US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.17.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 052013

4/17/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2M
Actual: -1.2M
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 87.88
1st Peak @ 87.61 – 1031 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 87.96 – 1031 (1 min)
35 ticks

Final Peak @ 86.06 – 1230 (120 min)
182 ticks

Reversal to 86.89 – 1325 (175 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in crude inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a minimal draw and distillates saw a healthy gain. This prompted a bearish short move overall that was spoiled by a quick reversal on the :31 bar. The distillate gain won over in the long run, but the draw on oil caused the initial indecision. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 87.77 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped a few sec later as it popped up at 87.96 with 4 ticks of slippage. After the initial indecision, it struggled briefly to conquer the support of the 200 SMA, then fell for several lows, eventually bottoming at 86.06 for 182 ticks 2 hrs later. The reversal reclaimed 52 ticks in about 1 hr, nearly reaching the 200 SMA.

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 4.11.2013

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 052013

4/11/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.25/2.4
Actual: 3.00/2.5
INDECISIVE
Started @ 146’09 (1301)
1st Peak @ 146’12 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 146’01 – 1302 (1 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell sizably compared to last month. This caused an unfortunate and shocking indecisive reaction on one of our safest reports to date. It spiked long for 3 ticks, then immediately reversed for 11 ticks, then pulled back to breakeven. With JOBB you would have filled long at 146’12 with no slippage, then stopped with 3 ticks of slippage for an 8 tick loss. The spike started just above all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot in a tight fist. The long move came within 1 tick of the HOD, then the short move crossed all levels of support and bottomed at any area of support that held twice in the past 4 hours. After the initial indecision, it traded sideways for about 30 min, then fell for 2 more ticks beyond the :01 bar bottom and reversed up to the origin.

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 3.14.2013

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 052013

3/14/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.18/2.7
Actual: 3.25/2.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 141’13 (1301)
1st Peak @ 141’01 – 1303 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 141’21 – 1359 (58 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly after February, 2 months after the FED started to buy $85B in long term bonds each month. This caused a drop of 12 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled short at 141’06 with an abnormally high 4 ticks of slippage. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot, so it had to contend with a lot of support. Noting the average yield is 13 ticks and the location of the S1 Pivot, I placed my target at 141’01 and was filled with 5 ticks. After 10 min of trading between 141’01 and the 200 SMA, it reversed strongly back to the origin in 5 min, then slowly climbed another 9 ticks, extending the HOD by 4 ticks in another 45 min.

ZB 03-13 (1 Min) 2.14.2013

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 052013

2/14/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.07/2.8
Actual: 3.18/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 143’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 143’11 – 1303 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 143’03 – 1307 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 143’21 – 1329 (28 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 143’09 – 1411 (70 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose more than expected from the previous auction, 1 month after the FED started to buy $45B in long term bonds each month. This caused a small rally of 7 ticks. With JOBB you would fill long at 143’07 with no slippage. The spike could not go much higher than the R2 Pivot given that it was extending the HOD, so it quickly hit 7 ticks then pulled back 4 ticks on the same bar. I had my exit at 143’12, looking for 5 ticks. When it did not initially fill, I moved it down to 143’10 and it filled later on the 2nd peak rise. After peaking, it reversed back to the origin, then garnered a 2nd peak of 17 ticks nearly 30 min later. The final reversal fell back to the R2 Pivot and 100 SMA for 12 ticks about 40 min after the 2nd peak.

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 4.10.2013

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 052013

4/10/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.03/3.2
Actual: 1.80/2.8
DULL REACTION
Started @ 146’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 146’04 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 146’13 – 1323 (22 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell sizably from the previous auction. This caused the ZB to spike short for only 4 ticks in a dull reaction. With JOBB you would fill short at 146’05 with no slippage. All the SMAs were in a tight fist near the origin and the LOD was just a few ticks lower. You would have seen it bob between breakeven and 1 tick in the green for about 1 min, before it slowly reversed. Recognizing it as dull, move the stop loss in and try to exit between breakeven and 3 ticks loss. The reversal was fairly quick for 6 ticks, then took another 18 min for the last 3 ticks.

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 3.13.2013

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 052013

3/13/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.05/2.7
Actual: 2.03/3.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 141’14 – 1302 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 141’20 – 1324 (23 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 141’14 – 1346 (45 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell marginally from the previous auction but still remained at a high level 2 months after the FED commenced buying bonds. This caused the ZB to spike long for 9 ticks. With JOBB you would fill long at 141’08 with no slippage. It crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin, then peaked just below the PP Pivot. Look to exit at 141’12 or 13 for 4-5 ticks. After the spike, it retreated a bit, then geared up for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks at the OOD in about 20 min. The final reversal reclaimed 6 ticks in another 20 min, above the 50 SMA.

ZB 03-13 (1 Min) 2.13.13

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 052013

2/13/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.86/2.8
Actual: 2.05/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 142’24 (1301)
1st Peak @ 142’16 – 1303 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 142’25 – 1312 (11 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 142’11 – 1404 (63 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 142’23 – 1455 (114 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose strongly from the previous auction 1 month after the FED commenced buying bonds. This caused the ZB to spike short for 8 ticks. With JOBB you would fill short at 142’21 with no slippage. It only crossed the 200 SMA near the origin, but bottomed at the S3 Pivot, a strong support barrier. I noticed the S3 Pivot and elected to get out with 4 ticks at 142’17, as I thought it would struggle to go much lower. After the spike, it reversed back to the origin, then fell again for a slow developing 2nd peak of 5 more ticks (2 ticks above the LOD) in about 50 min. The final reversal reclaimed 12 ticks in about an hour, just above the 200 SMA.

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 4.05.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 022013

4/5/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 198K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 88K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.7%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 146’24

1st Peak @ 147’24 – 0831 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 147’16 – 0832 (2 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’00 – 0834 (4 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 147’15 – 0847 (17 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 148’02 – 0911 (41 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 147’19 – 0923 (53 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Very negative report overall showing 110K less jobs created than expected, and a 0.1% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate due to shrinkage of the labor force. This caused the bonds to rally for 32 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing the 50 SMA and the R2 Pivot near the origin, then peaking at the R3 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 146’30 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture about 20-24 ticks on the :31 bar, or up to 30 ticks on the :33 or :34 bars. Due to the R3 Pivot and the strong resistance normally accompanying, I elected to exit on the R3 Pivot for 24 ticks. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed minimally for 8 ticks on the :32 bar, then rose again for a quick 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 3 min. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in about 13 min to the area where the 13 and 20 intersected, before popping back up for a slightly higher final peak of 2 more ticks in 25 min. Then the final reversal eclipsed the 50 SMA and R3 Pivot for 15 ticks in 12 min. After that it continued to trade between the R3 Pivot and the HOD. Another amazing trade on the ZB!

ZB 06-13 (1 Min) 3.08.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 022013

3/8/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 162K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 236K
Previous Revision: +41K to 196K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’26

1st Peak @ 140’18 – 0831 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 141’01 – 0833 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 140’14 – 0837 (7 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 141’11 – 1013 (103 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Very positive report overall showing 74K more jobs created than expected, and a 0.2% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate, in spite of a strong downward revision to the previous report. This caused the bonds to fall for 40 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot near the origin, the S2 Pivot and peaking just above the S3 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 141’19 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 30 ticks as it bottomed at 140’18 several times. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed back up for 15 ticks on the :33 bar, then fell again for a quick 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 7 min to nick the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 29 ticks in about 90 min to the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. Another amazing trade on the ZB!

ZB 03-13 (1 Min) 2.01.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 022013

2/1/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 161K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 157K
Previous Revision: +41K to 196K
Rate Forecast: 7.8%
Rate Actual: 7.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 143’01

1st Peak @ 143’25 – 0831 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 143’08 – 0839 (9 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 144’13 – 0935 (65 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 143’18 – 1010 (100 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Mixed report overall showing a matching reading on the job creation, a disappointing unemployment U-3 rate, and an strong upward revision to the previous report. This caused the bonds to rally for 24 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot near the origin and peaking just below the R1 Pivot. The long reactions are due to the job #s, while the short reactions are due to the uptick in the rate. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 143’05 with no slippage. Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 19 ticks as it peaked twice at 143’25. Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move. After the peak, it reversed back to the 20 SMA and the PP Pivot, then climbed for a prolonged 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in the next hour 8 ticks above the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in about 30 min to the 200 SMA.

Older Entries Newer Entries