US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Mar 282012

03/28/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.6%
Core Actual: 1.6%
Previous revision:+0.2% to -3.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual:2.2%
Previous Revision:+0.4% to -3.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 106.13
Peak @ 106.02 / retrace to 106.15 – 0331 (1 min)
-11 / 2 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast with the more influential core reading, while the regular reading fell short, and there were small upward revisions to the previous reports. This prevented the market from executing a spike. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 106.05 with slippage and observed the market retreat to bob between 10 ticks in the red and the breakeven point. I setup a buy limit at the breakeven point and my order filled about halfway through the :01 candle. You could also manually close when you see the price close to breakeven, but you are not likely to secure the best exit that way. Notice the low point of the :01 candle is a triple bottom with the :28 and :15 candles before it. If you waited this one out, you would have gotten lucky and seen a small profit on the :03 candle as it briefly dipped through the S2 line.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.27.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Mar 272012

3/27/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 70.3
Actual: 70.2
Previous revision: +0.8 to 71.6
DULL REACTION

Notes: Report matched the forecast almost exactly with a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a quick pop upward on the 04:00 candle that would have filled you long with JOBB at about 107.62. It reversed for almost 30 ticks before falling again. Then it retreated down to bob around 3-7 ticks in the red before it would have hot your stop loss on the 04:02 candle. Close out with a handful of ticks loss rather than wait for it to hit your stop loss. Do not look to trade a reverse on this either as the influence of the report wears off quickly and the volume of the spike was low so there is little to reverse.

CL 05 15 (1 Min) 03.26.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Mar 262012

3/26/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0200 HI time / 0800 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 106.62
1st Peak @ 106.85 – 0201 (1 min)
23 ticks (2x top)

2nd Peak @ 107.09 – 0205 (5 min)
47 ticks

3rd Peak @ 107.22 – 0214 (14 min)
60 ticks

Final Peak @ 107.32 – 0221 (21 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 107.00 – 0236 (36 min)
32 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke hinted strongly that QE3 is coming soon due to the perceived problem of long term unemployment still dragging the economy down. The markets liked that and it put traders in a buying mood. You would also notice that your order did not fill until about 20 sec into the :01 candle. For the FED reports that is okay as the reaction is delayed, but not dull. With the report crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs, you would be wise to exit near the top of the :01 candle. After seeing that it never dropped below the 50 SMA on the next two candles, it is gearing up for a 2nd peak and you could enter another buy order on the 02:03 candle as it ascends. While it hit its successive peaks the retracement never crossed below the 13 EMA. Also notice the MACD did not flatten until at/after the final peak.

NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.22.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 222012

3/22/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 10B
Actual: 11B
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 2.306
1st Peak @ 2.250 – 0431 (1 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 2.297 – 0433 (3 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed no major SMAs, but it crossed the S2 line about halfway down its path. The report also came in nearly matching the forecast, so the retracement was big and the reversal recaptured nearly all of the drop by the 0433 candle.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.16.12

Industrial Production Comments Off

Mar 162012

3/16/2012 Monthly Industrial Production (0315 HI time / 0915 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual:0.0%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 0.4%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 106.36
1st Peak @ 106.18 – 0317 (2 min)
18 ticks
2nd Peak @ 106.17 – 0320 (5 min)
19 ticks

Reverse to 106.38 – 0327 (12 min)
21 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, but previous report was revised upward by the same margin. These offset, but the current report negativity drove the small reaction. The initial spike fell to almost hit the 50 SMA, then after retracing just touched it on the 2nd peak. The reversal recovered the loss 7 minutes later.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.15.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Mar 152012

3/15/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 11.9
Actual:12.5
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 105.43
1st Peak @ 105.50 – 0401 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 105.33 – 0402 (2 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report barely exceeded forecast, but basically matched it causing a dull reaction. I closed out after my order did not fill in 15 seconds. If you did not cancel the order, you would have filled long at about 105.49, then seen it pull back with about 3-4 ticks of heat at the close of the candle. Close out with the minor loss before it drops further.

NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.15.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 152012

3/15/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -58B
Actual: -64B
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 2.289
1st Peak @ 2.334 – 0431 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 2.288 – 0449 (19 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed no major SMAs, but it peaked just below the R1 line. Reversal came back to the 50 SMA 19 min after the report.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.14.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 142012

3/14/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.2M
Actual: 1.8M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 106.56
1st Peak @ 107.02 – 0432 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 106.58 – 0452 (22 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Spiked upward without crossing any SMAs, so despite the oscillations, when you see the wick on the 0431 candle, setup a limit exit order near the top of the wick and wait for the market to hit it. In this case the spike bled over into the 0432 candle and did not really reverse until the 0434 candle due to no SMAs to pull it back. Eventually it fell, but the reversal stalled and took an unusually long 22 min. The market dramatically fell for the next 30 minutes, but this was not due to the influence of the report.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.14.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Mar 142012

3/14/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0400 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE /REVERSE
Started @ 106.54
Peak @ 106.71 – 0401 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 106.44 – 0417 (17 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Delayed spike as the spike did not start until 20 seconds after the 0401 candle started. Speech caused a minor upward impulse. Reversal took 17 minutes eventually fighting through the 50 SMA briefly to touch the 200 SMA. I would close when it penetrated the 50 SMA with the 200 nearby.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.13.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Mar 132012

3/13/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 106.86 (0815)
1st Peak @ 106.72 – 0816 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 107.18 – 0821 (6 min)
46 ticks (2x top)

2nd Peak @ 106.62 – 0829 (14 min)
24 ticks

Then continued alternating reversal / peak until 0940

Notes: Report released on time, but the FED largely “voted present” leaving all aspects of current policy unchanged and not hinting at new policy changes in the future. No allusion to QE-3 (either taking it off the table or describing it as a future necessity) was made. This caused a long term roller coaster in the market with no discernible positive or negative trend. The first 10 minutes after the release were volatile with large alternating red and green candles of large magnitude and long wicks/tails. After seeing watching the news at the time of the release and seeing the market reaction, I would stay out of this report. The only safe thing.

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