ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016

 Grain Stocks  Comments Off on ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3.31.2016
Apr 232016
 

ZC 05-16 (1 Min) 3_31_2016

3/31/2016 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 362.00
1st Peak @ 353.50 – 1200:59 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 360.75 – 1204 (4 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 353.00 – 1213 (13 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 355.75 – 1219 (19 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 347.75 – 1327 (87 min)
57 ticks

Expected Fill: 360.50 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 353.75 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 354.25 (just below the S3 Pivot)

Notes: Tame short spike offered a no slippage fill and an exit with up to 27 ticks as the :01 bar expired just below the S3 Pivot. Then a nice reversal in 3 min to the 13/20 SMAs followed by a double bottom. After that it trickled lower in about 1.5 hrs to the S4 Pivot.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016

 7y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016
Apr 232016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_30_2016

3/30/2016 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.57/2.3
Actual: 1.61/2.5
DULL FILL…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’07 (1301)
1st Peak @ 163’10 – 1302:29 (1 min)
3 ticks

Final Peak @ 163’28 – 1324 (23 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 1354 (53 min)
24 ticks

Expected Fill: 163’09 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 163’10 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 163’15 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Slow and dull initially. You may have cancelled the orders as it would not have filled the long bracket until 1302:24. If filled, it would have sat on the fill point or 1 tick profit for 2 min before climbing for another 18 ticks in 20 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 30 min to the 200 SMA / S2 Pivot area.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.30.2016
Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_30_2016

3/30/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.30M
Actual: 2.30M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.18M
Actual: -2.51M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.03M
Actual: -1.08M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 39.42
Whipsaw between 39.17 and 39.65 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-15/+23 ticks

1st Peak @ 39.77 – 1030:47 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 39.54 – 1032 (2 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 39.85 – 1033 (3 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 39.28 – 1051 (21 min)
57 ticks

Continued Reversal to 38.36 – 1146 (76 min)
149 ticks

Expected Fill: 39.30 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 39.45 – stopped out for 15 ticks loss with no slippage
Recommended Profit Target placement: 39.10 (just below the 200 SMA)

Notes: Whipsaw in the first second would have only stopped you stopped you out for a 15 tick loss with no slippage. After that it settled down and climbed for 1st and 2nd peak with a reversal in between. Then it fell into a selloff for over an hour to the LOD.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.23.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.23.2016
Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_23_2016

3/23/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.09M
Actual: 9.36M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.48M
Actual: -4.64M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.06M
Actual: 0.92M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 40.58
1st Peak @ 40.22 – 1030:32 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 40.79 – 1032 (2 min)
57 ticks

2nd Peak @ 40.17 – 1039 (9 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 40.58 – 1050 (20 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: 40.46 (short)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 40.23 – 23 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 40.23 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Big draw on the crude caused a nice short spike of 36 ticks to the S2 Pivot offering up to 23 ticks with an easily placed profit target. Then a strong reversal followed by a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks.

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016
Apr 122016
 

CL 05-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.41M
Actual: 1.32M
Gasoline
Forecast: -2.34M
Actual: -0.75M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: -1.14M
DULL FILL
Started @ 39.04
1st Peak @ 39.33 – 1030:00 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 38.99 – 1030:22 (1 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 39.32 – 1030:36 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 38.82 – 1034 (4 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 39.31 – 1045 (15 min)
49 ticks

Expected Fill: 39.19 (long)
Slippage: 5 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 39.19 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 39.36 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Unsustainable long spike reached the HOD then promptly recoiled. It hovered at the fill point for 4 sec before dropping and hovering 9 ticks lower. Either place would have presented an opportunity to exit near the entry or for a smaller loss than a full stop out. Otherwise the stop would have been taken after about 13 sec. After that it oscillated between the HOD and 50 SMA with one excursion to the 100 SMA.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on 6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.24.2016
Apr 102016
 

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_24_2016

3/24/2016 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.2%
Core Actual: -1.0%
Previous revision: -0.1% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -3.0%
Regular Actual: -2.8%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 4.7%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008899
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008908 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008897 – 0833:58 (4 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @0.008917 – 0847 (17 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.008907 – 0859 (6 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:10-12/20-24
Long entries – 0.008888 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.008877 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008910 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 0.008921 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/ OOD)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a.
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Conflicting report caused a quick spike that reversed. Unfortunately the spike was a few ticks too small to breach the inner short tier. Cancel the order on the miss. After a reversal to the S1 Mid Pivot, it rebounded for a 2nd peak to the OOD.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016

 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment  Comments Off on 6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016
Apr 102016
 

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 3_18_2016

3/18/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.1
Actual: 90.0
Previous Revision: +1.0 to 91.7
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008993
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008986 – 1000:47 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008989 – 1000:56 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008984 – 1003 (3 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.08996 – 1010 (10 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008987 (just below the 50/100 SMAs) / 0.008978 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008999 (just above the OOD) / 0.009009 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Movement only strayed 3 ticks from the anchor point/origin up to 40 sec after the release, so cancel the order. Nice reversal after support held below the 50/100 SMAs.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

 FOMC Statement  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016
Apr 042016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016 ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 161’05
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’23 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’07 – 1400:05 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Pullback to 161’24 – 1400:12 (1 min)
)))17 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’12 – 1400:51 (1 min)
)))12 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 162’07 – 1409 (9 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 161’02 – 1446 (46 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 161’27 – 1516 (76 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 160’30 (in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots) / 160’22 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 161’13 (on the 200 SMA) / 161’21 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 161’13 and 161’21 – both short tiers
Best Initial Exit: 161’07 – 16 ticks (if quick) or 161’12 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’07 (on the 50 SMA) – move higher

Notes: Both short tiers would have filled for an average short position of 161’17. Then it stabbed lower offering 16 total ticks for about 3 sec, pulled back to the peak and reversed again to almost the same area offering 8-10 total ticks where it hovered for about 20 sec. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 16 more ticks in 8 min to the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot before a 37 ticks reversal that stepped down to the S1 Pivot / LOD.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016

 CPI  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.16.2016
Apr 032016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3_16_2016ZB 06-16 (Second) 3_16_2016

3/16/2016 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 161’31
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’20 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’25 – 0830:38 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 161’14 – 0833 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 161’23 – 0836 (6 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 161’09 – 0841 (11 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 161’20 – 0902 (32 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 161’25 (just below the 200 SMA) / 161’18 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 162’05 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 162’12 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 161’25 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 161’25 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’27 (just above the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)

Notes: Report caused a mostly decisive short reaction to offer a breakeven exit. The 200 SMA and PP Pivot on top of each other will normally cause a recoil, which did happen but was too short lived. It fell 11 ticks and hovered for 30 sec. You could have moved the outer tier up to 161’21 for a fill as a reversal is likely. Then it reversed 5 ticks and hovered just below the 200 SMA for 22 sec. Look to exit at breakeven or 161’24 for a 1 tick loss (2 tick net profit with the adjusted outer tier fill). Then it stepped lower for a 2nd and final peak.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.15.2016

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 3.15.2016
Apr 032016
 

ZB 06-16 (1 Min)  3_15_2016ZB 06-16 (Second)  3_15_2016

3/15/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: -0.2%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.5% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to -0.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 162’08
1st Peak @ 162’02 – 0830:00 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 162’17 – 0830:36 (1 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 162’09 – 0830:54 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 162’19 – 0908 (38 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 162’03 – 0931 (61 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 162’05 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 162’06 – 1 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 161’30 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: It stabbed lower on the near matching-slightly bullish results with the core reading, but the previous revision was very bearish to give it a conflicting signal. The current reading gets first notice, then the revision, but normally the revision is small or the current reading is strongly biased so the revision is overlooked. So it would have filled short then reversed to a few ticks in the red and hovered.