US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.8.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Oct 262014

10/8/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (UPWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 140’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 140’09 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 140’06 – 1400:43 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 140’30 – 1555 (115 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 139’30 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 139’25 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 140’08 (on the PP Pivot / 100 SMA) / 140’12 (just below the 200 SMA)

Notes: With tapering down to $15B and perceived 1 more step to end QE3, the minutes revealed that the FED was still accommodative to dovish policy by keeping interest rates low. This caused a slow developing but decisive long move of 6 ticks that started in between the LOD and 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100 SMA / PP Pivot. As the climb was slow developing and stepped up rather than an immediate spike, you may have cancelled the order. If you did not, the inner short order would have filled at 140’08, then allowed 1-2 ticks to be captured on the reversal during the late :01 or :02 bars. With the slow climb, be careful and do not look for the typical larger reversal. After the reversal, it engaged in an upward fan that claimed 21 more ticks in the next 2 hrs as it kept stepping higher on the dovish comments.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.9.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Oct 262014

10/9/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.24/2.7
Actual: 3.07/2.4
DULL REACTION
Started @ 140’21 (1301)
1st Peak @ 140’18 – 1301:55 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 140’22 – 1303 (2 min)
4 ticks

Continued Reversal to 141’06 – 1314 (13 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 140’17 – 1347 (46 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 140’27 – 1357 (56 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest fell strongly from last month, and the demand tapered. This caused the bonds to have a muted reaction initially that fell only 3 ticks to the LOD, then reversed 4 ticks late in the :03 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at 140’18 with no slippage, then seen it back off and at 2 ticks in the red. Look to exit there on the dull reaction with the LOD appearing strong to prevent any downward momentum. In a bizarre delayed reaction, the reversal then continued to climb 16 more ticks in the next 11 min to the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed back to the LOD in the next 33 min. After that it returned to the SMAs and R1 Mid Pivot to trade sideways.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.15.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 272014

10/15/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (UPWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 143’08 (shift to 143’10)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 143’17 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 143’14 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Pullback to 143’28 – 0831:08 (2 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Reversal to 143’21 – 0832 (2 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 148’00 – 0940 (70 min)
150 ticks

Reversal to 144’17 – 1039 (129 min)
111 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 143’05 (on the 100 SMA) / 143’02 (on the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 143’15 (just below the HOD) / 143’18 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with PPI and Empire State Manufacturing, so we used the Trap Trade approach as the odds of a conflicting / indecisive situation are much higher than the opposite. All of the news was negative with core and regular retail sales falling 0.4% and 0.2% short of the forecast. This caused a long move of 7 ticks initially that crossed the HOD and hovered for 19 sec. This would have filled the inner short entry with 2 tick to spare, then hovered between 2 ticks of heat and 1 tick of profit. After seeing the results, look to exit with about 1 tick loss as it is bound to continue climbing. You could also reverse the trade and jump in long as a 2nd peak is a near certainty. It climbed another 11 ticks in the next bar to the R3 Mid Pivot, then reversed 7 ticks. After that it continued to step higher as panic mode took over on the disappointing news to climb 130 more ticks in the next 68 min. Then it collapsed in the next 60 min to give back 111 ticks to the 200 SMA.

NG 11-14 (1 Min) 10.2.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 292014

10/2/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 107B
Actual: 112B
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 4.000
1st Peak @ 3.919 – 1030:31 (1 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 3.942 – 1044 (14 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 3.925 – 1051 (21 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 3.950 – 1109 (39 min)
25 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick short spike of 66 ticks followed by another 15 ticks in the next 30 sec. It started in between the 200 and 100 SMAs then fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. There was minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.967 with about 33 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop on the S2 Mid Pivot for 7 sec before drifting lower. The conservative play would be to exit after seeing the hovering coupled with the S2 Mid Pivot to capture about 25-30 ticks. If you waited, it fell and hovered again around 3.923 for about 20 sec allowing another 15-20 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed for 23 ticks in the next 13 min back to the S2 Mid Pivot and 13 SMA before pulling back 17 ticks in the next 7 min. Then it reversed 25 ticks to the 50 SMA in the next18 min.

NG 11-14 (1 Min) 10.9.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 292014

10/9/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 108B
Actual: 105B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.838
1st Peak @ 3.888 – 1030:04 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 3.861 – 1035 (5 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.941 – 1113 (43 min)
103 ticks

Reversal to 3.877 – 1159 (89 min)
25 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick long spike of 50 ticks that hovered on the PP Pivot before backing off. It started in on the 200 SMA then rose to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD. There was minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.867 with about 19 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop on the PP Pivot for 5 sec before backing off about 15 ticks If you were fast, you could have exited before it fell with about 15 ticks. Otherwise with the minimal internal bar reversal, it would be minimal risk to wait for a rebound and another attempt to cross the PP Pivot. After the double top on the :32 bar, it reversed 30 ticks to the OOD in 4 min, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 53 more ticks in the next 38 min as it crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 64 ticks in the next 46 min to the PP Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.9.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 312014

10/9/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 291K
Actual: 287K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009288 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009278 – 0830:32 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009286 – 0831:28 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009274 – 0835 (5 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009284 – 0838 (8 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009271 – 0846 (16 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009283 – 0900 (30 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009279 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009269 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009298 (just above the 50/100 SMAs) / 0.009306 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in slightly strong with 4k offset. This caused a slow developing short spike of 10 ticks that started on the 200 SMA and fell to just above the R1 Pivot. Since it took a while and peaked right at the same time of the decision to cancel you may or may not have had your inner long entry fill. It would have filled with 1 tick to spare, then reversed 8 ticks into the :32 bar to the 13/ 200 SMAs. Look to exit at 0.009285 where it hovered for about 6 ticks. After that it stepped lower for a 2nd peak then final peak as it crossed the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed to the 50 SMA after 30 min.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.16.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/16/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 286K
Actual: 264K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.009464 – shift to 0.009461
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009447 – 0830:14 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009464 – 0833:32 (4 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009451 – 0837 (7 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009472 – 0849 (19 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009452 (just below the 20 SMA) / 0.009442 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009470 (No SMA /Pivot near) / 0.009481 (just below the HOD)

Notes: Report came in quite strong with 22k offset. This caused a quick short spike of 14 ticks that started below the 200/100 SMAs and fell to match the low from 20 min earlier. This would have filled your inner long entry, then allowed at least 10 ticks to be captured as it reversed to the 100 SMA after 3 min. After that it pulled back 13 ticks, then reversed 21 ticks in the next 12 min to the R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.16.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/16/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 19.9
Actual: 20.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 0.009433
1st Peak @ 0.009447 – 1001:21 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009424 – 1010 (10 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.0094151 – 1023 (23 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 0.009428 – 1025 (25 min)
23 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.009415 – 1048 (48 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 0.8 pts, causing a long spike of 14 ticks that started just above the PP Pivot and rose to nearly reach the 50 SMA. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 0.009438 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it climb slowly into the :02 bar for 14 ticks. This would have allowed up to 8 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 23 ticks in 8 min, crossing the PP Pivot. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 13 min. Then it reversed for 23 ticks in 2 min and another 13 ticks in 23 min to reach the LOD.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.17.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/17/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.04M
Actual: 1.02M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.02M
Actual: 1.02M
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009402
1st Peak @ 0.009393 – 0830:30 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009396 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009383 – 0835 (5 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.009402 – 0843 (13 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 0.009385 – 0855 (25 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009397 – 0900 (30 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report was nearly matching overall with the BLDG Permits falling short by 0.02M and the Housing starts matched the forecast. This caused a 9 tick short move that started just above the 20 SMA then fell to cross the 100 SMA and reach the 200 SMA in 30 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009399 with no slippage on the tame move, then seen it fall to hover between the 100/200 SMAs for an ideal exit of about 4-5 ticks. After a small reversal of only 3 ticks, it fell for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 4 min to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the LOD. Then it reversed 19 ticks back to the origin in 8 min before pulling back 17 ticks in 12 min. After that it reversed 12 ticks to the 50/100 SMAs and chopped sideways.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.17.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/17/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 84.3
Actual: 86.4
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.0009387 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009379 – 0955:13 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009382 – 0955:20 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009376 – 0955:50 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009382 – 0957:08 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009375 – 0959 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.009383 – 1001 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009370 – 1008 (13 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009376 – 1009 (14 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009381 (just below the LOD) / 0.009373 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009394 (just above the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.009400 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in higher than the forecast by 2.1 points causing an 8 tick short spike after 13 sec as it crossed and extended the LOD. After initial support caused a 3 tick retracement, it fell another 3 ticks to the area of the S2 Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry at 0.009381 then trickled lower to hover in the 0.009377 area for nearly 1 min. This wound have been a good opportunity to manually move the outer long entry up about 4 ticks to get in. Then we saw a reversal of 6 ticks to the earlier LOD position. This would have allowed an exit near breakeven with the inner tier and 4-5 ticks with the moved outer tier. Now that the LOD has been shifted and we see a downtrend developing, it continued lower with small reversals for a 2nd peak, using the 13 SMA as resistance.

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