Unemployment Weekly | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 022015

ZB 03-15 (Second) 12_11_2014

12/11/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.5%
Unemployment claims
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 144’08 (shift to 144’06)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 143’29 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’06 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 144’02 – 0831:15 (2 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’08 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 143’18 – 0937 (67 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 143’26 – 0958 (88 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 144’01 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 143’30 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 144’11 (just above the 100 SMA) / 144’14 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims with all results coming in stronger that the forecast. This caused a short move of 9 ticks initially that crossed the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot then retreated. This would have filled both long entries with 1 tick to spare for an average long position at 143’31.5. It reversed for 9 ticks quickly and hovered at 144’05 for 5 sec to allow an exit with 11 total ticks. After a pullback of 4 ticks, it reversed 6 ticks to provide a hovering exit at 144’06 for 13 total ticks. After that it fell for a final peak of 11 more ticks in the next hour after crossing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 21 min back to the 50 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.8.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/8/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 291K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008361
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008357 – 0.008360 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008353 (just below the 50 SMA) / 0.008341 (on the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008370 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008379 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 3k offset. This caused a muted response with the :31 bar only moving within a 3 tick range overall. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the dull movement and small reaction. It continued to have no impulse until 3 min after the report when something else probably caused it rally over 30 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.15.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/15/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 316K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008584
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008574 – 0830:17 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008580 – 0830:30 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008567 – 0831:34 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008533 – 0918 (48 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 0.008571 – 0930 (30 min)
38 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008575 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008565 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008594 (on the R1 Pivot) / 0.008603 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 17k offset with a modestly positive PPI report. This caused a short move of 10 ticks in 17 sec that crossed the 100/200 SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot then reversed. This would have filled your inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then allowed 4 ticks to be captured where it hovered for 7 sec on the 200 SMA. Then it fell another 7 ticks in the next minute and continued to fall another 34 ticks in the next 46 min to the OOD. After that it reversed 38 ticks in 12 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.22.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/22/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 301K
Actual: 307K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008494 (shift to 0.008497)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008520 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008500 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008488 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008477 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008507 (on the 100 SMA) / 0.008517 (just below the HOD)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 6k offset. This caused a perfect setup for the Trap Trade with a long move of 23 ticks in 7 sec that quickly collapsed after 8 more sec. This would have filled your inner and outer short entries with 3 ticks to spare, then allowed 20 total ticks to be captured where it hovered for over 1 min on the 200 SMA. It continued to trade in a narrow range just below the 200 SMA until the ECB Press conference caused chaos at 0841.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.29.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 022015

1/29/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 301K
Actual: 265K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.008484 (shift to 0.008497)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008474 – 0830:38 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008478 – 0830:50 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008467 – 0838 (8 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.008490 – 0903 (33 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008475 (just below the 100 SMA) / 0.008465 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008492 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008502 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in much better than expected with 36k offset. This caused an initial short spike of only 6 ticks then trickled lower. As it was slowly approaching the inner long entry around the 20 sec threshold, cancel the order. With the large offset and slow approach, a strong reversal is unlikely while a 2nd peak is probable. Sure enough, it achieved 10 ticks to the 100 SMA, then reversed only 4 ticks briefly before falling for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 7 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.5.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 032015

2/5/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 287K
Actual: 278K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008513
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008508 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008516 – 0831:36 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008523 – 0852 (22 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008502 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008495 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008524 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008531 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 9k offset while the concurrently booked trade balance came in 8.4B worse than expected. This caused an initial short spike of only 5 ticks followed by a reversal of 8 ticks after 96 sec. This would have fallen short of the inner long tier by 6 ticks and was fleeting, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it climbed another 7 ticks in 20 min to eclipse the 200 SMA.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/12/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.4%
Core Actual: -0.9%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
Unemployment claims
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 304K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 146’01
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’10 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’07 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Pullback to 146’12 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 146’07 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 147’06 – 0959 (89 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 146’24 – 1034 (124 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 145’28 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 145’25 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 146’06 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 146’09 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims with all results coming in much weaker than the forecast. This caused a long move of 9 ticks initially in 5 sec. This would have filled both short entries with 1 tick to spare for an average long position at 146’07.5. It reversed for only 3 ticks to allow an exit at 146’07 or 146’08 with 1 tick loss or profit. Look to exit quickly after a small retreat since it is likely to continue to step higher on such biased news. It ran into resistance on the S1 Pivot before climbing for a final peak of 26 more ticks in the next 86 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 35 min to the 100 SMA / PP Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/12/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 304K
Core Rtl Sales
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
Rtl Sales
Forecast: -0.4%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008355
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008383 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008371 – 0830:55 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008379 – 0831:22 (2 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008368 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008390 – 0842 (12 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.008368 – 0859 (29 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008408 – 0946 (76 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 0.008386 – 1017 (107 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008344 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.008335 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008366 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008375 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: All the news came in very weak to cause a long reaction of 22 ticks in 3 sec and another 6 ticks in the following 22 sec to eclipse the R2 Pivot. This would have filled both of your short entries with 8 ticks to spare and just within the stop. This would have put you short with an average position of 0.008370.5. The initial reversal would fallen to allow an exit with 1 tick loss. If you waited until after the pullback and ensuing reversal, you could have secured 3-5 ticks of profit as it hovered between 0.008368 and 68 for 10 sec. After that it rallied for a 2nd peak for 7 more ticks in 9 min before reversing 22 ticks in 17 min to the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a slow developing final peak for 18 more ticks in 47 min as it eclipsed the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 31 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 172015

2/19/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 293K
Actual: 283K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008401
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008400 – 0.008403 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
1st peak @ 0.008395 – 0834 (4 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008400 – 0837 (7 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008392 – 0846 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008401 – 0906 (36 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008391 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.008382 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008410 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008421 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 10k offset. This caused minimal movement with only 3 ticks span on the :31 bar making it an easy decision to cancel the order. After that, it fell in a tame delayed move for 6 ticks in 3 min for the 1st peak to extend the LOD followed by a 5 tick reversal to the 13 SMA in 3 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 9 min before reversing 9 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

Durable Goods, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 202015

2/26/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 288K
Actual: 313K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008415
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008423 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008400 – 0832:04 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008409 – 0837 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008388 – 0902 (32 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008403 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.008397 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008425 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008433 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 25k offset. Durable Goods were offsetting as was CPI. This caused a delayed move that climbed 8 ticks at the end of the :31 bar to cross the 200 SMA and hit the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks in a little over a minute as it crossed the S1 Pivot. The move would have been too slow and small to breach the tier, so cancel the order. After that, it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing for 21 ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot.

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