US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.02.11

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Nov 022011

11/2/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN (with initial spike)
Started @ 94.00 (0632)
1st Peak @ 93.29 – 0636 (4 min)
71 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.45 – 0725 (53 min)
155 ticks

Reverse to 93.47 – 0748 (36 min) / 80.66 – 0920 (61 min)

Notes: *Report broke 2 min late at 0632. Report mildly disappointed in continuing “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but most doubt it will have any effect. Market was in a FIST prior to report release. After seeing the long tail on the 0633 candle and the 0635 candle start below the 100 / 200 SMAs with no pullback, I would get in going short below the 50 SMA. I would set my stop loss about 10 ticks above the 100 / 200 SMA anticipating a retrace and 2nd fall. I would consider closing on the 0711 candle, but after seeing the long wick, it should continue down again (MACD also did not really cross yet). Then I would close on the 0724 candle after seeing the double bottom.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 012011

11/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual:50.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 91.06
1st Peak @ 90.41 – 0401 (1 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 90.89 – 0402 (2 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, and immediate reversal. The 200 SMA acted like a magnet limiting the spike and the reversal, then preventing any major departure from it in the following 10 minutes. With the 0401 candle crossing the 200 SMA halfway and not able to reach the 100 SMA, I would wait until the 0402 candle until it started to go long and close out at about 90.60, just in case the 0402 candle would fall again.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.27.11

Advance GDP Comments Off

Oct 272011

10/27/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.5%
Previous Revision: none
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 93.25
1st Peak@ 93.57 – 0231 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.05 – 0248 (18 min)
80 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.11 – 0313/0316 (43/46 min)
86 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 92.98 – 0351 (81 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Report was slightly positive, with no previous revision. This caused an upward fan of medium amount. I would use the JOBB strategy here and stay in for about 45 min where the trend usually ends. After seeing the double top at 94.05, I would close out. The reversal took about 35 min and yielded more ticks – also good to trade.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.26.11

Durable Goods Comments Off

Oct 262011

10/26/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual:1.7%
Previous revision:-0.3% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.7%
Regular Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: none
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 93.55
Peak @ 93.86 – 0231 (1 min)
31 ticks (lost it all on retrace)

Retrace to 92.73 – 0246 (9 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Report came in exceeding the forecast overall with a small revisions to the previous report causing a small upward spike up to the 100 / 50 / 200 SMAs then retracing before the candle closed out.. This report was also encompassed inside of a downward FAN – the initial spike was part of a gap close /reversal, but being news driven, promptly fell again. Then the drop was a continuation of the FAN. The report spike was a blip in the overall chart movement, albeit a 31 tick blip.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.25.11

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Oct 252011

10/25/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 46.1
Actual: 39.8
Previous revision: +1.0 to 45.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.66
1st Peak @ 93.40 – 0401 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.13 – 0409 (9 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 93.96 – 0421 (21 min)
83 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on full reversal . About 25 ticks of the 0400 candle was a drop in the last second, so you would get some of that with JOBB. Market peaked between the 50 SMA and the R1 line, then retraced to approach the 100 SMA before falling to hit the R1 line. Then it reversed to go above the 100 SMA. I would trade this with JOBB, ride the retrace and close out after it hit the R1 line at 0409 around 93.20.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 10.20.11

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Oct 202011

10/20/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -9.0
Actual:8.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 86.81
1st Peak @ 87.36 – 0401 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 86.75 – 0408 (8 min) /
61 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and larger reversal . The reversal below the pre-report value, and the nature of the second rise to fall short of the 0401 spike and take 15 min to happen keep this from being a SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK case, although if the spike had been greater, it could have been. When the 0401 spike crossed the 100 SMA and the 200 SMA (halfway up), it had to pull back. If the spike had been another 20 to 30 ticks higher, then the pull of the 200 to retrace would have been less, and a 2nd peak at about 0405-0408 would have likely occurred.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.19.11

Beige Book Comments Off

Oct 192011

10/19/2011 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 88.73
Peak@ 86.50 – 0830 (30 min)
223 ticks

Notes: Report was underperforming overall showing moderate or no economic growth in all 12 sectors. This caused a methodical drop in oil of 223 ticks over 30 minutes. DO NOT USE JOBB. Wait about 3-4 min after the reports breaks to discern the direction, then if you see the indications of a FAN, place an order with the trend. Peak was reached at 0830, but even if you wait another 15 min, only about 15 ticks of profit would be lost.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.19.11

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Oct 192011

10/19/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.61M
Actual: 0.59M
Previous revision: +0.01M to .63M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.90
Peak@ 89.12 – 0231 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak@ 89.17 – 0233 (3 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in close enough to the forecast and previous report was revised upward but reaction was reaction was opposite of expected. The 200 and 100 SMAs drove the retracement and 2nd peak. Price moved upward after 0233 until 0250, but this is after the short term reaction of the report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.17.11

Industrial Production Comments Off

Oct 172011

10/17/2011 Monthly Industrial Production (0315 HI time / 0915 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision:-0.2% to 0.0%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 87.41
1st Peak @ 87.23 – 0317 (2 min)
18 ticks

Retrace to 87.34 – 0318 (3 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report matched forecast, but previous report was revised downward. Small short reaction aided by downward fan initiated at 0305 (10 min before report broke). Price moved downward 2 more waves after report, but this is after the short term reaction of the report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.14.11

Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 142011

10/14/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.6%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual:1.1%
Previous Revision:+0.3% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.52
1st Peak @ 86.89 – 0231 (1 min)
37 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.05 – 0246 (16 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 86.65 – 0300 (30 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Strong report came in well above forecast causing a healthy spike and smaller reversal. After initial spike, market hovered in the realm of the R2 line, and eventually peaked about 10 ticks above. After seeing the apex of the 0231 candle, I would close out at the R2 line at 86.95. Notice the reversal bottomed out on the 0300 candle and the 0301 candle spiked up again at the open.

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