US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.02.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Feb 022012

2/2/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 97.03
1st Peak @ 97.25 – 0502 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reverse to 97.00 – 0506 (6 min)
25 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies before House Budget Committee on economic outlook and federal budget situation. Caused a moderate spike, and slightly larger reversal. The spike had to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs and peaked at at a double top from 0430, causing it to retreat from its peak. After the spike and reversal, the market was stuck straddling the 200 SMA seesawing up and down until 0529 when it broke out of the channel to drop to 96.86. Due to the double top at 97.25, and the retreat from hitting that value, I would consider getting out there.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 012012

2/1/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.2M
Actual: 4.2M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 99.27
1st Peak @ 98.58 – 0532 (2 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 98.99 – 0539 (9 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report spike was free and clear of all indicators, so the peak was seen on the 2nd candle. Reversal closed the gap up to hit the 13 SMA.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 012012

2/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual:54.1
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 98.77
1st Peak @ 98.89 – 0401 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 98.60 – 0402 (2 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast causing a minor spike (in the wrong direction), and immediate reversal on the 0402 candle. Due to the fall of the market in the previous 30 min, reaction was probably priced in. Still this is an odd reaction as even a 0.5 disparity has caused a 30-40 tick 1st peak in the past. With JOBB, take the meager profit on the 0401 candle as the reaction is clearly underwhelming.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 02.01.12

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Feb 012012

2/1/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 198K
Actual:170K
Previous Revision:-33K to 292k
INDECISIVE
Started @ 99.11
Peak @ 99.06 / Retrace to 99.26 – 0316 (1 min)
-5 ticks / 15 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, and previous report revised largely downward. The 0316 candle initially fell would have gotten you in with 1-3 ticks of profit, then hovered for about 7 sec for retracing. I would close out at that point, breaking even or eating a small 2-4 tick loss.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.31.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jan 312012

1/31/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 68.2
Actual: 61.1
Previous revision: +0.3 to 64.8
INDECISIVE
Started @ 100.53
1st Peak @ 100.63 / retrace to 100.42 – 0501 (1 min)
10 ticks / -11 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast with a slight revision to the previous report. This report is an anomaly. No clear reason to analyze why it behaved as it did, but this occasionally happens. Let the stop loss help you mitigate your loss here.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.27.12

Advance GDP Comments Off

Jan 272012

1/27/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.0%
Actual: 2.8%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 1.8%
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 100.24
1st Peak@ 99.80 – 0331 (1 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.30 – 0401/0413 (31/43 min)
94 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 100.40 – 0446 (76 min)
110 ticks

Notes: Report was moderately negative, and the previous revision was strongly negative. This contributed to the downward fan. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. After seeing the double bottom at 99.30, I would close out. Then I would trade the reversal for about 30 min.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.26.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jan 262012

01/26/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.9%
Core Actual:2.1%
Previous revision:+0.2% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 2.1%
Regular Actual:3.0%
Previous Revision:+0.5% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 100.71
Peak @ 100.77 / retrace to 100.63 – 0331 (1 min)
6 / -8 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with moderate upward revisions to the previous reports. Report was released at the same time as weekly unemployment which came in at a disappointing 377K. I would not trade this report as the unemployment claims caused the 0331 candle to be volatile and indecisive. The reaction was restrained overall as the low point was a double bottom at 100.63 and the high point was a double top at 100.86, only a 23 tick swing.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.25.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 252012

1/25/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.9M
Actual: 3.6M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 98.06
1st Peak @ 98.31 / Reversal to 97.89 – 0531 (1 min)
25 ticks / -17 ticks

Notes: Spiked up about 15 ticks then retreated. Try to close out when the initial spike is less than 25 ticks total otherwise your stop loss will protect you.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.25.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jan 252012

1/25/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0730 HI time / 1230 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 99.06 (0728)
Peak @ 100.76 – 0817 (49 min)
170 ticks

Reversal to 99.61 – 0926 (118 min)
115 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: *Report broke 2 min early at 0732. Report was positive as the FED reported the US economy is expanding moderately and pledged to keep interest rates low until late 2014. This level of revelation by the FED has never been seen before, and the markets reacted strongly. Again, DO NOT USE JOBB due to uncertain release time. After seeing the initial reaction and interpreting the statement to be bullish, I would have gotten in long around 0731 at the 50 SMA and get out after the last spike at about 0818 / 0819 since the market crossed the R2 line with a big candle.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.19.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 192012

1/19/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0600 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 2.9M
Actual: -3.4M
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 101.75
1st Peak @ 102.10 – 0601 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.47 – 0608 (8 min)
63 ticks

Notes: Report broke on Thurs at 1100 EDT due to Monday holiday. Spiked upward through the 50 and 100 SMAs to hit the 200 SMA and retreated. Reversal almost doubled initial spike in magnitude.

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