ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12

 30y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12
May 102012
 


CL 12 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12

05/10/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.23/2.8
Actual: 3.09/2.7
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 144’00 (0701)
1st Peak @ 144’17 – 0704 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 144’09 – 0709 (8 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 144’22 – 0811 (70 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 144’31 – 1047 (226 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield of 3.09 is lower than last month causing the bonds to spike long for 17 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs then the S1 Pivot on its upward path. With JOBB you would fill long at 144’03, on top of the 100 SMA, then have seen it shoot upward. As it had no problem crossing the SMAs, watch the interaction with the S1 Pivot. The :03 bar hovered between the S1 and 2 ticks above, so I would close out there at 144’12 for 9 ticks. It did go higher on the :04 bar, but that is not assured, and it left the entire wick naked. After the 1st peak was achieved, it retreated to the S1 Pivot, then slowly ascended to the 2nd Peak. After that it traded sideways in a 5 tick range before climbing another 9 ticks at the end of the trading day.

NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12
May 102012
 


NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12

5/10/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 33B
Actual: 30B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.455
1st Peak @ 2.498 – 0431 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 2.422 – 0445 (15 min)
76 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed all three major SMAs along with the PP Pivot on its upward path, before hitting its nadir just short of 2.500. The report came in with a near matching value of 30B ft3 rise. With JOBB you would have filled long, then had an opportunity to exit when hovering was evident with about 15 ticks profit about 20 sec into the :31 candle. With a matching report, the reversal can be expected to at least come back to the level of the origin. In this case it yielded 76 ticks in 15 min, nearly double the amount of the initial spike.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12

 FED Chairman Speeches  Comments Off on CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12
May 102012
 


CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.10.12

5/10/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0330 HI time / 0930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE /REVERSE
Started @ 97.43
Peak @ 97.24 – 0333 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 97.48 – 0337 (7 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Small spike of 19 ticks that was achieved on the tail of the :33 candle to fight through the 50 SMA and R1 Pivot, but arrest before reaching the 100 SMA. Then the reversal gave back 24 ticks in a quick 4 min after the drop.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.09.12

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.09.12
May 092012
 


CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.09.12

5/9/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.0M
Actual: 3.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.38
1st Peak @ 95.63 – 0431 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.53 – 0447 (17 min)
115 ticks

Reversal to 95.91 – 0502 (32 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a strong long reaction. This is the opposite reaction to the report as expected, but more than likely due to the bounce of the 95.17 level a few minutes before the report which was a test of a low not seen since December. With JOBB you would have filled long and been stopped on the small reversalIt sliced through all three major SMAs along with the S1 Pivot with ease. The reversal came back to the 200 SMA to just nick it.

CL 06 12 (1 Range) 05.04.12

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on CL 06 12 (1 Range) 05.04.12
May 042012
 


CL 06 12 (1 Range) 05.04.12

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.04.12

 Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly  Comments Off on CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.04.12
May 042012
 


CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.04.12

5/4/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 173K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:115K
Previous Revision:+34K to 154K
Rate Forecast: 8.2%
Rate Actual:8.1%
INDECISIVE then DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 100.79
1st Peak @ 100.44 / Reverse to 100.90 – 0231 (1 min)
-35 ticks / 11 ticks

Reversal to 101.17
73 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.83 – 0449 (139 min)
296 ticks

Reversal to 98.58 – 0518 (168 min)
67 ticks

Notes: Initially perceived mixed report with disappointing job #s but a drop in the rate coupled with a healthy upward revision to the previous report. This caused indecision on the :31 candle then a moderate move up followed by a huge downward fan as the reason for the drop in the U-3% was digested. over 500K people left the work force to cause the drop, along with the low # of jobs created caused the bearish tone to prevail. The FAN terminated at the S3 at 97.84 over 2 hrs after the report.

NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12
May 032012
 


NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

5/3/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 31B
Actual: 28B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.325
1st Peak @ 2.345 / Reverse to 2.297 – 0431 (1 min)
20 ticks / -28 ticks

Notes: Nearly a matching report, caused indecision and a double wicker of 48 ticks from top to bottom. JOBB appears to no longer be a safe play for this report due to the high slippage, volatility, and propensity to bypass the JOBB safety stop gates. A trap order would have been a good strategy or a manual order a few minutes into the report.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI  Comments Off on CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12
May 032012
 


CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

5/3/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.5
Actual:53.5K
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.65
1st Peak @ 103.24 – 0401 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 103.47 – 0404 (4 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.03 – 0416 (16 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 103.32 – 0520 (20 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell well short of the forecast. This caused a downward spike with the trend on the first candle of 41 ticks, a 23 tick reversal, then a lower 2nd peak of 62 ticks, then another reversal of 29 ticks. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 103.57 with 2 ticks of slippage, then presented an easy opportunity to close out with at least 20 ticks. the subsequent reversal, 2nd peak, and reversal serve as a gap closing then another move lower followed by the final reversal where it came back up to the 13 and 20 SMAs.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

 Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12
May 032012
 


CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.03.12

5/3/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 381K
Actual:365K
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 105.08
1st Peak @ 105.16 – 0231 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 104.96 – 0234 (4 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than expected after 3 bad weeks with 365K. The spike yielded a meager 8 ticks, then reversed for 20 just below the 50 SMA in 4 min.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.02.12

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.02.12
May 022012
 


CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.02.12

5/2/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.3M
Actual: 2.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 105.54
1st Peak @ 105.31 – 0431 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.28 – 0437 (7 min)
26 ticks (3x bottom)

Reversal to 105.61 – 0506 (36 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a relatively meager and controlled downward spike. No SMAs or Pivots were crossed. After the initial spike, the market recovered most of the dip, then fell for a incremental 2nd Peak of 3 more ticks. Then it went sideways for 20 min before climbing and fighting through the 50 and 100 SMAs for the reversal.

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