US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 3.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 112014

3/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 327K
Actual: 320K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009772 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
0831 bar span 0.009771 – 0.009768 (1 min)
3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009764 (just below the 100 SMA) / 0.009754 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009781 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009790 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in strong but close to the forecast with 7K less jobs than the forecast with no other news. This caused a dull 0831 bar of only 3 ticks movement on the OOD and 13 SMA. Cancel the order with no impulse after 20 sec. It eventually drifted a few ticks down to hit the 200 SMA, then bounced for about 10 ticks in 9 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 3.26.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.9%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -1.3%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009750 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009750 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-20 ticks

Reversal to 0.009772 – 0831:05 (2 min)
22 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009776 – 0834 (4 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 0.009766 – 0849 (19 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009758 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009750 (just above the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009782 (just below the OOD/HOD) / 0.009789 (No SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in mixed with the core reading nearly matching the forecast, while the regular reading exceeded the forecast by 1.1%. With the mixed news, this caused a large unsustainable short move of 20 ticks that nearly reached the S2 Pivot and returned to the origin. With the Trap Trade, you would have filled long at 0.009758, but the outer tier would have missed. Then you would have ssen it retreat quickly to give you an immediate 8 ticks of profit. If you were a little patient, you could have captured up to 14 ticks with ease just after the :31 bar expired. After it continued upward for 4 more ticks, it pulled back for 10 ticks to the S1 Pivot in about 15 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.20.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/20/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 4.2
Actual: 9.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 131’30
1st Peak @ 131’24 – 1002 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 132’07 – 1108 (68 min)
15 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’10 – 1150 (110 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of 4.8 pts, causing a short spike on the ZB that started on the 100 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot, then fell to cross the LOD for 6 ticks on the :01 and :02 bars. With JOBB, your order would have short at 131’26 with 2 ticks of slippage, then it would have stayed within 1 tick of your fill for over a minute. Look to exit with 1 tick on the :01 or :02 bar. After the extension of the LOD, it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 66 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot. Then after a brief pullback, it climbed another 3 ticks about 40 min later to the PP Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.19.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/19/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 132’16
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 132’00 – 1400:29 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Reversal to 132’14 – 1402:54 (3 min)
14 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 131’29 – 1418 (18 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 132’07 – 1444 (44 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 132’08 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 132’24 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $55B a month, saying they will continue to monitor the economy and labor sectors while also saying they do not want to be seen as reacting to every gyration in financial markets. The surprise from new Chmn Yellen was that they would look at raising rates in early 2015 when tapering was finished and no longer be bound by the 6% unemployment metric they had previously promised to use. This caused a larger than expected short move that would have been a great trap trade with larger tiers. Your inner long entry would have filled, then after a few sec been stopped as it pushed lower. In hindsight a 2-tier approach with the outer tier at 14 ticks would have been ideal. That would have filled and then with an average entry of 132’05, allowing about 8 ticks to be captured on the reversal on the :03 bar. After chopping for about 10 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, eclipsing the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 10 ticks in the next 26 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 3.19.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 122014

3/19/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.61M
Actual: 5.85M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.54M
Actual: -1.47M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.63M
Actual: -3.10M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 98.90
1st Peak @ 99.03 – 1031 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 98.77 – 1033 (3 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.18 – 1046 (16 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 98.33 – 1130 (60 min)
85 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a near matching modest draw, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible draw was expected. The mixed news caused a relatively dull reaction that would not have filled either side 10 sec past the release, so cancel the order. We saw a small indecisive :31 bar that would have spiked long 13 ticks then retreated late in the :31 bar. Then it reversed 26 ticks to the 200 SMA before rallying for a 2nd peak of 28 ticks in the next 13 min, nearly reaching the HOD. After that it fell for a slow developing large reversal of 85 ticks in 44 min, crossing the PP Pivot and extending the LOD.

NG 04-14 (1 Min) 3.20.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 132014

3/20/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -58B
Actual: -48B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.434 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.356 – 1031 (1 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 4.410 – 1038 (8 min)
54 ticks

Pullback to 4.371 – 1100 (30 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 4.393 – 1105 (35 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large short spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot then touched the LOD for 78 ticks on the :31 bar. It retreated late in the bar leaving 20 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.401 with 23 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to ratchet lower and hit the LOD after 7 sec. Look to exit at about 4.365 with about 35 ticks where it hovered for about 7 sec. After the peak, it reversed for 54 ticks in the next 7 min back to the S2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it pulled back for 39 ticks in 22 min before a quick reversal of 22 ticks around the S2 Pivot.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 11.10.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 102015

11/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 364.75
1st Peak @ 358.00 – 1200:10 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 363.75 – 1202:08 (3 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1206 (6 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 364.50 – 1213 (13 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 356.50 – 1254 (54 min)
33 ticks

Expected Fill: 363.00 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Exit: 358.25 – 19 tics
Recommended Profit Target placement: 358.25 (below the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: As this report is often prone to reverse after a few seconds, note the hovering in the first 16 sec and the inability to breakout below 358.00 and exit quickly or reverse the order.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Apr 182014

3/27/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.11/2.7
Actual: 2.26/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’09 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 134’01 – 1307 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’16 – 1352 (51 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 133’29 – 1630 (209 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.26 rebounded from last month. This caused a quick pop of 4 ticks that remained within 1 tick of breakeven for about 2 min as it crossed the 20/13 SMAs and nearly reached the HOD. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 134’08 with 1 tick of slippage just a few sec after order placement. With the quick spike, move the stop up to -1 tick and the profit target down to 134’10 on the HOD. The stop would have filled after about 45 sec as it reversed for 8 ticks in the next 5 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs and the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 45 min. After that it fell for a slow developing reversal of 19 ticks in 2.5 hrs heading into the session close down to the R1 Pivot.

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 3.26.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 192014

3/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.74M
Actual: 6.62M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.21M
Actual: -5.10M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.35M
Actual: 1.56M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 100.06
1st Peak @ 99.83 – 1030:08 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 100.13 – 1030:41 (1 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 99.70 – 1035 (5 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 100.07 – 1047 (17 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a large draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. The mixed news caused a small short spike that would not have reversed on the back end of the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 99.94 with about 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it give you about 10 ticks and pullback quickly to hover about 3 ticks on either side of the fill point around the 50 SMA. Look to exit with 2-3 ticks because this means a reversal is likely coming. Sure enough, it reversed to touch the HOD 41 sec into the :31 bar. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks, reaching the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA in the next 4 bars. After that it reversed for 37 back to the R1 Pivot in the next 12 min. It continued to swing between the R1 and R1 Mid Pivots, then the swings shifted lower using the trend line as resistance.

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 4.2.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 192014

4/2/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.09M
Actual: -2.38M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.09M
Actual: -1.57M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.10M
Actual: 0.55M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 99.26
1st Peak @ 99.38 – 1030:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 98.97 – 1033 (3 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 99.25 – 1034 (4 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 98.86 – 1038 (8 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 99.26 – 1052 (22 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly larger modest draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a minimal change was expected. The mixed news caused an indecisive reaction with a quick long burst of 12 ticks followed by a reversal that would have stopped you out after 5 sec. Notice on the chart the trend channel that was established before the report and how the long reaction broke out of the trend channel and quickly reversed as it also crossed the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 99.36 with no slippage, then seen it back off and hit the stop with no slippage 5 sec later. If you were fast you might have been able to get out earlier with 8-10 ticks loss. The reversal continued to fall to cross the S1 Pivot and hit the bottom of the trend channel on the :33 bar. then it pulled back to the 50/200 SMAs for 28 ticks, before falling again for 39 ticks 4 min later. It was able to penetrate the lower trend line, but pulled back unable to sustain. It continued to cycle until about 1130 when a decisive long move broke out of the channel.

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