US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.19.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jan 192012

1/19/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 10.7
Actual:7.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.04
1st Peak @ 101.84 – 0501 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @101.60 – 0506 (6 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 101.92 – 0510 (10 min) / 102.12 – 0527 (27 min)
32 ticks / 52 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast causing a small spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Market was engaged in a downward FAN and reversed to the 50 SMA / R1 line prior to the report, so it was sitting at a level of resistance prior to the report broke. Since it crossed the 50 close to its origin, the retracement on the 0502 candle was minimal, and it hit a 2nd peak more than double the drop of the first.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.19.12

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Jan 192012

1/19/2012 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.68M
Actual: 0.68M
Previous revision: none
INDECISIVE REACTION
Started @ 101.81
Peak@ 101.94 / Retrace to 101.72 – 0231 (1 min)

Notes: Report matched forecast and no previous revision. Indecisive reaction with 18 tick swing. Probably inevitable to avoid stop loss filling on this one.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.18.12

Industrial Production Comments Off

Jan 182012

1/18/2012 Monthly Industrial Production (0415 HI time / 0915 EST)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual:0.4%
Previous revision:-0.1% to 0.3%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 101.29
1st Peak @ 101.07 – 0416 (2 min)
22 ticks

Retrace to 101.33 – 0419/0420 (4/5 min)
26 ticks (2x top)

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, and previous report was revised downward. Small short reaction aided by downward fan. Price moved downward 1more waves after report, but this is after the short term reaction of the report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.13.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 132012

1/13/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -44.8B
Actual: -47.8B
Previous Revision: +0.2B to -43.3B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 99.65
1st Peak @ 99.46 – 0332 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.37 – 0336 – 0342 (6-12 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, but previous report revised slightly upward. Reaction was negative overall, hitting support at the 200 SMA. Initial reaction was dull, not filling order until 30 sec after report release. Long order would have filled, then retraced. I would cancel out after 10 sec of order not filling.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.12.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 122012

1/12/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:-0.2%
Previous revision:+0.1% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual:0.1%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.11
1st Peak @ 101.77 – 0333 (3 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.52 – 0346 (16 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 102.13 – 0412 (42 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of forecast causing a strong downward spike and follow on reversal . Spike had to fight through the R1 line (long tail on the 0231 candle) then fell without much resistance until 0346. Reports broke at same time as the weekly unemployment claims report which was strongly negative at 399K, adding some of the momentum to the spike. I would probably trade this report as unemployment claims would be overshadowed by retail sales.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.11.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Jan 112012

1/11/2012 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 101.66
Peak@ 101.01 – 0929/0949 (29/49 min)
65 ticks (2x bottom).

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in all but one sector. This caused a methodical drop in oil of 65 ticks over 29 minutes. DO NOT USE JOBB. Wait about 3-4 min after the reports breaks to discern the direction, then if you see the indications of a FAN, place an order with the trend. Peak was reached at 0929, but even if you wait another 20 min, it double bottomed.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 01.06.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 062012

1/6/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 152K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:200K
Previous Revision:-20K to 100K
Rate Forecast: 8.7%
Rate Actual:8.5%
Previous Revision +0.1% to 8.7%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 102.57
Peak @ 102.98 – 0331 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 102.51 – 0332 (2 min) / 102.30 – 0342 (12 min)
47 ticks / 68 ticks

Notes: Mostly positive report exceeded the forecast with jobs and the rate, but disappointing previous revisions and the false rosy rate figures caused a relatively meager spike and follow on immediate and larger reversal. This is the second month where the Labor Dept is cooking the books, and the markets continue to see through it. Try to close out with just a handful of ticks on the 0331 candle.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 01.06.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 062012

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 01.05.12

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 052012

1/5/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 176K
Actual:325K
Previous Revision: -2K to 204k
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 103.46
1st Peak @ 103.71 – 0316 (1 min)
25 ticks

Retrace to 103.31 – 0318 (3 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report greatly exceeded forecast, as previous report revised barely downward. 0316 candle crossed the PP line by 10 ticks and then held most of its gains. Still this is about as much as an ADP report will deliver…close out above the PP. Reversal erased all the gains back to the 50 SMA. This is pretty remarkable given such a positive report. Volatility continued until 0340 or so also sue to the unemployment claims released at 0330.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 01.05.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 052012

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