US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 13 (1Min) 2.6.13

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 202013

2/6/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.7M
Actual: 2.6M
DULL REACTION
Started @ 95.66
1st Bar Hi/Lo @ 95.73 / 95.59 – 1031 (1 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Matching gain in crude inventories, while gasoline saw a moderate rise and distillates saw a small drop. This caused a dull reaction with all results near the expectation and the market trading on the S3 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have filled in 15 sec, so cancel the order. As the market was engaged in a bullish correction prior to the report, it continued its slow and deliberate long run 2 min after the report. This is the first dull reaction inventory report since we have been monitoring this report in 18 months.

CL 03 13 (1 Min) 1.24.13

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 202013

1/24/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 1.9M
Actual: 2.8M
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 96.14
1st Peak @ 95.94 – 1101 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 96.45 – 1107 (7 min)
51 ticks

Extended Reversal to 96.68 – 1136 (36 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in crude inventories, while gasoline saw a moderate drop and distillates saw a negligible gain. This prompted a small short move of 20 ticks that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs then bottomed at the 200 SMA on the :02 bar, moving on the crude #s first. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have filled initially. Close out the order after the initial reaction in a few seconds does not fill you. It is likely dull or conflicted. Thus we saw a relatively small short move initially. Then it reversed decisively and eclipsed the R1 Pivot and the HOD for 51 ticks 5 min later on the gasoline results. It continued to test the R1 Pivot and eventually broke through for another 23 ticks up to 96.68. After that it fell strongly in the next hour.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.26.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

3/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -0.5%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 2.3%
Regular Forecast: 3.9%
Regular Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -4.9%
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 95.59
1st Peak @ 95.52 – 0831 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.41 – 0838 (8 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 95.88 – 0918 (48 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing though not as much as last month causing a dull reaction. As long as you canceled the order within 38 sec, you would not have filled. Remember the rules state to cancel the order after 15 sec with no fill. The core reading was moderately negative while the regular reading was strongly positive and the previous revisions were mildly positive. This caused a dull 7 tick short move that achieved 11 more ticks after 8 min, eclipsing the 100 SMA. Then it reversed for a methodical rebound of 47 ticks in the next 40 min, riding the 13 and 20 SMAs. Since the forecasts were both positive, this was a safer proposition than last month. Even if you had filled short at 95.54, it would have stayed between 3 ticks in the red and 2 in the green for the next few bars, so it would not have been a significant loss.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.27.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

2/27/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:1.9%
Previous revision:-0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: -4.8%
Regular Actual:-5.2%
Previous Revision:-0.3% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 92.49
1st Peak @ 92.67 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 92.38 – 0831 (106 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing indecision. The core reading was strongly positive while the regular reading was strongly negative and the previous revisions were moderately negative. This caused a quick and unsustainable spike for 18 ticks, followed by a reversal of 29 ticks. With the strongly divergent forecasts, this should have been warning enough to disqualify the report and was a lesson learned. With JOBB, this would have caused a long fill at about 92.57 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hit 92.67 and sharply retreat 20 ticks in 4 sec. If you closed out there, you would have taken a 10 ticks loss, otherwise your stop loss would have caught at 25 sec. The reaction went long to cross the 13 and 20 of a down trending market, then fell to extend the LOD by 4 ticks. It the next several minutes, it oscillated lower, extending the LOD each drop, while using the falling 50 SMA as resistance.

CL 03 13 (1 Min) 1.28.13

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 202013

1/28/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual:1.3%
Previous revision:-0.4% to1.2% Core
Regular Forecast: 1.8%
Regular Actual:4.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.12
1st Peak @ 96.25 – 0833 (3 min)
13 ticks

Final Peak @ 96.81 – 0901 (31 min)
69 ticks

Reverse to 95.47 – 1016 (106 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Report came in very positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were overall slightly negative. The spike crossed the 50 SMA, but it was not a resistance barrier since the market had been trading above it until a few min before the report release. The report was delayed about 90 sec, so the spike did not occur until late on the :32 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 96.18 with 1 tick of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with up to 6 ticks on the first few bars, or 20+ if you were patient and waited about 7 min. After the 1st peak, it struggled to climb above 96.25 with a short term barrier there, then eventually stepped higher for another 25 min to 96.81 and 69 total ticks right at the pit open. The final reversal was reacting to the overbought condition of the market and the report, selling off for 134 ticks in 75 min, nearly reaching the S1 Pivot.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.26.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 202013

3/26/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 67.9
Actual: 59.7
Previous revision: -1.6 to 68.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.77
1st Peak @ 95.57 – 1004 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 95.71 – 1008 (8 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.31 – 1023 (23 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 95.64 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report strongly disappointed falling well short of the forecast and caused a short reaction of 20 ticks culminating on the :03 bar. It probably would have achieved a bigger spike if not for all the support barriers crossed. It struggled with the 50 SMA on the :01 bar, then the R1 Pivot and the 100 SMA on the next 2 bars. With JOBB you would have filled short at 95.69 with 3 ticks of slippage. I moved my stop to break even and 1 tick above the 50 SMA after it was struggling to go lower and got nicked for no gain on the wick of the :02 bar. Then the next bar would have given another 7 tick drop allowing 10 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 14 ticks in 4 min, before dropping for a big 2nd peak of 46 total ticks in the next 15 min. After that, the final reversal reclaimed 33 ticks in a brief 9 min to eclipse the 100 SMa and the R1 Pivot.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 2.26.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 202013

2/26/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 60.8
Actual: 69.6
Previous revision: -0.2 to 58.4
SPIKE/REVERSE SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 93.11
1st Peak @ 93.44 – 1003 (3 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 92.52 – 1036 (36 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and caused a long reaction of 33 ticks culminating on the :03 bar that crossed the PP Pivot and extended the HOD by 23 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at 93.17 with 1 tick of slippage. Watch how it interacts with the PP Pivot and consider the strong report when evaluating the exit. with the :02 bar breaking easily, stay in and look to close out around 93.37 or so for about 20 ticks. This report broke at the same time as the FED testimony, but being statistical, the impact was felt more immediately. The reversal was mostly caused by the dollar rallying on the FED testimony aided by the reversal on this report. This resulted in a 92 tick drop in about 30 min down to the S1 Pivot.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.29.13

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 202013

1/29/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 64.8
Actual: 58.6
Previous revision: +1.6 to 66.7
SPIKE/REVERSE SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.15
1st Peak @ 96.99 – 1001 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 97.17 – 1003 (3 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a decent margin and caused a short reaction of 16 ticks on the :01 bar that crossed the 50 SMA and bottomed on the R1 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 97.10 with no slippage. Look to close out at the R1 Pivot for about 9-10 ticks. A negative report of this magnitude should have caused a larger bearish reaction, but the R1 Pivot reined it in. This was also demonstrated by a quick reversal on the next bar that returned to the origin. After that it came back down to the level of the 1st peak, then traded sideways between the R1 Pivot and the 50 SMA.

CL 02 13 (1 Min) 01.17.13

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jan 172013

1/17/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 7.1
Actual: -5.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 95.40
1st Peak @ 95.30 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 95.71 – 1016 (16 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast with a delta of nearly 13, but this caused a much smaller than expected short spike of only 10 ticks. The market had been rallying over the last few hours, but was not ready to sell yet. The spike hit the 50 SMA, and could go no lower. With JOBB, your order would have filled at 95.32 with 1 tick of slippage. Since it never fell below the 50 SMA, look to get out at break even. The reversal achieved 41 ticks in 15 min to extend the HOD another 20 ticks.

NG 02 13 (1 Min) 01.17.13

NG Storage Comments Off

Jan 172013

1/17/2013 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -131B
Actual: -148B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.434
1st Peak @ 3.500 – 1032 (2 min)
66 ticks
2nd Peak @ 3.520 – 1038 (8 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 3.461 – 1158 (88 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 66 ticks that crossed no SMAs but the R1 Pivot as it was trending higher before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.464. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with at least 30 ticks as it finished the bar near 3.500. After achieving the 1st peak, it retreated slightly, then achieved a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in 7 min to eclipse the R2 Pivot by 9 ticks. The reversal was slow developing, garnering 33 ticks in 3 min, then 26 more ticks in the next 80 min. After that it slowly rallied again.

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