Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/20/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 343K
Actual: 354K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010225
1st Peak @ 0.010247 – 0831 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.010234 – 0832 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.010256 – 0837 (7 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.010224 – 0853 (23 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast by 11k jobs, causing a long spike of 22 ticks on 1 bar after the market had been trading sideways above the SMAs. It crossed the S2 Mid Pivot, peaked about 6 ticks higher, then pulled back for a 13 tick reversal on the :32 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at about 0.010231 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait for it to target the S2 Mid Pivot for 10+ ticks. After the reversal of 13 ticks, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks as it encountered resistance in the 0.010250 area. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the following 16 min, reaching the 100 SMA.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 6.6.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 112013

6/6/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 345K
Actual: 346K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010093
1st Peak @ 0.010112 – 0831 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.010081 – 0831 (1 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010062 – 0854 (24 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast causing an indecisive reaction. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA, then shot long for 19 ticks and reversed for 31 ticks in millisec to stop you out and trigger the knife switch with slippage. The long move nearly reached the R1 Pivot and the short move eclipsed the OOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at .010108 with 10 ticks of slippage, then stopped out at 0.010088 with 10 ticks of slippage immediately. After the :31 bar, it continued lower for an extended reversal of 50 ticks in 24 min. Then it popped back up and chopped sideways.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.23.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242013

5/23/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 347K
Actual: 340K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.009859
1st Peak @ 0.009825 – 0832 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.009861 – 0845 (15 min)
36 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009871 – 0906 (36 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 7k jobs, causing a short spike of 34 ticks on 2 bars after the market had rallied slightly in the 10 min before the report. It crossed all 3 SMAs and the R3 Mid Pivot finding support at a short term barrier not penetrated in the last hour at 0.009827. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :30 bar at about 0.009854 with 1 tick of slippage on a slightly premature move. Then it popped back up to just below the stop loss and fell on the :31 bar. Look to exit at about the 100 SMA for 17 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed quickly for 36 ticks back to the origin in 15 min. Then it fell back to the R3 Mid Pivot before rallying again for an extended reversal of 10 more ticks 20 min later.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.9.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242013

5/9/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 333K
Actual: 323K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010128
1st Peak @ 0.010112 – 0831 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.010124 – 0844 (14 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010061 – 0934 (64 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 0.010086 – 1029 (119 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 10k jobs, causing a short spike of 16 ticks on 1 bar after the market had been trading sideways in a tight fist. It found support on the S1 Mid Pivot, and crossed the 50/100 SMAs at the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 0.010121 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait for it to target the S1 Mid Pivot for 6 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 12 ticks, then continued lower for a 2nd peak of 51 more ticks, bottoming in between the S3 Mid Pivot and the S3 Pivot about 1 hr later. Then it reversed slowly for only 25 ticks in the following hr, eclipsing the 200 SMA.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.2.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 232013

5/2/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 346K
Actual: 324K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010213
1st Peak @ 0.010187 – 0831 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010165 – 0839 (9 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.010248 – 0931 (61 min)
83 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 18k jobs, causing a short spike of 26 ticks on 2 bars after a selloff had commenced about 30 min earlier. It found support on the S3 Mid Pivot, but did not cross any SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 0.010206 with 2 ticks of slippage, then either close out as the :31 bar is expiring, or wait for it to target the S3 Mid Pivot for 14 ticks. After the 1st peak, it pulled back about 9 ticks, then continued lower for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks at the S3 Pivot. After that, it reversed for 83 ticks in about 50 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA.

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.25.13

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/25/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 352K
Actual: 339K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1453.4
1st Peak @ 1451.4 – 0831 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1453.6 – 0835 (5 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1444.7 – 0939 (69 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 1457.4 – 1023 (113 min)
127 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 13k jobs, but caused a relatively muted reaction of only 20 ticks after a huge rally of about 100 ticks in the 30 min before the report. After establishing a much higher HOD, it backed off, then the bearish report was released and it could not go lower than the R3 Pivot and 13 SMA for about 30 min. Then it finally fell for a 2nd peak of 87 ticks culminating over an hour after the report to eclipse the R3 Mid Pivot. After that the reversal popped back up 127 ticks in about 45 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1452.3 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity for a handful of ticks. I waited several min, expecting a drop through the R3 Pivot. After 10 min, I closed out fearing the influence of the report would be waning and it could resume the rally from earlier.

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.18.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/18/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 349K
Actual: 352K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1399.6
1st Peak @ 1397.1 – 0831 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1401.9 – 0919 (49 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching the forecast, causing an indecisive scenario with a 25 tick short spike then a 48 tick reversal. The spike nicked the 100 SMA, then reversed to hit the HOD and retreated to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1398.4 with 2 ticks of slippage, then been stopped at 1400.6 with 2 ticks of slippage for 22 tick loss. After the indecision, it trended lower to eventually eclipse the PP Pivot.

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.11.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/11/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 362K
Actual: 346K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1561.6
1st Peak @ 1555.5 – 0832 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 1561.7 – 0919 (49 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Report came in much better than the forecast by 16K jobs, causing a 61 tick short spike on 2 bars. The spike crossed all 3 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot, bottoming in between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot. This area was a proven support area from 90 min earlier. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1560.2 with 4 ticks of slippage. With the decisive news, look to go for a few more ticks safely. The 200 SMA served as support briefly, then it was decisively conquered on the :32 bar. If you exited on the :31 bar, you could have taken about 12 ticks, but if you were patient and waited on the :32 bar, you could have exited with more than 40 ticks with ease. After it stalled out near the peak for about 5 min, it developed enough stored up divergence to rebound back to the origin. The reversal took over 45 min and struggled for about 30 min to conquer the SMAs for 62 ticks. After that it stepped up for several higher peaks.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.28.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

3/28/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 340K
Actual: 357K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.27
1st Peak @ 96.48 – 0832 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 96.33 – 0840 (10 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.78 – 0936 (66 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 96.47 – 0947 (77 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly weaker than the forecast by 17K jobs, causing a 21 tick long spike on 2 bars. As the report was released right after a large bearish move in the market, the spike hit resistance on the falling 13 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 96.33 with 1 tick of slippage. With the decisive news and the oversold market, look to go for a few more ticks safely. The dollar was falling to enhance the rally in the CL. You could have exited with 10-12 ticks on the :31 or :32 bar. If you stayed in for a longer term, look for a decisive 2nd peak after the pit open. It had to fight through all of the SMAs, but the 200 SMA would have been a good target at about 96.65 for over 30 ticks. After the 2nd peak was attained at 96.78, it reversed for 27 ticks in 11 min.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.21.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

3/21/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 343K
Actual: 336K
DULL REACTION (FILL)
Started @ 93.24
1st Peak @ 93.16 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 93.30 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 93.43 – 0841 (11 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 7K jobs, causing an 8 tick short spike that quickly reversed 14 ticks by the end of the :31 bar. The initial drop crossed the 50/100 SMAs and PP Pivot right on top of each other at 93.20. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at 93.18 with 1 tick of slippage just below the overlapping support, then seen it pop back long and hover around 5 ticks in the red until about 5 sec left of the bar. Look to close out there. After that it would have taken out your stop loss of 8 ticks. With the news being positive, the initial short move was likely a robotic HFT in the wrong direction. The bullish sentiment prevailed in the following 10 min, causing an extended reversal of 27 ticks, eclipsing the OOD on the :41 bar. Then it chopped sideways until the pit open initiated a selloff.

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