Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.2.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 202014

10/2/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 287K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.009198 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.009194 – 0.009200 – 0831 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009189 (At the area of support 0806) / 0.009180 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 0.009208 (on the 200 SMA) / 0.009217 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately strong with 12k offset. This caused a surprisingly dull reaction that only moved 6 ticks overall and 4 ticks from the anchor point. This would have fallen several ticks short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. The market kept trading in a narrow range until about 0840 when it rallied on the ECB press conference news.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.9.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 312014

10/9/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 291K
Actual: 287K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009288 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009278 – 0830:32 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009286 – 0831:28 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009274 – 0835 (5 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009284 – 0838 (8 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009271 – 0846 (16 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009283 – 0900 (30 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009279 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009269 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009298 (just above the 50/100 SMAs) / 0.009306 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in slightly strong with 4k offset. This caused a slow developing short spike of 10 ticks that started on the 200 SMA and fell to just above the R1 Pivot. Since it took a while and peaked right at the same time of the decision to cancel you may or may not have had your inner long entry fill. It would have filled with 1 tick to spare, then reversed 8 ticks into the :32 bar to the 13/ 200 SMAs. Look to exit at 0.009285 where it hovered for about 6 ticks. After that it stepped lower for a 2nd peak then final peak as it crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed to the 50 SMA after 30 min.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.16.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/16/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 286K
Actual: 264K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009464 – shift to 0.009461
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009447 – 0830:14 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009464 – 0833:32 (4 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009451 – 0837 (7 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009472 – 0849 (19 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009452 (just below the 20 SMA) / 0.009442 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009470 (No SMA /Pivot near) / 0.009481 (just below the HOD)

Notes: Report came in quite strong with 22k offset. This caused a quick short spike of 14 ticks that started below the 200/100 SMAs and fell to match the low from 20 min earlier. This would have filled your inner long entry, then allowed at least 10 ticks to be captured as it reversed to the 100 SMA after 3 min. After that it pulled back 13 ticks, then reversed 21 ticks in the next 12 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.23.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/23/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 269K
Actual: 283K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.009288
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009282 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009286 – 0831:24 (2 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009280 (just below the S3 Pivot) / 0.009269 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009297 (in between the 100/50 SMAs) / 0.009307 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately weak with 14k offset. This caused a slow short spike of only 6 ticks that started on the falling 13 SMA and fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the slow movement and small reaction. After peaking near the end of the bar, it reversed only 4 ticks in the next 27 sec, then traded sideways around the S3 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 285K
Actual: 278K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008727
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008728 – 0.008724 – 0831 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008718 (in between the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008707 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008735 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008747 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly strong with 7k offset. This caused a muted response with the :31 bar only moving within a 4 tick range overall. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the dull movement and small reaction. It continued to have no impulse until 4 min after the report when the ECB press conference commentary drove the market short.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 290K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008662
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008654 – 0829:54 (0 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008674 – 0832:34 (3 min)
)))20 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008654 – 0844 (14 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008653 (just below the OOD / 100_200 SMAs) / 0.008643 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008670 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008681 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly weak with 8k offset. This caused a premature short spike of 8 ticks that was probably just inside of the inner long entry. It fell to the OOD and 100/200 SMAs then retreated quickly, not allowing a manual shift entry. Since the news caused a long reaction, this was perfect causing a 20 tick reversal in 2.5 min. It had little movement in the first half of the :31 bar so cancel the order. Then it pulled back 20 ticks in 11 min back to the OOD.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 286K
Actual: 291K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008460
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008448 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008458 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008446 – 0837 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008487 – 0850 (20 min)
41 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008451 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008440 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008470 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008478 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly weak with 5k offset while the concurrent CPI report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused an initial short spike of 12 ticks that eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot in 2 sec. It traded sideways around the S2 Mid Pivot for the entire bar before reversing. This would have filled your inner long entry with 3 ticks to spare. Since the reversal can take a few min to develop, be patient as it retreated 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the 13 SMA allowing about 6 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 12 ticks for a double bottom in 4 min. Then it reversed strongly for 41 ticks in the next 13 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and HOD.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

Durable Goods, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 292014

11/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.9%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to -1.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.008489 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008502 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008490 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008500 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008494 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008505 – 0841 (11 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008493 – 0854 (24 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008480 (on the LOD) / 0.008470 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008499 (match the high @0740) / 0.008509 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Mixed report caused an initial long spike followed by a quick reversal. The Core reading fell short of the forecast by 1.4% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by 0.8% with small upward previous revisions. Unemployment claims also released with a 26K disappointment. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the high from 0740 for 13 ticks with no other barrier near then fell 12 ticks 5 sec later. This would have filled your inner short entry immediately with 3 ticks to spare, then fallen to hover near the origin allowing 9 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in the next 16 sec then reversed 6 ticks on the :33 bar to the 50/100 SMAs. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to reach the HOD in 8 min before reversing 12 ticks to the 200 SMA in 13 min.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/4/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 296K
Actual: 297K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008338
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008343 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008340 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008329 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.008320 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008347 (just above the OOD) / 0.008358 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 1k offset with no other news. This caused a dull reaction as we should expect that rose 5 ticks in 25 sec just below the S1 Mid Pivot then reversed only 3 ticks in the next 9 sec. This would have been well short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. The erratic movement after 0837 is due to the ECB press conference.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 012015

Caption for 12/11:

12/11/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 294K
Core Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008443
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008430 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008440 – 0831:54 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008385 – 0952 (82 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 0.008397 – 1000 (90 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008431 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008424 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008454 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008462 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: All the news came in strong to cause a short reaction of 13 ticks in 1 sec to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then taken nearly 2 min to reverse for 10 ticks allowing about 8 ticks to be captured where it hovered. After that, the gravity of the report continued to pull the market lower for another 45 ticks in the next 80 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA. After that it continued to trade near the S2 Mid Pivot.

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