4/17/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2M
Actual: -1.2M
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 87.88
1st Peak @ 87.61 – 1031 (1 min)
27 ticks
Reversal to 87.96 – 1031 (1 min)
35 ticks
Final Peak @ 86.06 – 1230 (120 min)
182 ticks
Reversal to 86.89 – 1325 (175 min)
52 ticks
Notes: Moderate draw in crude inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a minimal draw and distillates saw a healthy gain. This prompted a bearish short move overall that was spoiled by a quick reversal on the :31 bar. The distillate gain won over in the long run, but the draw on oil caused the initial indecision. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 87.77 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped a few sec later as it popped up at 87.96 with 4 ticks of slippage. After the initial indecision, it struggled briefly to conquer the support of the 200 SMA, then fell for several lows, eventually bottoming at 86.06 for 182 ticks 2 hrs later. The reversal reclaimed 52 ticks in about 1 hr, nearly reaching the 200 SMA.