US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.26.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 262012

9/26/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7M
Actual: -2.4M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.74
1st Peak @ 90.24 – 0431 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 89.12 – 0437 (7 min)
112 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a healthy long spike for 50 ticks in 1 min. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot, but was repelled by the 200 SMA, leaving 20 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 89.85 with 11 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 25-30 ticks as it hovered around 90.15 for several seconds. As the market was already in a downtrend, the spike and follow on bars could not penetrate the 100 or 200 SMAs, then the reversal took hold for over 100 ticks, mostly on the :37 bar. After the reversal, it chopped sideways for another 20 min, then slowly rose to correct the steep dro

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.25.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 252012

9/25/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 63.1
Actual: 70.3
Previous revision: +0.7 to 61.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.53
1st Peak @ 92.97 – 0401 (1 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.08 – 0412 (12 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 92.64 – 0440 (40 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast along with a small upward previous revision causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot on the rise with ease. At it pulled away from the peak it left 10 ticks naked on the wick and drifted another 9 ticks lower to test the 100 SMA, but was able to use it as support and achieve a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks on the :12 bar at 93.08, a level of resistance demonstrated on the bullish trend in the last 3 hrs. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 92.64 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out at about 92.90 with 26 ticks where it slowly pulled away from the peak. It would also be a safe trade to short the reversal from the 2nd peak with the clear resistance at 93.08 and the 3 SMAs about 30 ticks lower. Close out when it penetrates the 200.

NG 10 12 (1 Min) 09.20.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 202012

9/20/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 66B
Actual: 67B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 2.806
1st Peak @ 2.767 – 0431 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 2.821 – 0434 (4 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a medium and unsustainable short spike that crossed the 100 SMA at the origin, and the 200 SMA / PP Pivot about halfway down its path. There is no obvious level of support at the peak of the spike, but it hovered within 15 ticks of the bottom for over 15 sec before leaving 30 ticks on the bar tail naked and heading into the reversal. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 10 ticks of slippage at about 2.786. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 10 ticks where it hovered. The reversal quickly recovered above the 200 SMA, tried once more to penetrate, then rallied for a total of 54 ticks to the HOD on the :34 bar. Then it fell again and seesawed around the 200 SMA for the next hour.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.20.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 202012

9/20/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 374K
Actual: 382K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 92.05
1st Peak @ 91.96 – 0231 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 92.14 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by only 8K jobs. This caused a slow moving spike of 9 ticks that would have filled JOBB with no slippage, then hovered at the break even point before reversing for 18 ticks later in the bar. Close out at break even before the reversal slowly marches toward the stop loss. It may have had a 2nd peak at the 0239 point on the sharp drop, but it is inconclusive if that move was due to the claims.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.20.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Sep 202012

9/20/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -4.1
Actual: -1.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.74
1st Peak @ 92.03 – 0402 (2 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.37 – 0407 (7 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 91.86 – 0424 (24 min)
51 ticks

Notes: Report barely exceeded the forecast, and yet it drew a large spike and 2nd Peak. In contrast to last month with about the same forecast to actual offset, we got a large reaction instead of a dull one. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 91.80 with no slippage, then the safe approach would be to close out at the 200 SMA where it encountered resistance on the :01 bar. If you stayed in, the end of the :02 bar would have given you another 14 ticks after crossing all 3 SMAs. The next bar was flat before the 2nd peak yielded another 34 ticks in 4 bars. With a sharp rise of 63 ticks on a barely positive report, this would be a good opportunity to trade the reversal as it is overbought in the very short term. It initially dropped 30 ticks, then made another attempt to break through the 92.35 area. After failing, it fell for 51 ticks to eclipse the 200 and 100 SMAs.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 192012

9/19/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.2M
Actual: 8.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.79
1st Peak @ 92.21 – 0431 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 93.11 – 0441 (11 min)
90 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventory when nearly no change was expected caused a healthy short spike for 58 ticks in 1 min. This was the strongest gain and offset from the forecast in 5 months and due to a spontaneous release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the market had already sold off about $2 in the 90 min before the report. Still the drop carved out a new LOD and sustained most of the drop until the new bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 92.59 with 10 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 20 or more ticks as it hovered around 92.35 for several seconds. The market was already trading below all 3 major SMAs at the report release and testing the support of the S3 Pivot at the time of the release. The oversold condition and the strong support of the S3 Pivot prevented a much larger drop. After the spike on the :31 bar, it reversed strongly for 47 ticks on the :32 bar then another 43 ticks in the next 9 min, crossing the 50 SMA. Then it eventually stepped lower in the next several hours as the gravity sunk in.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.14.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Sep 142012

9/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 99.90
1st Peak @ 100.11 – 0232 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 99.56 – 0246 (16 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive, but barely exceeded the forecast on the core and regular readings while enduring a downward revision on the previous regular reading. Core CPI broke at the same time and was slightly negative. Since the market had just eclipsed the $100 level for the first time in 5 months, it was in a corrective downtrend. The aggregate of the news caused a brief rally against the grain for 21 ticks that hit the 50 SMA and then fell into the reversal. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 99.97 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with a handful of ticks as it bounced between the 13 and 50 SMAs. The reversal reclaimed 55 ticks in 16 min, stepping lower and using the 13 as resistance.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.13.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Sep 132012

9/13/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.67 (0631)
1st Peak @ 98.74 – 0632 (1 min)
107 ticks

Reversal to 96.84 – 0638 (7 min)
190 ticks

Notes: Report released 1 min late, but the FED finally acted, executing QE3 by unleashing an open ended mortgage backed bond buying program at $40 Billion/month. As this caused heavy volatility based on the dollar, we saw a long spike of more than 100 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. The large gain was outmatched by the successive collapse in the next 7 min of 190 ticks. It continued to swing largely up and down even after the pit closed at 0830. With nearly 200 ticks range on the swings, this is a good opportunity to buy the dips only. Since the dollar will be falling, the overriding influence on the CL will be bullish, so buy the dips – 0638, 0653 (at the PP Pivot), 0803 (on the 100 SMA). Also notice the peak on the 0828 bar is a double top with the 1st peak @ 0632.

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 09.13.12

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Sep 132012

09/13/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0531 HI time / 1131 EDT)
Previous: 2.83/2.4
Actual: 2.90/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’00 (0531)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0533 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 148’01 – 0534 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 0630 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose minimally from the previous auction, continuing the rise off of the low in July. With less demand for the bonds, the yield rose, causing the ZB to spike long from sitting on the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would fill long at 148’03. With the HOD established about 90 min earlier at 148’09, keep an eye on it as it approaches that threshold. As the :02 bar bounced off of 148’08 and the :03 bar garnered 1 more tick to touch the HOD, exit around 148’08 if possible for about 5 ticks. The resistance at 148’09 is strong as it caused the reversal nearly back to the 100 SMA. Then it oscillated between 148’01 and 148’06 for 30 min before trending higher. It hit a 2nd peak at 148’14 at the R2 Pivot right before the FED announced open ended QE3 which caused a nosedive. I did not list the final reversal due to the large move and lack of association to the auction.

ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 09.12.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Sep 122012

9/12/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 776.25 – 0229
1st Peak @ 785.00 – 0230 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 764.50 – 0231 (2 min)
82 ticks

Pullback to 784.00 – 0231 (2 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 759.25 – 0243 (13 min)
99 ticks

Pullback to 773.25 – 0255 (25 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused an indecisive and volatile reaction with large tick swings. Initially spiked long for 35 ticks, then a 82 tick reversal, and continued the quick large swings for more than 50 ticks for about 25 min after the report. The 3 major SMAs were crossed several times near the origin and the swings ranged from the S3 on the lower end to the R1 on the top. Prior to the report, the market had been trading sideways, but not in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were separated by 39 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 778.75 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it march toward your stop loss. It hovered for about 7 sec just above breakeven, so close there with 0-10 ticks before the nose dive. The S3 would have been a great buy opportunity on the :43 bar as it rebounded strongly before the SMAs had time to fan out.

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