US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 08 12 (1 Min) 06.28.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 282012

6/28/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 55B
Actual: 57B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.818
1st Peak @ 2.694 – 0431 (1 min)
124 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.659 – 0434 (4 min)
159 ticks

Reversal to 2.725 – 0446 (16 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Small offset in the supply gain from the forecast caused a surprising large short spike and 2nd peak with a minimal reversal. The gain in supply was large, but expected. All 3 SMAs were crossed near the origin, then the S1 Pivot was crossed about 2/3 of the way down the :31 bar. After a brief and small retracement, the 2nd peak claimed another 35 ticks in 4 min, and the reversal achieved 66 ticks in 16 min before chopping sideways in a range for a few hours.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.28.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 282012

6/28/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 385K
Actual: 386K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 80.46
1st Peak @ 80.38 / Reverse to 80.45 – 0231 (1 min)
-8 ticks / 7 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast. This caused a dull reaction. With JOBB, your order might have filled (with slippage and the bid spread it is on the threshold). If so, when you see no impulse and hovering with a few tick loss, close out. The 33 bar reversed strongly from some other impulse, but that is why you do not want to wait for a profit and should be out of the trade by then.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.27.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 272012

6/27/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.5M
Actual: -0.1M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 80.71
1st Peak @ 80.45 / Reverse to 80.92 – 0431 (1 min)
-26 ticks / 22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 79.78 – 0516 (46 min)
93 ticks

Notes: Perfect recipe for an indecisive report…nearly matched the forecast and came in just 100k barrels away from the zero line. This caused a double wicker that went short then long. With JOBB, you would have filled short, then been stopped out instantly. This is the case the stop loss is meant to protect against. After the initial indecision, the market went short fighting the previous bullish trend and all 3 SMAs and the R2 Pivot, bottoming out just below the R1 Pivot. I would not trade after the results, even after the move started short, due to the unpredictability and the SMAs in the way.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.27.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jun 272012

6/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.9%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -0.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 79.58
1st Peak @ 79.76 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 80.06 – 0240 (10 min)
48 ticks

Reverse to 79.70 – 0251 (21 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed, falling short on the core reading with downward revisions to the previous reports while exceeding expectations on the regular reading. The reaction surprisingly ran with the strong regular reading, going long decisively. With the market in a long trend prior to the report, the momentum continued without having to fight through any SMAs. The 2nd peak had to fight through the R1 Pivot, then the reversal came back to the 50 SMA.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.26.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jun 262012

6/26/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 63.8
Actual: 62.0
Previous revision: -0.5 to 64.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 79.37
1st Peak @ 79.18 – 0402 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 79.68 – 0408 (8 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report fell moderately short of the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short reaction that had to fight through the 50 SMA near the origin then bounced off of the convergence of the 100 and 200 SMAs. The 200 SMA on the 15 min chart was also at the 79.30 area providing strong support. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 79.28, then had an opportunity to close out with 5-8 ticks of profit as it hovered at the 100 and 200 SMA area. The reversal was able to fight through the 50 SMA to eclipse the short term high from 30 min earlier by 4 ticks.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.21.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 212012

6/21/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 381K
Actual: 387K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 80.60
1st Peak @ 80.42 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 80.83 – 0234 (4 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly worse than the forecast . This caused a short spike of 18 ticks that was quick and unsustained. This is typical on a claims report that is within 10 of the forecast. With JOBB, your order would have filled short. Then move the stop loss to Break even and try to close with a handful of ticks before it reverses. The reversal reclaimed 41 ticks to briefly eclipse all three SMAs before falling again.

NG 07 12 (1 Min) 06.21.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 212012

6/21/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 64B
Actual: 62B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.546
1st Peak @ 2.505 / Reverse to 2.638 – 0431 (1 min)
-41 ticks / 92 ticks

Reversal to 2.554 – 0449 (19 min)
84 ticks

Notes: A nearly matching report caused indecision and a larger double wicker with a span of over 130 ticks as it dropped 41 ticks then rallied for 133. After seeing the indecisive reaction and noting the near matching report, it would be safe and reasonable to sell the peak and buy the dip as big oscillations will happen for about 1 hr. In this case, I would sell on the 33 bar when it could not eclipse the height of the 31 bar and the R1 Pivot. Then note the upward slope and use the 50 SMA as the floor of support and buy when it drops a few ticks under. It continued to use the 50 SMA for support up for 90 min after when a larger reversal took over and it fought through all the SMAs

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.21.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jun 212012

6/21/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7
Actual: -16.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 80.43
1st Peak @ 80.20 – 0401 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 79.82 – 0405 (5 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 80.34 – 0413 (13 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Report fell strongly short of the forecast causing a moderate initial 1 candle spike, but a much larger 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Bearish sentiment was aided by a slightly negative existing home sales report. Market was consolidating prior to the report and the market was below all 3 of the SMAs at the origin. The reversal found resistance at the 80.30 area as that area was tested several times in the next 45 minute and held firm.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 202012

6/20/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.0M
Actual: 2.9M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.31
1st Peak @ 82.77 – 0431 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 83.33 – 0437 (7 min)
56 ticks

2nd Peak @ 82.54 – 0458 (28 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 83.07 – 0527 (57 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in supply when a small drop was expected caused a healthy downward spike and 2nd peak. With the market already selling off, the report went with the grain and continued the momentum. No SMAs were crossed, and the S2 Pivot was at the origin. The 15 minutes of sideways action from 0515 to 0530 is an indication of resistance at the 83.00 level.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.20.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jun 202012

6/20/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.29 (0632)
1st Peak @ 81.55 – 0634 (2 min)
74 ticks

Reverse to 82.18 – 0635 (3 min)
63 ticks

2nd Peak @ 81.43 – 0641 (9 min)
86 ticks

Reverse to 82.90 – 0709 (37 min)
147 ticks

Notes: *Report broke 2 min late at 0632. Report mildly disappointed in that the FOMC expanded “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but the markets were pricing in and hoping for more stimulus. The dollar rallied initially causing the dip in oil, then it sold off sharply in the following 30 min accounting for the strong reversal. If you are looking to place a trade, do not use JOBB, but manual entries are okay if you follow a news feed and keep a close eye on how the DX index reacts. With the rally on the dollar, keep an eye on it until it starts to turn. When it does, buy the dip on oil in the 81.70 area at about 0645. Then stay in until the DX turns or oil crosses the 13 and 20 at about 0718. Another good place to exit is when you see it eclipse the 200 SMA, then retreat back to it.

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