May 052013
 

CL 03-13 (1 Min)  1_24_2013

1/24/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 359K
Actual: 330K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.78
1st Peak @ 95.88 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 95.77 – 0832 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.12 – 0847 (17 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 95.88 – 0855 (25 min)
24 ticks

Notes:  Report came in strongly better than the forecast by almost 30K jobs, but only caused a 10 tick spike initially that ran into the barely established HOD and promptly fell on the next bar back to the origin.  After the initial move, it trended higher riding the 13 and 20 SMAs. It achieved a 2nd peak of 34 ticks about 15 min after the 1st peak, then reversed for 24 ticks in the following 8 min to just above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 95.85 with no slippage, then seen it hover within a few ticks of your fill position.  The conservative play would be to get out near break even; however, if you noticed the results of the report and the market “failing to launch”, stay in and patiently wait for more.  The triple top at 95.97 would have offered up to 10 ticks or the 3 strong long bars just after that offered a better exit.   Remember if it shoots for a 2nd peak, the 17 min mark is often when it hits.