticks above the R3 Pivot, so no real resistance was encountered. Prior to the report, the market had been trending upward, but still just breaking out of a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 25 ticks before the HOD was extended. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 728.50 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 40 ticks at the R3 level as it eclipsed the R3 Pivot then sought out much more. It reversed for 76 ticks in the next 21 min, eclipsing the R2 Pivot and nearly reaching the 100 SMA. After that it bounced up to the R3 Pivot, fell again to the 100 SMA, came back up to the R3 Pivot, then became sandwiched between the R3 Pivot and 100 SMA.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jul 112012

7/11/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -48.5B
Actual: -48.7B
Previous Revision: -0.5B to -50.6B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 84.86
1st Peak @ 85.05 – 0232 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 84.86 – 0234 (4 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.17 – 0246 (16 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 84.95 – 0256 (26 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast, with a small previous report revision. Still it yielded a small spike that corrected the short term oversold condition and reacted to the falling dollar. It climbed above the 200 SMA and nicked the 50 SMA before retracing. The 2nd peak was able to eclipse the 100 SMA, then the reversal fell just below the 50 and 200 SMAs.

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