May 052013

ZB 06-13 (1 Min)  4_11_2013

4/11/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous:  3.25/2.4
Actual: 3.00/2.5
Started @ 146’09 (1301)
1st Peak @ 146’12 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 146’01 – 1302 (1 min)
11 ticks

Notes:  Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late.  The highest yield fell sizably compared to last month.  This caused an unfortunate and shocking indecisive reaction on one of our safest reports to date.  It spiked long for 3 ticks, then immediately reversed for 11 ticks, then pulled back to breakeven.  With JOBB you would have filled long at 146’12 with no slippage, then stopped with 3 ticks of slippage for an 8 tick loss.  The spike started just above all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot in a tight fist.  The long move came within 1 tick of the HOD, then the short move crossed all levels of support and bottomed at any area of support that held twice in the past 4 hours.  After the initial indecision, it traded sideways for about 30 min, then fell for 2 more ticks beyond the :01 bar bottom and reversed up to the origin.