US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 06.03.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 032011

6/3/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 161K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:54K
Previous Revision:-12K to 232K
Rate Forecast: 9.0%
Rate Actual:9.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK and DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 101.13
1st Peak @ 100.25 – 0231 (1 min)
88 ticks

Final Peak @ 99.67 – 0305 (35 min)
144 ticks

Reversal to 100.34 – 0335 (65 min)
67 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report came in well short of the forecast causing a healthy spike and follow on FAN . Market kept falling until just after the open with the big red candle at 0304. I would close out at the end of the 0231 candle or wait and play the FAN for a few more ticks. You could also close out on the 0231 and then wait until the gap close / reversal and see how it plays out to jump into another short trade if the gap close “falls short”.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 06.03.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 032011

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 06.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 012011

6/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 58.1
Actual:53.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.80
1st Peak @ 103.46 – 0402 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.14 – 0415 (15 min)
66 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 103.76 – 0424 (24 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of forecast causing a healthy down spike, 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Market was engaged in a downward FAN prior to the report so the momentum was aided by the negative report. The first peak hit the S1 line, then after retracement, the market was able to fall to a double bottom at 103.14 at 0414. With the three candles in that area having long tails, that is the departure point.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 05.25.11

Prelim GDP Comments Off

May 252011

5/26/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.2%
Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 100.84
1st Peak@ 100.49 – 0232 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.19 – 0242 (12 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative (0.4% off of the forecast is about the max that is typically seen). Solid 2 candle drop of 35 ticks followed by a 70 tick reversal up to the 100 SMA. During the reversal, the it paused, experiencing some resistance at the 50 SMA but eventually fought through it. I would close out around the PP line at 101.10 at 0246 after seeing 5 candles no longer go above the PP.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 04.28.11

Advance GDP Comments Off

Apr 282011

4/28/2011 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 1.8%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 3.1%
INDECISIVE

Notes: Report was slightly negative, with a small previous downward revision. Normally this should be enough to cause a decisive downward fan, but it was volatile in this case. I would have used the JOBB strategy here, get in short and then let the stop loss work to mitigate the loss going long. Also notice the 0301 candle right after the open was indecisive. This reaction did not follow the routine at all.

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