US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

May 182014

5/8/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 71B
Actual: 74B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.689
1st Peak @ 4.620 – 1030:00 (1 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 4.649 – 1033 (3 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.587 – 1108 (38 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 4.607 – 1119 (49 min)
20 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike. The spike started on the 50 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD for 69 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.667 with about 12 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the bottom for about 10 sec. A profit target of anything less than 45 ticks would have filled, otherwise look to exit with about 40 ticks where it hovered. After the hovering, it reversed to the S2 Pivot on the back end of the :31 bar and the next 2 bars, before stepping lower to a final peak of 33 more ticks in the next 35 min. Then it reversed for 20 ticks in the next 11 min and continued to trade sideways.

NG 06-14 (1 Min) 5.15.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

May 182014

5/15/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 99B
Actual: 105B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 4.362
1st Peak @ 4.289 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-73 ticks

Reversal to 4.386 – 1030:05 (1 min)
97 ticks

Continued Reversal to 4.459 – 1032 (2 min)
170 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.509 – 1101 (31 min)
220 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an indecisive reaction with a healthy short move followed by a large long reversal that was sustained. The spike started just above the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed nearly 100 ticks in the next 5 sec to the OOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.322 with about 30 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and reverse to stop you out at about 4.347 with 5 ticks of slippage in the violent swings in the first second. After it settled down, it rose to cross the R2 Pivot on the :32 bar. Then it chopped sideways and continued to climb for another 50 ticks in the next 29 min to reach the R3 Pivot. Then it backed off and traded sideways.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.29.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

May 182014

4/29/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 82.9
Actual: 82.3
Previous revision: +1.6 to 83.9
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.009744
1st Peak @ 0.009747 – 1000:16 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.009740 – 1003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a small margin of 0.6 points. This caused a 3 tick long bump on the :01 bar after 16 sec that was tame, but shortly sustained as it reached the S1 Pivot. With JOBB you should have cancelled the order after 10 sec, or after the move was too small to reach the bracket. It reversed for 7 ticks to be 4 ticks short of the initial position as it crossed the 100 SMA and nearly reached the 200 SMA. Then it rallied for 18 ticks in the next 25 min most likely due to other market dynamics.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

May 182014

4/30/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 203K
Actual: 220K
Previous revision: +18K to 209K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.0009753 (shifted lower due to late bar movement)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009743 – 0815:01 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009752 – 0815:26 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009756 – 0826 (11 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009744 (on the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009733 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009763 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009772 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast by 17k jobs causing a quick short spike of 10 ticks that crossed the OOD, LOD, and S1 Mid Pivot. That would have reached the inner long order with 1 tick to spare. As it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 25 sec and was flirting with the PP Pivot, look to exit with about 7 ticks. After that it continued to trend upward for a few more ticks as it used the PP Pivot for support. Ensure you are out of the trade before 0829 when the Advance GDP report is about to break.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

Advance GDP Comments Off

May 182014

4/30/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to 2.6%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 134’01 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 134’14 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’08 – 0830:47 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 134’20 – 0835 (5 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 134’08 – 0848 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’23 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 133’16 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 134’10 (in between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots) / 134’18 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in strongly disappointing as it fell short by 1.1% of an already anemic forecast. This caused a large long spike of 13 ticks that crossed all 3 Major SMAs, the R1 Mid Pivot and the OOD. This would have filled the inner short tier at 134’10, then allowed an exit near breakeven as it hovered later in the bar between 1 tick of heat and 1 tick of profit. Due to the strong results it would be wise to exit quickly when it fell back to the fill point. After the reversal, it climbed for another 6 ticks for a 2nd peak that reached the R1 Pivot. If you were still open in the trade or left the outer tier pending, it would have filled on the 2nd peak and then allowed for a nice profit on the ensuing reversal of 12 ticks in the next 13 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.30.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

May 192014

4/30/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 134’24
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 134’16 – 1400:13 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’28 – 1402:07 (3 min)
)))12 ticks
————
Pullback to 134’20 – 1411 (11 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 134’31 – 1456 (56 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’17 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 134’08 (just above the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 134’31 (just above the HOD) / 135’07 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $45B a month, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action. This caused a short move of 8 ticks and quick retreat as is typical. Your inner long entry would have filled, then allowed for an exit around 134’24 with 7 ticks in the middle of the SMAs later in the bar. If you were patient and less conservative, an exit at 134’27 just after the open of the :03 bar would have worked for about 10 ticks. After that it pulled back for 8 ticks to the R1 Pivot in 8 min. Then it reversed for 11 ticks in the next 45 min to the HOD.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.1.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 202014

5/1/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 317K
Actual: 344K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009775 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009787 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009778 – 0830:23 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009774 – 0858 (28 Min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009766 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009756 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009785 (just above the PP Pivot/200 SMA) / 0.009795 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in weak with 27K more jobs lost than the forecast with no other significant news. This caused a 12 tick long spike in 1 sec that rose to cross the PP Pivot, 200 SMA, and OOD then quickly backed off for 9 ticks in 21 sec. This would have filled your inner short entry tier, then allowed an exit with about 5-6 ticks quickly on the 100 SMA, or about 8 ticks later. Perfect setup for this trade and easy exit. After the reversal, it traded sideways between the LOD and 100 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 222014

5/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 54.9
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (Fill)
Started @ 0.009777
1st Peak @ 0.009768 – 1000:00 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009785 – 1004 (4 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in modestly better than the forecast, with a reading 0.6 points above the forecast causing a small and shortly sustained bearish reaction followed by a quick reversal. We saw a short spike of 9 ticks on the :01 bar that started just above the 100/50 SMAs then fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD, before reversing. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 009772 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it snap back to hover between 2 and 5 ticks in the red. Look to exit with a 3 tick loss on the dull reaction after recognizing the near matching results and the rebound from hitting the LOD and S1 Mid Pivot. Do not stay in and slowly watch it march to the stop loss and lose an additional 5 ticks for no reason. After the :01 bar, it continued to reverse up to the OOD as it crossed the PP Pivot 3 min later. Then it backed off and achieved an extended reversal of 4 more ticks 15 min later.

ES 06-14 (1 Min) 5.2.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

May 242014

5/2/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 216K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 288K
Previous Revision: +11K to 203K
Rate Forecast: 6.6%
Rate Actual: 6.3%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 1878.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1886.00 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))31 ticks

)))Reversal to 1880.25 – 0830:32 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Pullback to 1884.50 – 0830:56 (1 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Reversal to 1880.25 – 0832:46 (3 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 1883.25 – 0833:29 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1878.00 – 0836 (6 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1884.50 (in between the R1 and R2 Mid Pivots) / 1888.75 (just above the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1871.50 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 1868.25 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strong report with about 70K more jobs added than the forecast, a mild upward revision to the previous report and a strong (but suspicious) drop of 0.3% in the U-3 rate. We shifted to the ES with a Trap Trade approach for this report. This caused an initial spike of 31 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the R2 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD. This would have filled the inner tier short entry with about 5-6 ticks to spare. It would have chopped around the fill point for about 20 sec, then it fell quickly and rebounded allowing an exit for about 16 ticks. If you were not able to capture that, be patient, and wait for it to reverse later in the next 5 min. Sure enough it fell again to the area of the HOD before the report and hovered for about 20 sec at the end of the :33 bar. Then it pulled back for 12 ticks in the next 30 sec before falling to the OOD on the :35 and :36 bars allowing up to 20-25 ticks below the 100 SMA. After that, it continued to swing up and down using the SMAs as the center of gravity.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 242014

5/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 55.2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009797
1st Peak @ 0.009793 – 1008:00 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.009802 – 10007 (7 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Modestly positive report exceeded the forecast by 0.9 points to be nearly matching. This caused a dull short reaction of only 4 ticks at the tail end of a larger short trend in the last 30 min that retreated after only 15 sec. With JOBB, you would have either cancelled with minimal movement at about 10 sec or filled short at about 0.009794 with no slippage. If you were filled, recognize the situation and look to exit no worse than -1 tick. After the 1st bar, it continued to reverse for another 5 ticks in the next 6 min to the 20 SMA.

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