US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.19.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/19/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 316K
Actual: 312K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009821 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar span 0.009821 – 0.009822
)))1 tick
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009812 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009802 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009830 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009840 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 4K more jobs lost than the forecast. This caused no reaction as the :31 bar seemed unfazed and moved only 1 tick. The movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. No significant movement in the next several min either.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.19.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/19/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 14.3
Actual: 17.8
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.009826
1st Bar span: 0.009824 – 0.009827 – 1001 (1 min)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 3.5 pts, causing a dull reaction that strayed only 2 ticks from the origin for the first 45 sec of the :01 bar. Cancel the order with no fill after 10 sec. We did see a delayed long move of 6 ticks, but the news should have caused a short move, so this was a reaction to the dip just before the report.

CL 08-14 (1 Min) 6.18.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 052014

6/18/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.65M
Actual: -0.58M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.11M
Actual: 0.79M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.25M
Actual: 0.44M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 106.17
1st Peak @ 105.81 – 1031:39 (2 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 105.98 – 1033 (3 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.60 – 1037 (7 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 106.06 – 1049 (19 min)
46 ticks

Final Peak @ 105.36 – 1122 (52 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 105.93 – 1212 (102 min)
57 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching negligible draw in inventories, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a near matching negligible gain. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts, but they were in line to cause a slow developing short reaction. This resulted in a 36 tick short spike that fell to cross the HOD over 2 bars. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, your short order would have filled at 106.07 with no slippage then seen it chop around your fill point and the PP Pivot for about 30 sec before it fell to eclipse the LOD. You could be conservative and look to exit near breakeven or with a small profit, but with consistent results to cause a bearish reaction, it would be prudent to wait for the subsequent drop and target the LOD for about 20 ticks. After that it reversed for 17 ticks on the :33 bar, then fell for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 46 ticks to the 50 SMA and OOD in the next 12 min. After that it fell for a final peak of 24 more ticks to reach the S1 Pivot. Then the bulls took over on the reversal of 57 ticks in the next hour that reached the 200 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.25.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jul 082014

6/25/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -1.0%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009956 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))139 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009832 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))-124 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009844 – 0836 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009833 – 0842 (12 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009807 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009797 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009825 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009837 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mostly negative with the core reading falling short of the forecast by 0.4%, and the regular reading falling short of the forecast by 0.9% with mixed revisions. However all of this was overshadowed by the final GDP reading that shocked the markets with a 1.1% miss on a disappointing forecast. Since the Final GDP is the second revision, it usually matches the forecast or deviates by 0.2% at most, so this was an earthquake. With the Trap Trade, you would have seen the long spike fill both your inner and outer long entries, but the stop would have possibly been rejected as it was shifting after the 2nd tier fill. This is a case if left naked in a trade and upside down about 100 ticks, the best play is to wait for it to come back. Since it is a panic induced reaction, it is not sustainable and plenty of traders will look to take advantage of the correction. So it crashed back all but 15 ticks a mere 20 sec later, which would have actually allowed a breakeven exit. After that it calmed down and pulled back for 12 ticks in the next 5 min, then reversed for 11 ticks after 6 min.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.26.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 082014

6/26/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 314K
Actual: 312K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009832 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009837 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009828 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009839 – 0831:42 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009832 – 0836 (6 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009842 – 0846 (16 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009836 – 0905 (35 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009823 (on the OOD) / 0.009813 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009840 (just above the HOD) / 0.009851 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 2K more jobs lost than the forecast. This caused a small long reaction that rose only 5 ticks, then fell 9 ticks immediately. The movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. It continued to chop up and down, but the swings were small and contained.

CL 08-14 (1 Min) 6.25.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 092014

6/25/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.56M
Actual: 1.74M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.49M
Actual: 0.71M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.87M
Actual: 1.18M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 105.80
1st Peak @ 105.73 – 1030:03 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 105.89 – 1030:14 (1 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 105.62 – 1030:49 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 105.86 – 1033 (3 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.47 – 1034 (4 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 106.31 – 1100 (30 min)
84 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts and they were conflicting, but they caused a dull tug of war that did not stray far from the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse cross your bracket until about 26 sec after the report, so cancel the order on the dull move with no fill. It continued to chop as it headed lower to eclipse the LOD and S2 Mid Pivot after 4 min, then reversed and climbed 84 ticks in the next 26 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.26.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 092014

6/26/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.01/2.6
Actual: 2.15/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’00 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 137’03 – 1310 (9 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’30 – 1321 (20 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’04 – 1415 (74 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.15 rebounded from the dip of last month. This caused a 4 tick short move in at :36 sec into the 02 bar as it crossed the 50 SMA and reached the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 137’02 with no slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 3-4 min between breakeven and 2 ticks of profit. Look to exit at 137’01 or 00 for 1-2 ticks. After a reversal of 3 ticks, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to breach the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 6 ticks back to the origin in the next hour.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 6.26.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 102014

6/26/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 101B
Actual: 110B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.565
1st Peak @ 4.485 – 1030:16 (1 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 4.508 – 1032 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.431 – 1035 (5 min)
134 ticks

Reversal to 4.483 – 1042 (12 min)
52 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large short spike that was very stable easy to capture. The spike started above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD on the :31 bar for a total of 80 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.530 with about 25 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall then hover below the S2 Pivot allowing about 40 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 23 ticks in the next bar before falling for a 2nd peak of 64 more ticks on the :35 bar as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 52 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 13 SMA and traded sideways. Of note this is one of the infrequent occasions where trading the reversal on the :33 bar would not have worked out.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 7.3.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 102014

7/3/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 100B
Actual: 100B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.341
1st Peak @ 4.387 – 1030:32 (1 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 4.371 – 1032 (2 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.405 – 1033 (3 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 4.387 – 1034 (4 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.411 – 1047 (17 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 4.356 – 1101 (31 min)
55 ticks

Notes: We saw a matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate long spike that was very stable easy to capture. The spike started just below the 50 / 100 SMAs and rose to cross the PP Pivot and extend the HOD on the :31 bar for a total of 46 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.362 with about 11 ticks of slippage, then seen it back off in the first 10 sec before continuing to climb to reach the PP Pivot and hover for about 20 sec allowing about 20 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next bar before climbing for a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks on the :32 and :33 bars as it neared the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks and chopped between the PP and R1 Mid Pivots in the next 14 min as the final peak snagged abother 6 ticks. Then it reversed for 55 ticks in the next 14 min to reach the 200 / 100 SMAs and OOD.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 142014

7/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 55.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009854
1st Peak @ 0.009864 – 1002:58 (3 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009851 – 1013 (13 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 0.009860 – 1028 (28 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009852 – 1057 (57 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly below the forecast with a deviation of only 0.3 pts. This caused a large, quick, and shortly sustained bullish reaction followed by a quick reversal. We saw a slow developing long spike of only 10 ticks on the :01 – :03 bars that started on the 200 SMA then rose to cross the OOD and the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 009858 with no slippage, then seen it struggle with the OOD and S2 Mid Pivot for about 90 sec. Due to the nearly matching results and the resistance encountered, look to exit at 9860 or 9861 with 2-3 ticks. After the peak was reached, it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 10 min, crossing the S2 Pivot. This would have been a great reversal trade opportunity. After that it pulled back for 9 ticks, and reversed later as it started cycling between the S2 Mid and S2 Pivots.

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