US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 04.12.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 122012

4/12/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 355K
Actual:380K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.55
1st Peak @ 103.08 – 0232 (2 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.89 – 0247 (17 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 103.27 – 0300 (30 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed with 380K. The first week in about 3 months for the claims to break out of the 350 – 365K range. Larger and longer than normal reaction due to the break in the 3 month trend and sizeable delta. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots on its way downward.

NG 05 12 (1 Min) 04.12.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 122012

4/12/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 22B
Actual: 8B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.000
1st Peak @ 2.069 – 0431 (1 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 1.971 – 0459 (29 min)
98 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed no SMAs at the origin, crossed the R1 Pivot line about 1/3 up its path, before eclipsing just below the R2 Pivot at 2.070. The report came in with a large offset of 14B ft3 rise, driving the positive spike, but was still a gain in supply. Thus, the reversal recovered all of the spike and more fighting through all SMAs, the R1 and PP Pivots for nearly 100 ticks in 29 min.

NG 05 12 (1 Min) 04.05.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 052012

4/5/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 35B
Actual: 42B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.142
1st Peak @ 2.088 – 0431 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 2.133 – 0441 (11 min)
45 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs right at the origin, crossed the S1 line about a halfway down its path, before dipping a little below the S2 line to bottom out. The report came in with a relatively large offset of 7B ft3 rise, driving the negative spike. Reversal yielded 45 ticks in 10 min.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.04.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 042012

4/4/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.1M
Actual: 9.0M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 102.80
1st Peak @ 101.87 – 0432 (2 min)
93 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.08 – 0521 (51 min)
172 ticks

Reversal to 101.92 – 0545 (75 min)
84 ticks

Notes: Very large gain in supply and offset of the forecast caused a big downward spike that evolved into a downward fan for almost an hour. Initial spike crossed the 100 SMA at the origin then encountered no support buffers achieving a peak of 93 ticks on the :32 candle. After 2 attempts to reverse with the inability to cross the 13 or get the MACD to cross, it would be okay to enter a sell on the :49 candle when it dropped and ride the wave until the big red candle at 0503. It would be safe to buy at the S3 line to play the reversal and ride it until the 13 crossed the 20 and the MACD crossed around 0555.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.04.12

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Apr 042012

4/4/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 205K
Actual: 209K
Previous Revision:+14K to 230K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 102.94
Peak @ 103.00 – 0216 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 102.80 – 0217 (2 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, with a small upward previous report revision. If using JOBB, your order would not have filled long at about 103.00 or not filled at all due to slippage. after that is retreated to hover 2-5 ticks in the red for 45 seconds, before falling 15 ticks on the next candle. Close out manually with 3-4 ticks loss rather than waiting for it to hit your stop loss.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.04.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 042012

4/4/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.9
Actual:56.0K
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 102.92
Peak @ 102.70 – 0402 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 102.90 – 0404 (4 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell short of the forecast. This caused a downward spike of 22 ticks. The spike cut through the 200 SMA near the origin, then the 50 SMA about halfway down, and the 100 SMA at the peak. Then the reversal came back up to the 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have gotten in short at 102.91 since the :00 candle dropped a little at the end. Then it slowly dropped and hovered at the 50 SMA before quickly dropping to the 100 SMA. The safe play would be to exit at about 102.80 with the 50 SMA providing support.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.03.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Apr 032012

4/3/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5%
Actual:1.3%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -1.1%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 104.64
Peak @ 104.43 – 0401 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 104.74 – 0408 (8 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell short of the forecast along with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 21 ticks in 1 minute that crossed both the 200 SMA about halfway down its path. It could not sustain the drop, and methodically reversed upward for 31 ticks in 7 minutes hitting resistance at the junction of the 50 and 100 SMAs

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.02.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 022012

4/2/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.3
Actual: 53.4
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 102.72
1st Peak @ 102.81 – 0401 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 102.55 – 0402 (2 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast generating a dull reaction. JOBB would have gotten you in long at about 102.76. You would have seen a spike up to 102.81, then hovering between 1and 4 ticks of profit for 20 sec. This is an obvious situation to close out. This report normally delivers a large spike in a quick manner, so the absence from the norm and the hovering are tripwires to get out with a small profit. Had you waited it out, it would hit your stop loss about halfway through the :01 candle.

NG 05 12 (1 Min) 03.29.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 292012

3/29/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 49B
Actual: 57B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.235
1st Peak @ 2.175 – 0432 (2 min)
60 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.165 – 0435 (5 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 2.190 – 0449 (19 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed no major SMAs, but it crossed the S2 line about a quarter of the way down its path. The report came in with a relatively large offset of 8B ft3 rise, so there was a rare 2nd peak that hit the S3 line before producing a small retracement of 25 ticks.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 282012

3/28/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.8M
Actual: 7.1M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 105.27
1st Peak @ 105.40 / Reverse to 104.92 – 0431 (1 min)
13 ticks / -35 ticks

Notes: Very volatile and erratic report that saw violent 40 tick swings in less than a second with over 5000 contracts exchanged in the :31 candle alone. With JOBB you would have filled short prematurely on the :30 candle then stopped immediately with a 15 tick loss as the whisaw began. It is unclear why this report reacted this way, but this happens about 1-2 times out of every 10. The CL had sold off 135 ticks in the 3 hrs prior to the report, so it could have been oversold.

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