US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.18.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 092014

9/18/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 312K
Actual: 280K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009194 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009192 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-2 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009196 – 0830:27 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009185 – 0835 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009204 – 0843 (13 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009186 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009176 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009204 (on the 100 SMA) / 0.009213 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 32k offset but was coupled with a weak building permits / housing starts report. This must have created a perfect equilibrium initially as we only saw a 2 tick short move. This would have fallen several ticks short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. It eventually fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after 4 more min (on the claims news), then reversed 19 ticks to the 100 SMA (on the permits/housing data).

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.18.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Oct 092014

9/18/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 22.8
Actual: 22.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (BREAKEVEN EXIT)
Started @ 0.009204
1st Peak @ 0.009198 – 1001 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009205 – 1005 (5 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009195 – 1012 (12 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009215 – 1038 (38 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a delta of only 0.3 pts, causing a short spike of 6 ticks that started just above the 50/200 SMAs and fell to cross the 100 SMA. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at about 0.009200 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have seen it retreat to hover around your fill point. Look to exit at breakeven, as it hovered for most of the :31 bar on the 100 SMA. After a small reversal for 7 ticks, it fell for a 2nd peak to the S2 Pivot for 3 more ticks after 7 min. Then it reversed 20 ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot in 26 min.

NG 10-14 (1 Min) 9.18.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 092014

9/18/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 91B
Actual: 90B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.976
1st Peak @ 3.897 – 1030:00 (1 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 3.952 – 1030:29 (1 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 3.904 – 1053 (23 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 3.938 – 1122 (52 min)
34 ticks

Notes: We saw a near match on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick short spike of 79 ticks that was shortly sustained with minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. It retreated 20 ticks immediately and another 35 ticks after about 30 sec. The spike started near the LOD then fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.934 with about 32 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover after the initial retracement near 3.920 (just below the S2 Pivot) for 7 sec. Look to exit there with about 14 ticks, before the secondary reversal took over. After the reversal climbed to 3.952, it pulled back to 7 ticks short of the 1st peak after 23 min. Then it reversed 34 ticks in the next 29 min.

CL 10-14 (1 Min) 9.17.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 102014

9/17/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.61M
Actual: 3.67M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.26M
Actual: -1.64M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.49M
Actual: 0.28M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.20
1st Peak @ 94.06 – 1030:08 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 94.39 – 1030:27 (1 min)
33 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.90 – 1038 (8 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 94.18 – 1049 (19 min)
28 ticks

Continued Reversal to 94.48 – 1131 (61 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a lesser gain was expected. This caused a small and shortly sustained short move that fell 14 ticks as it started near the LOD. It fell to extend the LOD then backed off and reversed to cross the 13/20 SMAs later in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 94.10 with no slippage, then seen it hover on your fill point for 6 sec. With the conflicting results and failure to launch for a larger reaction, exit quickly. It reversed 33 ticks, then fell for a 2nd peak of 16 more ticks to reach the S1 Mid Pivot after 7 min. Then it reversed 28 ticks in the next 11 min and another 30 ticks in the next 42 min to reach the 200 SMA.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.25.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Oct 132014

9/25/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: -17.7%
Regular Actual: -18.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009161 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009152 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009164 – 0836 (6 min)
)))12 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009169 – 0844 (14 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009149 (on the LOD) / 0.009142 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009171 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.009180 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: For the second straight month we saw a very strange report came in widely bipolar as the Core reading matched the forecast while the broader reading fell short of a dismal forecast by 0.5% after a correction from the surge of plane orders last month. The concurrent unemployment claims report matched the forecast too. This caused a relatively tame short move of only 9 ticks that crossed the S2 Pivot and reversed in the next 5 bars for 12 ticks. This would have been 2-3 ticks short of the inner long entry and did not come near it again, but this is a case where it is safe to move the inner tier up to about 0.009153 or 54 for a fill as it is just below the S2 Pivot and unlikely to fall lower with the support encountered. It reversed slowly, but be patient and look to exit at the 200 SMA or S2 Mid Pivot. It continued to reverse for another 5 ticks in the next 8 min to reach the S1 Pivot. Then it pulled back to the S2 Mid Pivot and reversed to the S1 Pivot again.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 9.25.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Oct 132014

9/25/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.05/2.6
Actual: 2.24/2.5
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 137’24 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’21 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 137’26 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

Pullback to 137’22 – 1322 (21 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 138’00 – 1356 (55 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.24 rose substantially from last month while the bid to cover ratio tapered slightly to 2.5. This caused a dull reaction that fell 3 ticks as it crossed the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have been filled short at 137’22 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-1 ticks as it hovered late in the :02 to early :03 bars. Then it reversed 5 ticks in 4 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs to reach the R2 Pivot. After that it pulled back 4 ticks to the 200 SMA in 17 min, then reversed 10 ticks in the next 34 min to extend the HOD.

CL 11-14 (1 Min) 9.24.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 132014

9/24/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.39M
Actual: -4.27M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.09M
Actual: -0.41M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.59M
Actual: 0.82M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.40
1st Peak @ 91.65 – 1030:49 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 91.44 – 1033 (3 min)
21 ticks

Final Peak @ 92.14 – 1041 (11 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 91.20 – 1107 (37 min)
94 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a lesser draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a lesser gain was expected. This caused a long reaction that saw sizeable retracement due to crossing the 100/200 SMAs and PP Pivot all on top each other. It managed to climb 25 ticks and peak late in the bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled long at about 91.51 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover on your fill point, climb, fall, and rally again late in the bar. This is a case where patience would be good since the larger draw on the crude will drive the reaction and the move was held back by crossing the strong resistance barriers allowing an exit with about 12 ticks. Eventually, it will break free and rally. It would also be wise to buy on a dip, either when it fell back to the SMAs in the :31 bar, or after the reversal on the :33 bar as a 2nd peak is likely. Look for a target of the R1 Mid Pivot or HOD for 40-50 ticks. It climbed 49 more ticks on the 2nd peak to nearly reach the R1 Pivot after 8 min, then reversed strongly for 94 ticks in 26 min, nearly reaching the S1 Mid Pivot.

CL 11-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 132014

10/1/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.70M
Actual: -1.36M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.77M
Actual: -1.84M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.10M
Actual: -2.89M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.91
1st Peak @ 92.34 – 1032:49 (3 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 92.05 – 1046 (16 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 92.96 – 1110 (40 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 91.62 – 1243 (133 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a long reaction that climbed quickly then chopped around the PP Pivot for nearly 3 min while extending the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled long at about 92.04 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 92.28 and 92.16 after the initial volatile period. The PP Pivot or just below would have been a good target for about 20-25 ticks. In the next 20 min, it continued to chop between the PP Pivot and HOD on the high side and the 13 and 50 SMAs on the low side as it reversed 29 ticks after 13 min, then rebounded. It achieved a final peak of 31 more ticks after 24 min to nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 134 ticks, fighting through each SMA in the next 93 min.

CL 11-14 (1 Min) 10.8.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 132014

10/8/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.53M
Actual: 5.02M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.00M
Actual: 1.18M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.07M
Actual: 0.44M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.35
1st Peak @ 87.23 – 1030:00 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 87.51 – 1030:17 (1 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.83 – 1034 (4 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 87.45 – 1049 (19 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest loss was expected. This caused a small short reaction that was briefly sustained as it crossed the 50 SMA. It fell 12 ticks, then reversed 28 ticks to the 100 SMA after only 17 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 87.25 with no slippage, then seen it hover around your fill point for 11 sec before reversing. This is a unique case with all products gaining where we would expect a large short reaction, not a muted shortly sustained move. The safe move here would be to exit between 2 ticks of profit and 5 ticks loss, then look to place a manual short entry after a reversal. It reversed 28 ticks in about 6 sec, then hovered near the 100 SMA for about 25 sec before falling. It achieved a 40 tick 2nd peak in the next 3 min to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it reversed 62 ticks in 15 min back to the 100 SMA. More than likely the selloff of oil in the last hour and since the session open contributed to the reluctance of the market to fall on the supply driven news.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jul 192015

6/30/2015 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – CANCEL SLOW MOVE
Anchor Point @ 401.25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 414.75 – 1200:37 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 407.75 – 1201:50 (2 min)
28 ticks
————
Pullback to 415.75 – 1211 (11 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 412.00 – 1214 (14 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 424.50 – 1244 (44 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 418.00 – 1311 (71 min)
26 ticks

Final Peak @432.25 – 1415 (135 min)
124 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 388.75 (in between the S3 and S3 Mid Pivots) / 385.00 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 413.75 (above the R2 Pivot) / 417.25 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report Reaction differed from previous years June reports which were whipsaws or shortly sustained. We saw a long spike of 54 ticks to breach the R2 Pivot that took 37 sec. Due to the slow approach it would have been wise to cancel, but it still would have worked out. This would have filled the inner short tier at 413.75 with 4 ticks to spare, then reversed 28 ticks in the next min to the R1 Pivot to allow up to 20 or so ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 32 ticks in 9 min before reversing 15 ticks in 3 min to the R2 Pivot and 13 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 39 more ticks in 30 min t to nearly reach the R4 Mid Pivot before reversing 26 ticks in 27 min to cross the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a final peak of 30 more ticks as the session closed. This behaved much more like the January or September report, but still would have been a decent trap trade.

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