2/1/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 161K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 157K
Previous Revision: +41K to 196K
Rate Forecast: 7.8%
Rate Actual: 7.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 143’01
1st Peak @ 143’25 – 0831 (1 min)
24 ticks
Reversal to 143’08 – 0839 (9 min)
17 ticks
Final Peak @ 144’13 – 0935 (65 min)
44 ticks
Reversal to 143’18 – 1010 (100 min)
27 ticks
Notes: Mixed report overall showing a matching reading on the job creation, a disappointing unemployment U-3 rate, and an strong upward revision to the previous report. This caused the bonds to rally for 24 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot near the origin and peaking just below the R1 Pivot. The long reactions are due to the job #s, while the short reactions are due to the uptick in the rate. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 143’05 with no slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 19 ticks as it peaked twice at 143’25. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed back to the 20 SMA and the PP Pivot, then climbed for a prolonged 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in the next hour 8 ticks above the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in about 30 min to the 200 SMA.