Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 2.14.2013

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May 052013

2/14/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 361K
Actual: 341K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.18
1st Peak @ 97.33 – 0834 (4 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 97.04 – 0858 (28 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.54 – 0914 (44 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 97.28 – 0933 (63 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 20K jobs, causing a 15 tick spike realized on the :34 bar. Since the market was already trending upward, this continued the momentum, but it had to contend with the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 97.24 with 1 tick of slippage on the PP Pivot, then seen it hover around 5 ticks of your fill point until it popped up on the :34 bar. Look for 5-8 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 29 ticks just before the pit open, then achieved a 2nd peak of 36 ticks about 14 min after the open. The final reversal reclaimed 26 ticks in the next 20 min.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.31.2013

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May 052013

1/31/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 362K
Actual: 368K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 97.49
1st Peak @ 97.41 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 97.62 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly worse than the forecast by 6K jobs, causing a dull and unsustainable 8 tick reaction on the :31 bar. Since the market was already testing the LOD and the S1 Pivot, it reversed for 21 ticks in the following 8 min to just below the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at 97.42 with no slippage, then seen it hover in the red within a few ticks of our your fill position. With a result close to the forecast, look to exit near the break even.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.24.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

1/24/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 359K
Actual: 330K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.78
1st Peak @ 95.88 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 95.77 – 0832 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.12 – 0847 (17 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 95.88 – 0855 (25 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by almost 30K jobs, but only caused a 10 tick spike initially that ran into the barely established HOD and promptly fell on the next bar back to the origin. After the initial move, it trended higher riding the 13 and 20 SMAs. It achieved a 2nd peak of 34 ticks about 15 min after the 1st peak, then reversed for 24 ticks in the following 8 min to just above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 95.85 with no slippage, then seen it hover within a few ticks of your fill position. The conservative play would be to get out near break even; however, if you noticed the results of the report and the market “failing to launch”, stay in and patiently wait for more. The triple top at 95.97 would have offered up to 10 ticks or the 3 strong long bars just after that offered a better exit. Remember if it shoots for a 2nd peak, the 17 min mark is often when it hits.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

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Nov 212012

11/21/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 415K
Actual: 410K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.78
1st Peak @ 87.46 – 0234 (4 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 87.65 – 0343 (13 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.40 – 0347 (17 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 87.88 – 0408 (38 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly better than the forecast by 5K jobs, but still above the psychologically negative 400K level. The trading community has gotten accustomed to #s in the 350-370 range, so anything north of 400 triggers the bears. This caused a slow developing but large sized short spike of 32 ticks in 4 min that had to cross all 3 SMAs. The PP Pivot had been tested a few times in the previous hour and served as resistance, aiding the selling momentum. With JOBB, you would not have filled on the :31 bar as it stayed in a 4 tick range. It would have been safe to cancel the order as indications of a dull reaction were evident. When it moved short of 87.71, breaking a short term support level, that would be a place where a follow on short entry could be made. Notice that it did not struggle with penetrating the 100 and 200 SMAs. The bars stop and start there, but there is little retracement. It would be safe to close out at or just below the 200. After the 1st peak, it reversed up to the 100 SMA, then achieved a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks. Then it reversed long for 48 ticks in about 20 min through the pit open, fighting through all 3 SMAs, then the PP Pivot for a double top at 87.88.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.01.12

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Nov 012012

11/1/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 371K
Actual: 363K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.25
1st Peak @ 86.42 – 0232 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.62 – 0242 (12 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 86.09 – 0302 (32 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Report came in moderately better than the forecast by 8K jobs. This causes a medium sized long spike of 17 ticks in 2 min that had to cross all 3 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 86.33 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover just above your fill for the rest of the bar. I would set a sell limit just above the 200 SMA and look to exit with about 5 ticks. After getting stuck around the 200 SMA for a few min, it was able to climb for a 2nd peak of 37 ticks about 10 min later. The reversal was able to bounce back for 53 ticks in about 20 min, most of it surrendered on after the pit open.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.18.12

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Oct 182012

10/18/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 367K
Actual: 388K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.15
1st Peak @ 92.05 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.84 – 0236 (6 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 92.18 – 0243 (13 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 21K jobs. This was partly anticipated due to the artificially low report from the previous week which excluded California. Since the market was already bearish in the very short term, the initial spike was small, but the next few bars made up for it to deliver 31 ticks total. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 92.08 with no slippage, then seen it hover just below your fill for the rest of the bar. You could play it conservatively and close out with a tick or 2, or check the result, and patiently wait for a larger reaction due to the disappointing result. The S1 Pivot is a convenient target, so set your buy limit there. The reversal was able to bounce back for 34 ticks in about 7 min.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.20.12

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Sep 202012

9/20/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 374K
Actual: 382K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 92.05
1st Peak @ 91.96 – 0231 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 92.14 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by only 8K jobs. This caused a slow moving spike of 9 ticks that would have filled JOBB with no slippage, then hovered at the break even point before reversing for 18 ticks later in the bar. Close out at break even before the reversal slowly marches toward the stop loss. It may have had a 2nd peak at the 0239 point on the sharp drop, but it is inconclusive if that move was due to the claims.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 062012

9/6/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 369K
Actual: 365K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.34
1st Peak @ 96.50 – 0231 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 96.07 – 0233 (3 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by only 4K jobs. With little impetus from the claims, most of the reaction was due to the ECB press conference happening at the same time to influence the EURO and $ strength. The initial spike crossed all 3 major SMAs then hit the R2 Pivot to fall from the resistance. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 96.41 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close with a handful of ticks in the next 15 sec before the market fell. The initial press conference prepared statement and the follow on Q and A drove the choppy trading in the next 45 min.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.30.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 302012

8/30/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 370K
Actual: 374K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.58
1st Peak @ 95.28 – 0235 (5 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.20 – 0238 (8 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 95.40 – 0248 (18 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by only 4K jobs. The market must have been in an overbought condition prior to the report to cause such a strong short reaction on a tepid report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 95.52 with minimal slippage. Since this report normally peaks on the :31 bar and all 3 major SMAs are acting as support, look to close out at or near the 50 SMA with 5-6 ticks. It continued lower for 30 ticks in 5 min and 38 ticks in 8 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs. Then it reversed to recover 20 ticks and got stuck between the 100 and 200 SMAs for several minutes.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.23.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 232012

8/23/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 365K
Actual: 372K
DULL REACTION then SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.84
1st Peak @ 97.79 / Reverse to 97.88 – 0233 (3 min)
-5 ticks / 4 ticks
Peak @ 97.45 – 0235 (5 min)
39 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.36 – 0301 (31 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 97.73 – 0318 (48 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast by only 7K jobs. This small deviation did not cause a strong reaction initially as the market strayed only 5 ticks away from the origin. However as the gravity of the first reading in a month to be worse than 370K set in, the bears drove the market for a strong delayed 39 tick short move. With JOBB, you should have canceled due to the dull reaction with no fill in 10 sec. After the drop, it chopped sideways for 25 min, then achieved a smaller 2nd peak of 9 more ticks after the pit open before the reversal advanced to eclipse the R1 Pivot.

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