US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.13.11

Trade Balance Comments Off

Oct 132011

10/13/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -46.0B
Actual: -45.6B
Previous Revision: -0.8B to -45.6B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 85.03
1st Peak @ 84.64 – 0233 (3 min)
39 ticks

Retrace to 85.01 – 0239 – 0242 (9-12 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report slightly exceeded forecast, but previous report revised mildly downward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (matched forecast at 404K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. The long tail on the 0231 candle is typical of the unemployment report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.07.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 072011

10/7/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 55K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:103K
Previous Revision:+57K to 57K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual: 9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.77
1st Peak @ 84.20 – 0234 (4 min)
143 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.57 – 0240 (10 min)
180 ticks

Reversal to 83.69 – 0301 (31 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Strongly positive report that exceeded the forecast with a upward revision to the previous report causing a healthy spike upward. I would close out at the beginning of the 0234 candle when it started to reverse, or possibly wait for the 2nd spike at 0240 (143 ticks is large, but not gigantic).

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 10.07.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 072011

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 10.05.11

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Oct 052011

10/5/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 76K
Actual:91K
Previous Revision: -2K to 89k
Spike with 2nd peak
Started @ 78.76
1st Peak @ 78.97 – 0216 (1 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 79.02 – 0219 (4 min)
26 ticks

Retrace to 78.66 – 0221 (6 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast, but previous report revised slightly downward. Large wick on the 0216 candle due to crossing the 100 SMA and pull from the 50 SMA. I would close out at 78.87 when it hovered a few ticks above the 100 SMA for 12 sec. It did go up higher after the hovering and had a 2nd peak, but I would play it safe since reversals often happen after hovering especially if a higher level SMA was just crossed. Notice the seesaw up and down centered on the 100 SMA for 10 min.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 10.04.11

FED Testimony Comments Off

Oct 042011

10/4/2011 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 76.49
1st Peak @ 76.42 / Retrace to 76.64 – 0401 (1 min)
-7 ticks / 15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 76.10 – 0406 (6 min)
39 ticks

Reverse to 77.37 – 0418 (18 min)
127 ticks (3x top)

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the economic outlook and recent monetary policy actions before the Joint Economic Committee. Indecisive at first would have gotten you in short then retraced long and hit the stop loss. I would trade the bounce off the S2 line long at 0406, keep an eye on it crossing the 50/100/200 SMAs, then get out at the triple top.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 10.03.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 032011

10/3/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual:51.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 77.59
1st Peak @ 78.42 – 0403 (3 min)
83 ticks

2nd Peak @ 78.86 – 0414 (14 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 78.22 – 0424 (24 min)
64 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . 1st peak crossed the50 SMA about halfway up, and the 100 SMA near its apex, then retreated to the 100 SMA. The retracement between peaks came to bounce off of the 50 SMA then a determined rise to cross the 100 SMA easily and then the 200 SMA. I would watch the 0411 candle and seeing it clear the 200 SMA remain in until 0414-0415 as it nearly triple topped.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.28.11

Durable Goods Comments Off

Sep 282011

9/28/2011 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual:-0.1%
Previous revision: none
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 4.1%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 84.15
Peak @ 84.41 – 0232 (2 min)
26 ticks

Retrace to 83.80 – 0239 (9 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast overall with no or minimal revisions to the previous report causing a small upward spike with a larger follow on reversal. This report was also encompassed inside of a downward FAN – the initial spike was part of a reversal up to the 50 SMA, then the drop was a continuation of the FAN. In this case the report did not have much shock value, so it only rose 26 ticks, then fell 61. I would watch it interact with the 50 SMA when it had trouble rising much higher, close out at or just above it. With the downward slope, if it has a secondary peak, it will be lower.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.27.11

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 272011

9/27/2011 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 46.2
Actual: 45.4
Previous revision: +0.7 to 45.2
INDECISIVE
Started @ 84.04
1st Peak @ 83.93 / retrace to 84.25 – 0401 (1 min)
-11 ticks / 21 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell mildly short of forecast causing an indecisive volatile candle with no clear direction in the 0402-0404 range. If you had used JOBB, you would have been shorted at about 83.97 level. You would see about 3-4 ticks of profit briefly, then a retrace to 4-7 ticks of loss where it hovered for about 15 sec. I would get out there rather than gamble on the return or have it hit the stop loss as the hovering illustrates a lack of conviction.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 09.21.11

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Sep 212011

9/21/2011 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.46 (0823)
1st Peak @ 86.41 – 0827 (4 min) (after spike up 34 ticks on 0824 Candle)
105 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.01 – 0837 (14 min)
145 ticks

Reversal to 86.99 – 0907 (44 min)
98 ticks (2x top)

Notes: *Report broke 8 min late at 0823. Report mildly disappointed in establishing “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but most doubt it will have any effect. Again, DO NOT USE JOBB due to uncertain release time. Notice the 0817 and 0818 candles where traders jump the gun anticipating. Then the 0824 candle spiked up 34 ticks before falling 23, a 57 tick swing. I would watch the 0825 candle seeing it decisively red, then jump in short on the 0826 in the 87.12 area with a 15 tick stop loss. I would get out at 0838 or 0843 after seeing the tails on a 2nd peak.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 09.20.11

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Sep 202011

9/20/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual: 0.62M
No previous revision
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.16
Peak@ 87.04 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak@ 86.90 – 0237 (7 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report came in close enough to the forecast but reaction was reaction was opposite of expected. I would ride the heat in this case around 2-3 min after the report when a level of resistance was set at 87.17 and it eventually fell.

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