Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 4.05.2013

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May 022013

4/5/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 198K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 88K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 146’24

1st Peak @ 147’24 – 0831 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 147’16 – 0832 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’00 – 0834 (4 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 147’15 – 0847 (17 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 148’02 – 0911 (41 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 147’19 – 0923 (53 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Very negative report overall showing 110K less jobs created than expected, and a 0.1% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate due to shrinkage of the labor force. This caused the bonds to rally for 32 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing the 50 SMA and the R2 Pivot near the origin, then peaking at the R3 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 146’30 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture about 20-24 ticks on the :31 bar, or up to 30 ticks on the :33 or :34 bars. Due to the R3 Pivot and the strong resistance normally accompanying, I elected to exit on the R3 Pivot for 24 ticks. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed minimally for 8 ticks on the :32 bar, then rose again for a quick 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 3 min. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in about 13 min to the area where the 13 and 20 intersected, before popping back up for a slightly higher final peak of 2 more ticks in 25 min. Then the final reversal eclipsed the 50 SMA and R3 Pivot for 15 ticks in 12 min. After that it continued to trade between the R3 Pivot and the HOD. Another amazing trade on the ZB!

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 3.08.2013

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May 022013

3/8/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 162K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 236K
Previous Revision: +41K to 196K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’26

1st Peak @ 140’18 – 0831 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 141’01 – 0833 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 140’14 – 0837 (7 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 141’11 – 1013 (103 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Very positive report overall showing 74K more jobs created than expected, and a 0.2% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate, in spite of a strong downward revision to the previous report. This caused the bonds to fall for 40 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot near the origin, the S2 Pivot and peaking just above the S3 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 141’19 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 30 ticks as it bottomed at 140’18 several times. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed back up for 15 ticks on the :33 bar, then fell again for a quick 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 7 min to nick the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 29 ticks in about 90 min to the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. Another amazing trade on the ZB!

ZB 03-13 (1 Min) 2.01.2013

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May 022013

2/1/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 161K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 157K
Previous Revision: +41K to 196K
Rate Forecast: 7.8%
Rate Actual: 7.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 143’01

1st Peak @ 143’25 – 0831 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 143’08 – 0839 (9 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 144’13 – 0935 (65 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 143’18 – 1010 (100 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Mixed report overall showing a matching reading on the job creation, a disappointing unemployment U-3 rate, and an strong upward revision to the previous report. This caused the bonds to rally for 24 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot near the origin and peaking just below the R1 Pivot. The long reactions are due to the job #s, while the short reactions are due to the uptick in the rate. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 143’05 with no slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 19 ticks as it peaked twice at 143’25. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed back to the 20 SMA and the PP Pivot, then climbed for a prolonged 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in the next hour 8 ticks above the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in about 30 min to the 200 SMA.

CL 02 13 (2 Range) 01.04.13

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Jan 042013

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.04.13

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Jan 042013

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(CL)
Started @ 92.14
1st Peak @ 91.92 – 0831 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 92.40 – 0832 (2 min)
48 ticks

Extended Reversal to 92.99 – 1001 (91 min)
107 ticks

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(TF)
Started @ 872.3
1st Peak @ 870.0 – 0831 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 873.7 – 0837 (7 min)
37 ticks

1/4/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 H0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 150K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 155K
Previous Revision: +15K to 161K
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.8%

SPIKE/REVERSE
(ZB)
Started @ 143’29
1st Peak @ 144’14 – 0831 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 143’21 – 0839 (9 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Overall matching report with little fireworks…only 5K more jobs created than anticipated, a previous revision of +15K jobs, offset by a rise in the U-3 rate of 0.1%. This drove a tame market reaction, causing a short term bearish reaction that reversed upward on the CL and TF, and a rally, then reversal on the ZB. Both the CL and the TF peaked just a few seconds into the :01 bar for 20-30 ticks, then reversed to breakeven briefly, before reversing strongly into the :02 bar. As they were already trading above the major SMAs, the CL crossed the 50 SMA and bottomed at the 100 SMA, and the TF crossed the PP, R1 Pivots, the HOD, then nearly reached the R2 Pivot. Once again, the ZB outperformed both of the other indexes, rallying 17 ticks on the first bar (equivalent of about 51 ticks on the CL or TF), crossing the S1 Pivot about halfway up the spike. I traded the ZB with a 3 tick bracket, filling long at 144’01 with 1 ticks of slippage, then got out with 11 ticks at 144’12. After peaking, it reversed for 25 ticks in 8 min through all the major SMAs and bottomed at the S2 Pivot. Then it oscillated higher over the next hr.

We continue to recommend the ZB at the preferred index as demonstrated with a matching report, the ZB still generated 17 ticks (about 13 max capturable), and was stable in holding the peak unlike the CL and TF.

CL 01 13 (2 Range) 12.07.12

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Dec 072012

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.07.12

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Dec 072012

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(CL)
Started @ 86.28
1st Peak @ 86.89 – 0332 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 86.07 – 0422 (52 min)
82 ticks

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(TF)
Started @ 819.7
1st Peak @ 827.0 – 0333 (3 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 819.1 – 0501 (91 min)
79 ticks

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(ZB)
Started @ 150’19
1st Peak @ 149’16 – 0332 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 149’25 – 0334 (4 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 149’11 – 0344 (14 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 149’28 – 0407 (37 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Overall positive report with almost 60K jobs more created than anticipated and a drop in the U-3 rate of 0.2%. This drove the markets to bullish reaction with CL and TF rallying, and the ZB falling. Both the CL and the TF peaked on after the :01 bar for 60-70+ ticks, double topped a few min later, then reversed for about 10-20% more ticks than the spike 50-90 min later. As they were already trading above the major SMAs, the CL only crossed the PP Pivot and the HOD, and the TF crossed the PP, R1 Pivots, the HOD, then nearly reached the R2 Pivot. Once again, the ZB outperformed both of the other indexes, falling 35 ticks on the first 2 bars (equivalent of about 105 ticks on the CL or TF), crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin, and the PP – S3 Pivots. I traded the ZB with a 3 tick bracket, filling short at 150’12 with 4 ticks of slippage, then got out early and conservatively with 14 ticks at 149’30. After peaking, it reversed for 9 ticks, then fell for 14 ticks to a 2nd peak at 149’11. The final reversal reclaimed 17 ticks to eclipse the 50 SMA about 35 min after the report.

It is likely the slippage on the CL and TF would have exceeded 10 ticks. I have a few anecdotes from those who traded those and made 15-25 ticks. With the slippage less, and the profit potential much larger on the ZB, that is the recommended index for now.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.02.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Nov 022012

11/2/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 123K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 171K
Previous Revision: +34K to 148K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.9%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 86.40
1st Peak @ 87.10 – 0231 (1 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 86.54 – 0232 (2 min)
56 ticks

Extended Reversal to 85.27 – 0449 (139 min)
183 ticks

Notes: After the October surprise, this report corrected somewhat, but a large correction is still likely in the future. Nearly 50k more jobs were created than the forecast, with a forecast matching rate, but an uptick of 0.1% from October. The market initially reacted long on the jobs news in the first bar, crossing the PP Pivot and peaking 5 ticks above the HOD for 70 ticks. Then it pulled back strongly to the 13 SMA for 56 ticks. It tried to climb again for a 2nd peak, but could go no higher than 87.03, 7 ticks off the 1st peak. Then it began an epic reversal reacting to the uptick in the rate for 183 ticks over the next 2 hrs.
With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 86.57 with about 7 ticks of slippage. If you look at the range chart you will notice it initially jumped up about 70 ticks, hit its peak instantaneously, then proceeded to chop lower to the end of the bar. I would setup a sell limit at or just above the PP Pivot (86.86 – 86.90). It would have popped up to 86.95 at 20-25 sec into the candle and allowed your order to be filled with about 30 ticks of profit.

CL 12 12 (2 Range) 11.02.12

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Nov 022012

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.05.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 052012

10/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 114K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 114K
Previous Revision: +46K to 142K
Rate Forecast: 8.2%
Rate Actual: 7.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.49
1st Peak @ 91.71 – 0233 (3 min)
122 ticks

Reversal to 90.92 – 0237 (7 min)
79 ticks

Extended Reversal to 90.17 – 0345 (75 min)
154 ticks

Notes: We got our October surprise with this report. A matching jobs # with the forecast, but a whopping 0.4% drop in the rate. The market initially reacted long on the news in the first 3 bars, going from the LOD to the HOD for 122 ticks. The spike crossed the PP Pivot, then all 3 SMAs on top of each other. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 90.67 with 8 ticks of slippage. If you look at the range chart you will notice it initially jumped up about 30 ticks, then proceeded to seesaw between 90.80 and 91.10 (30 ticks range) for the next 5 sec. Then it dipped to test the PP Pivot and bounced long up to 91.28 to close out the :31 bar near its high. After seeing the seesaw activity, I would place a sell limit order at about 91.05, 5 ticks below the upper limit, which would have filled toward the end of the bar with about a 40 tick profit. The next 2 bars continued higher for another 50 ticks, but that is not typical or predictable. As the internals of the BOLS report became suspicious where most of the drop in the rate was attributed to nearly 600K part-time jobs, the market began to sell off. The initial reversal reclaimed 79 ticks in 4 min after the peak, then the extended reversal yielded 154 ticks over an hour later. The market continued to sell off until about 12 pm Eastern.

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