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2/29/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: -0.2M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 106.62
1st Peak @ 106.09 – 0531 (1 min)
53 ticks
Reversal to 106.75 – 0536 (6 min)
66 ticks
Notes: Report released in the middle of FED chair Bernanke testimony before Congress. Market was already in a down trend. Report spiked down, then reversed almost up to the 100 SMA.
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2/29/2012 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 106.10
Peak@ 107.21 – 0938 (38 min)
111 ticks.
Reversal to 106.82 – 1006 (66 min)
39 ticks
Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in most sectors, and greater growth in others. After 2 rises with subsequent gap closes right out of the gate, it rose about 100 ticks from 0920 to 0929. The short term market was a bit oversold due to the 237 tick drop from FED Testimony earlier in the morning, and this report provided the necessary catalyst to buy. As before, DO NOT USE JOBB, although it would have worked out for you in this case. After about 3-4 min the direction is still not obvious, so I would wait. The first series of candles that give me an obvious indication are the long tails in the 0917 – 0920 area coupled with the inability to touch the 50 SMA. I would buy around 106.25 on the 0922-0923 candle and close at 0931 around 107.05.
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2/29/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE (into DOWNWARD FAN)
Started @ 107.09
1st Peak @ 107.23 – 0501 (1 min)
14 ticks
Reverse Peak 1 @ 106.70 – 0509 (9 min) Reverse Peak 3 @ 105.28 – 0552 (52 min)
53 ticks 195 ticks
Reverse Peak 2 @ 106.53 – 0520 (11 min) Reverse Final Peak @ 104.84 – 0633 (93 min)
29 ticks 237 ticks
Pullback Upward to 106.06 – 0716 (136 min)
122 ticks
Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee. Caused a small spike, then reversed course, fought through all three major SMAs and fell precipitously until 0633 for 237 ticks. The downspike at 0531 and following reversal are due to the CL inventory report. After 0540 the inventory report had been forgotten and Bernanke was the focus again. Whatever he said at about 0545 caused a 130 tick drop in about 7 minutes. There was a retreat upward following lasting 18 min for nearly 100 ticks, but it could not clear the 50 SMA, and fell again over the next 20 min to its low point. Then the market pulled back upward.
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2/29/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.8%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 106.92
1st Peak@ 107.13 – 0331 (1 min)
21 ticks
Reversal to 106.67 – 0336 (36 min)
46 ticks
Notes: Report was moderately positive, however under current market conditions the reverse reaction tends to be true, as good data has been triggering the sale of US bonds. Quick pop up to 107.13 then seesawed between 107.00 and 107.10 for the rest of the minute before falling significantly on the 0332 candle due to crossing both the 100 and 200 SMAs. I would close out around 107.08 by setting a stop limit order there. The reversal doubled the initial spike by slicing through all SMAs, pulling back to the 50 SMA, then falling more to bottom out at 46 ticks off the peak on the 0336 candle. Then we saw a recovery back to the 200 SMA before reversing to the CL open. The activity after 0336 to about 0430 was due to the influence of the report (at least partially), but not predictable.
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2/28/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 63.1
Actual: 70.8
Previous revision: +0.4 to 61.5
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 108.48 *spiked prematurely in last :03 of 0500 candle about 14 ticks, but not represented by start level.
1st Peak @ 108.79 – 0501 (1 min)
31 ticks
Reversal to 108.10 – 0516 (16 min)
69 ticks (2x bottom)
Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast with a small upward previous revision. This caused a spike of 31 ticks not counting the premature upward 14 tick move upward. It spiked up to cross the PP line and quickly pulled back. The default range of the chart would have left this Pivot Point off the screen on the top. This is a good reminder to check for these in the time before the report breaks, and collapse your screen to bring it into the picture in case the reaction approaches. The spike was quick and promptly dropped 8 ticks. If you had a stop limit set there before the spike, it would have filled, but not likely on a manual close. Reversal yielded 69 ticks to briefly dip below the 200 and 50 SMAs.
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2/28/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual:-3.2%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: -0.8%
Regular Actual:-4.0%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 3.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 108.48
1st Peak @ 108.03 – 0333 (3 min)
45 ticks
2nd Peak @ 107.62 – 0347 (17 min)
86 ticks
Retrace to 108.27 – 0423 (53 min)
65 ticks
Notes: Report came in extremely negative as the economic websites reported the worst reading in 3 years. The core report and regular report disappointed causing a much larger than normal drop. I did not anticipate the 2nd peak and closed at 108.05 on the 0333 candle as it bounced off of the S1 line there. From 0340 – 0347 had a drastic secondary drop of 60 ticks to achieve a 2nd peak of 86 ticks. Then reversed 65 ticks over 36 minutes for a total influence period of nearly an hour. Remember to be patient if trading the reversal. *Drop at 0401 was due to the CL open.
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2/23/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9M
Actual: 1.6M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 106.03
1st Peak @ 106.20 / Reversal to 105.95 – 0531 (1 min)
17 ticks / -8 ticks
Notes: Spiked up 17 ticks, hitting the 200 SMA and hovering for a few seconds before reversing. Get out at or near the 200 SMA. Not much magnitude on this report since the forecast was close to the actual report.
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2/16/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0400 HI time / 0900 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.62
Peak @ 101.84 – 0401 (1 min)
22 ticks
2nd Peak @ 102.17 – 0415 (15 min)
55 ticks
Reversal to 101.88 – 0421 / 0440 (21/40 min)
29 ticks (2x bottom)
Notes: Speech released at the same time as the open of the CL market. Positive catalyst for the market with no real retreat until the 2nd peak at 0415. It did achieve a possible “3rd peak” 3 ticks higher at 0434. When you see a pattern in the area of 0415 (large candle with little wick, then double top, and long wick followed by drop, this is a good indication the upward momentum has arrested…I would close in that area.
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2/16/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 9.0
Actual:10.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.87
1st Peak @ 102.26 – 0502 (2 min)
39 ticks
2nd Peak @102.26 – 0506 (6 min)
39 ticks
Reversal to 102.00 – 0510 / 0514 (10 min) / 101.90 – 0526 (26 min)
26 ticks (2x bottom) / 36 ticks
Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast causing a larger than expected spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . The 0401 candle crossed the 50 SMA and PP line upward at about the halfway point, which often causes a pullback and full reversal. SInce the 0401 candle closed 1 tick below its max value, it is worth waiting to see what the 0402 does. It retraced only 3 ticks before rising another 20. I would get out when it hovered at the 100.25 level for more than 8 sec.
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2/16/2012 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.68M
Actual: 0.68M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 0.64M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.02
1st Peak @ 101.18 – 0331 (1 min)
16 ticks
2nd Peak @ 101.35 – 0342/0346/0347 (12/16/17 min)
33 ticks
Notes: Report matched forecast with a small previous revision. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (very positive at only 348K) and PPI (negative at .1%). I would not advise trading this report as 3 medium movers were breaking at the same time. In this case the positive Unemployment report drove the action. First peak at the 200 SMA; 2nd peak at the S1.