-091511.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/15/2011 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0245 HI time / 0845 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.16
Peak @ 89.95 – 0249 (4 min)
21 ticks
2nd Peak @ 89.80 – 0719 (34 min)
36 ticks
Reversal to 90.34 – 0301 (16 min)
44 ticks
Notes: Speech caused minor downward impulse. 2nd Peak was the candle right before the open, and reversal was the open at 0301.
-091511.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/15/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -14.7
Actual:-17.5
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.84
1st Peak @ 90.69 / retrace to 91.01 – 0401 (1 min)
-15 ticks / 17 ticks
Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast causing an indecisive volatile at 0401. Also notice the pre-report market position was right on the R1 line which acts as a gravity pull. With JOBB, you would have gotten in short and then retraced 10 ticks before the first second passed by. Then it rose methodically upward for 40 sec to go 17 ticks above the candle entry, before giving that back in the last 20 sec. The stop loss would have gotten you out here. It did a spike/retrace on the following candles, but the long wicks and tails indicate much volatility, but after the 0401 candle, you never know what it will do.
-091511.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/15/2011 Monthly Industrial Production (0315 HI time / 0915 EDT)
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual:0.2%
Previous revision: none
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 90.30
1st Peak @ 90.60 – 0318 (3 min)
30 ticks
Retrace to 90.00 – 0324 (9 min)
60 ticks
Notes: Fairly strong report above forecast. 2+ min spike followed by solid 60 tick / 7 min reversal that reached the 100 and 200 SMAs.
-091411.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/14/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.1%
Previous revision:-0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual:0.0%
Previous Revision:-0.2% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.36
1st Peak @ 90.17 – 0231 (1 min)
19 ticks
2nd Peak @ 90.07 – 0233 (3 min)
29 ticks
Reversal to 90.54 – 0246 (16 min)
47 ticks
Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a moderate downward spike and follow on reversal . Spike had to fight through the 200 SMA (long tail on the 0231 candle) then the reversal peaked just above the 100 and 50 SMAs. Reports broke at same time as the PPI report which was mildly positive, taking away some of the momentum from the spike. I would trade this report as PPI is a light mover and would only moderate or amplify the retail sales effect.
-090811.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/8/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -50.6B
Actual: -44.8B
Previous Revision: +1.5B to -51.6B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.11
1st Peak @ 90.21 / 90.00 – 0231 (1 min)
39 ticks
Retrace to 85.01 – 0239 – 0242 (4-9 min)
37 ticks
Notes: Report strongly exceeded forecast, and previous report revised mildly upward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (disappointed at 414K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. Due to offsetting positive and negative reports, the market was indecisive.
-090711.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/7/2011 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL (REPEATED)
Started @ 90.28
1st Peak @ 89.87 – 0808 (8 min)
41 ticks
2nd Peak @ 89.72 – 0824 (24 min)
56 ticks
Notes: Report was underperforming overall showed conflicting weak growth / stagnation, or contraction in all 12 sectors. This caused a less disciplined and chaotic drop with volatile retracement and long wicks / tails. I would not use the JOBB software, wait until seeing the 0801 and 0802 candles with long wicks and place a short order then I would close out in the area around 89.90 on the long red candle at 0808. This is not a methodical fan, but more of a spike.
-090211.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/2/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 74K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:0K
Previous Revision:-32K to 85K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual: 9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK *with premature 50 tick upward spike
Started @ 87.67
1st Peak @ 86.31 – 0231 (1 min)
136 ticks
2nd Peak @ 85.68 – 0307 (37 min)
199 ticks
Reversal to 86.26 – 0315 (45 min)
58 ticks
Notes: Strongly negative report that fell short of the forecast causing a healthy spike downward. However, the market uncharacteristically shot up about 50 ticks 2-3 sec before the report broke. This would have gotten you in long before taking you short to your stop loss. The numerical analysis above is with the removal of the 50 tick pre report spike. I would get in going short again around 0239-0243 and ride it until after the open.
-090211.jpg "Click to enlarge")
-090111.jpg "Click to enlarge")
9/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 48.7
Actual:50.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 89.41
1st Peak @ 90.13 – 0404 (4 min)
72 ticks
Reversal to 89.44 – 0415 (15 min)
69 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded forecast causing a healthy spike, and follow on reversal . Market was stuck flirting with the 200 SMA around the release causing a premature spike up to the 200 SMA, then the tail on the 0401 candle before the large spike upward. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long on the 0400 candle, and absorbed the heat of 10-11 ticks on the 0401 candle before it spiked up. The first candle rose 62 ticks, so it is worth waiting to see what the follow on candles do. With the 2 long wicks on the 0402-0403 candles, I would close out around 90.00.
-083111.jpg "Click to enlarge")
8/11/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 102K
Actual:91K
Previous Revision: -5K to 109k
Spike / retrace
Started @ 88.91
1st Peak @ 88.81 – 0216 (1 min)
10 ticks
Retrace to 89.07 – 0219 (4 min)
26 ticks
Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, and previous report revised slightly downward. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at about 88.91 since the position of the market was 88.76 5 sec before the report broke. The reaction would have been tame going up 2-3 ticks, then back down to 10 ticks of heat. Then the 0217 candle spiked upward to just above the 50 SMA. I would close out on that spike with about 10 ticks of profit at about 89.01.