US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.30.13

Advance GDP Comments Off

Apr 272013

1/30/2013 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 1.1%
Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +1.1% to 3.1%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.83
1st Peak@ 97.46 – 0831 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 97.74 – 0836 (6 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast causing a short spike of 37 ticks on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs or Pivots as it was already trending lower. It bottomed out at 97.46 on the 100 SMA on the 15 min chart. Normally an offset of over 1% on the GDP would provide a much larger reaction, but with a dismal forecast of only 1.1%, expectations were pessimistic to begin with. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 97.74 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 20 ticks toward the end of the bar. If you look at the DX index for this time period, it did not move much, surprisingly. The reversal came quickly in the next 5 min for 28 ticks up to the 13 SMA. After that it fell for a double bottom, then chopped sideways in a 25 tick range.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.3.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 272013

4/3/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.9
Actual: 54.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.68

1st Peak @ 96.39 – 1006 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 96.55 – 1027 (78 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.08 – 1038 (38 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 96.46 – 1055 (55 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 1.5 points. This caused a slow developing short spike of 29 ticks that culminated on the :06 bar. It used the 100 and 200 SMAs as resistance for the launch. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 96.64 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 6-20 ticks on the :02-:06 bars depending upon your patience. After the initial peak it chopped sideways and eventually reversed to nick the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a dramatic 2nd peak of 60 ticks after a brief struggle with the S1 Pivot. Then the reversal reclaimed 38 ticks, crossing the S1 Pivot and eclipsing the 50 SMA. After that the selloff continued to 94.18 until the pit close at 1430, about 3.5 hrs later, but not due to this report.

CL 04 13 (1 Min) 3.5.2013

3/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.49

1st Peak @ 90.60 – 1002 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 90.19 – 1118 (78 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by a point. This caused a small long spike of 12 ticks that was unsustainable and could not reach the short term high attained a few min before the report. It used the 100 SMA as support for the launch, then the 20 SMA was enough resistance to rein it in. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 90.53 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 3-6 ticks on the :02 bar at or above the 20 SMA. After that it chopped sideways stuck in the fist of SMAs and attempted a 2nd peak, only able to achieve 1 more tick. Then the reversal fell 41 ticks to cross the all 3 SMAs and find support at the OOD.

CL 4 13 (1Min) 3.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 272013

Caption for 3/5:
3/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.0
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 90.49
1st Peak @ 90.60 – 1002 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 90.19 – 1118 (78 min)
41 ticks

CL 3 13 (1 Min) 2.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 272013

Caption for 2/5:
2/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 55.2
Actual: 55.2
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.94
1st Peak @ 96.67 – 1003 (3 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 97.07 – 1010 (10 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Matching report that still delivered a bounce to the market. This caused a short spike of 27 ticks that had to fight through all 3 of the SMAs delaying the majority of the spike to the :03 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 96.88 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover within 2-3 ticks of your fill point on the :01 and :02 bars. This was cause for me to play it safe and exit at break even after I noticed the matching results along with the SMAs to restrict the drop. The :03 candle drop was a surprise and probably due to the overbought sentiment and trading near the HOD. Naturally, it could not sustain the drop and rebounded quickly on the following 2 bars, eventually reversing for 40 total ticks 10 min after the report to hit the HOD.

CL 04 13 (1 Min) 3.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 272013

Caption for 3/1:
3/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 52.7
Actual:54.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.62
1st Peak @ 90.87 – 1001 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 90.58 – 1005 (5 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 91.10 – 1108 (68 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 90.29 – 1146 (106 min)
81 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a healthy margin and rose above 54 for the strongest reading in 8 months. This caused a 25 tick spike on the :01 bar that crossed the 50 SMA near the origin, and the 100/200 SMAs near the top of the bar. Eclipsing the SMAs caused it to retreat sharply in the next 54 min to just below the origin. Then after a failed second attempt, it was able to breakout long on the third try for 48 ticks on a slow developing 2nd peak. Then it reversed for 81 ticks in about 30 min to extend the LOD by 15 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 2 ticks of slippage at 90.71. Note the location of the 100 and 200 SMA, then place your exit just above the 200 SMA at about 90.84 for 13 ticks. With the bullish news, and the double bottom that the CL had established prior to the report at 90.55, buying the dips below the 50 SMA would be a smart play.

CL 05 13 (1 Min) 4.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 272013

Caption for 4/1:
4/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.2
Actual: 51.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.22
1st Peak @ 96.00 – 1003 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 96.17 – 1004 (4 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.92 – 1011 (11 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 96.33 – 1029 (29 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast by a healthy margin. This caused a 22 tick short spike on the :01 bar that hit the S2 Pivot as it bottomed, and used the 50 SMA as support as it was correcting before the report. It rebounded off of the S2 Pivot for 17 ticks almost to the 13 SMA, then fell for a relatively small 2nd peak of only 8 more ticks as it extended the LOD. Normally such a disappointing report would have elicited about a 60 tick short move in total, but the market was trading over 120 ticks lower than the open, so the oversold sentiment was restraining the bears. Then it reversed for 41 ticks in about 18 min to eclipse the 100 SMA.. With JOBB, you would have filled short with no slippage at 96.17. You could exit around 96.05 on the :01 bar with about 12 ticks. Knowing the reaction takes several minutes to pan out, look for it to interact with the S2 Pivot and eventually conquer it. When it failed to do that, noticing the MACD and 13/20 SMA crossings, exit at the 96.11 area at worst.

CL 03 13 (1 Min) 2.1.2013

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 272013

Caption for 2/1:
2/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 50.8
Actual:53.1
Previous revision: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 96.83
1st Peak @ 96.99 – 1001 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 96.80 – 1002 (2 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 98.15 – 1150 (110 min)
135 ticks

Reversal to 97.31 – 1253 (173 min)
84 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast and rose above 53 for the strongest reading in 7 months. This caused a muted and unsustained initial reaction of only 16 ticks, running into resistance at the 100 SMA and S1 Pivot. Then it continued a slow but steady fan of 135 total ticks in a little less than 2 hrs that labored through the 200 SMA and PP-R1 Pivots, eventually peaking on the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 1 ticks of slippage at 96.90. Noting the bullish news and average corresponding reaction, be patient and wait for at least 20 ticks at the level of the 200 SMA. If you rode the wave until the 13 or 20 was crossed, you would have secured at least 70 ticks in about 20 min. I managed 17 ticks, placing my exit at 97.07 conservatively. The market was also oversold in the short term, trading just above the LOD before the report. This enhanced the buyhing pressure. The reversal was able to reclaim 84 ticks in about an hour, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the PP Pivot.

ZC 05 13 (1 Min) 4.10.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Apr 272013

Caption for 4/10:

4/10/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 645.50 (11:59:25)
1st Peak @ 666.75 – 1201 (1 min)
85 ticks

Reversal to 634.25 – 1213 (13 min)
130 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long spike of 85 ticks over 1 bar, that started above all 3 major SMAs (using the 200 SMA as support) and crossed the R1 – R3 Pivots. With JOBB, you would have filled short initially, as the noise before the breakout was too volatile for the settings. Then you would have been stopped with 1 tick of slippage for a 13 tick loss at about 647.50. Retooling the settings for a 12 tick bracket and 15 tick stop loss would have made the entry safe and able to handle the preliminary noise while allowing for an early spike. The spike peaked out about 15 sec into the :01 bar, and remained above 660 until about 25 sec remaining. Then it slowly backed off for the reversal reclaiming 60 ticks on the :01 bar, and another 29 ticks on the :02 and :03 bars. The total haul on the reversal was 130 ticks, culminating on the :13 bar almost to the S3 Pivot. After the reversal, it popped back up to trade between 641 and 645 for a few hours.

ZC 05 13 (1 Min) 3.8.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Apr 272013

Caption for 3/8:

3/8/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 692.25
1st Peak @ 705.00 – 1201 (1 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 690.25 – 1204 (4 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long spike of 51 ticks over 1 bar, that crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the R1 / R2 Pivots. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 695 with no slippage, then seen it hover for a several seconds before making its determined late rise to 705. I played it conservatively only looking for a handful of ticks due to the slow development, but it would have been safe to wait until the end of the bar and garner 30+ ticks. After the spike, it reversed to come back below the origin and extend the LOD by 4 ticks. Then it recovered back up the R2 Pivot and traded between the R1 and R2 Pivots.

ZC 03-13 (1 Min) 2.8.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Apr 272013

2/8/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 718.25
1st Peak @ 711.00 – 1204 (4 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 719.00 – 1208 (8 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 709.00 – 1240 (40 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 717.00 – 1326 (86 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short spike of 29 ticks over 4 bars, that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R1 / PP Pivots. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 716 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit in the area of the PP Pivot and 200 SMA for about 10 ticks. After the spike, it reversed to come back to the origin, then dove for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks about 35 min later, 1 tick above the LOD. Then it reversed back to the R1 Pivot 45 min after that.

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