US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.30.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Nov 172014

10/30/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.24/2.5
Actual: 2.02/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’22 (1301)
1st Peak @ 141’18 – 1301:38 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 141’23 – 1305 (4 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 141’13 – 1325 (24 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 141’22 – 1347 (46 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.02 fell substantially from last month while the bid to cover ratio tapered slightly to 2.4. This caused a small short reaction that fell 4 ticks with no barrier near. With JOBB, you would have been filled short at 141’20 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks as it hovered just after the spike. Then it reversed 5 ticks in 3 min back to the 20 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot in 20 min. Then it reversed 9 ticks in 22 min, back to the 100 SMA.

NG 12-14 (1 Min) 10.30.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Nov 182014

10/30/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 83B
Actual: 87B
INDECISIVE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 3.807
1st Second – Whipsaw from @ 3.778 to 3.836 – 1030:00 (1 min)
58 ticks

1st Peak @ 3.835 – 1030:09 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 3.782 – 1033 (3 min)
53 ticks

Pullback to 3.823 – 1042 (12 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 3.792 – 1051 (21 min)
31 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused very volatile premature activity after 54 sec and all the way into the :31 bar. This should have been cause to cancel the order before activating. After the opening second whipsaw spanned 58 ticks, it settled down after 5 sec to achieve a 28 tick peak long to the HOD in the next 4 sec. Then it slowly backed off and trickled lower for a reversal of 53 ticks to nearly reach the PP Pivot. After seeing the opening second whipsaw, note the unstable trend, but also look for opportunities to buy low and sell high as it will swing back and forth a few times. As it hovered for 11 sec around 3.784 on the :33 bar, that would have been a good indication of a bounce coming, so buy and target the area of the SMAs. That would have allowed an easy 30 ticks in 2-3 min to be captured. Also note the behavior as it approached the R1 Mid Pivot on the :41-42 bars and short it there and look for about 20 ticks. Then again a buy on the OOD at 1050 would have been great.

ZC 05-15 (1 Min) 3.10.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Mar 312015

3/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 384.25
1st Peak @ 387.75 – 1200:37 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 386.25 – 1202 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 391.00 – 1208 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 387.00 – 1247 (47 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a slow developing long spike for 14 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and climbed to cross the 100/200 SMAs and reach the S1 Mid Pivot in 37 sec. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, you would have filled long at 385.50 with no slippage. Then it climbed slowly and hovered within 1 tick of the S1 Mid Pivot to allow an easy exit for about 8 ticks. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 1 min to the 200 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in 6 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 16 ticks after a double top to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the 200 SMA.

ZS 01-15 (1 Min) 11.10.2014

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Nov 232014

11/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1043.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1036.00 – 1200:35 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1044.75 – 1203 (3 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1025.50 – 1212 (12 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 1038.00 – 1232 (32 min)
50 ticks

Final Peak @1021.75 – 1334 (94 min)
88 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been unsafe to trade as it shot long 16 ticks, then reversed strongly. As usual, it would have been tame as it hovered below the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 1043.75 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 1041.75 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it fall immediately for 31 ticks to nearly reach the OOD. Then it backed off a few ticks and chopped sideways. A target set at 1037.00 would have filled easily for about 19 ticks. It eventually reversed for 35 ticks in about 90 sec to the area of the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of another 42 ticks after 9 min to reach the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it reversed 50 ticks in 20 min before falling slowly for a final peak of 15 more ticks after about an hour.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.3.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/3/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 59.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008790
1st Peak @ 0.008774 – 1000:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008791 – 1000:56 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008770 – 1012 (12 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.008800 – 1023 (23 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 2.5 pts and matched the high of September. This caused a quick and shortly sustained spike of 16 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the 50 SMA near the origin, then the S3 Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.008783 with 3 ticks of slippage, then look to exit where it hovered for 6 sec just below the S3 Pivot for about 5 ticks. It reversed quickly due to the strong support at the S3 Pivot back to the origin as the :01 bar was expiring. If you look at the price action in the last 2 hrs, you will see at least 4 tests of the S3 Pivot that failed to penetrate. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 11 min, but the S3 Pivot held again, limiting the time spent below the barrier to about 4 min. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 11 min to the 200 SMA. After that it fell again over a longer period to a lower low after about an hour after the report.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.4.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -40.0B
Actual: -43.0B
Previous Revision: +0.1B to -40.0B
DULL REACTION…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008816
1st Peak @ 0.008826 – 0834 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008815 – 0841 (11 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 3.0B to cause a dull spike initially that took 14 sec to reach 3 ticks and 4 min to achieve 10 ticks as it crossed the 200 SMA. The spike started just below the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100 / 200 SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you should have cancelled as the reaction sat idle for more than 10 sec. If you did not cancel, you would have filled long at 0.008819 with no slippage and seen it slowly ascend. With the strong resistance barriers just above and the failure to launch, look ot exit with 1-2 ticks of profit late in the :31 bar or early in the :32 bar. It continued to snag another 4 ticks in the next 2 min, then reversed 11 ticks in the next 7 min.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 214K
Actual: 230K
Previous revision: +12K to 225K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008718 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008710 – 0815:05 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008725 – 0816:24 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008716 – 0820 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008737 – 0825 (10 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008710 (just below the S4 Mid Pivot) / 0.008699 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008726 (just above the 100 SMA / 0.008736 (just above the S3 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 16k above the forecast to cause an 8 tick short move in 5 sec followed by a 15 ticks reversal after a about 80 sec. This would have barely filled your inner long entry if you had it at 0.008710, otherwise it would have just missed. It also hovered below the S4 Mid Pivot for about 30 sec to allow an easy entry by manually moving the tier up by 1-3 ticks. The reversal was typical, going beyond the origin and taking a little over a minute. Look to exit near the 100 SMA for about 14 ticks. After that it reversed 9 ticks to the 20 SMA in 3 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 5 min, crossing the 100/200 SMAs and the S3 Pivot in 5 min. After that it traded sideways around the 200 SMA and S3 Pivot for about 20 min before drifting lower.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 58.2
Actual: 57.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008713
1st Peak @ 0.008724 – 1000:12 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008715 – 1003 (3 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008726 – 1009 (9 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008718 – 1012 (12 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.1 points to cause a long spike of 11 ticks that started on the S4 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.008717 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen slowly climb to reach the SMAs after 12 sec then hover for about 10 sec. Look to exit at 0.008722 where it hovered for about 5 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 9 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of only 2 more ticks after 6 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 3 min to get tangled in the SMAs. After that it traded sideways for 15 min, then trended upward.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 285K
Actual: 278K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008727
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008728 – 0.008724 – 0831 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008718 (in between the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008707 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008735 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008747 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly strong with 7k offset. This caused a muted response with the :31 bar only moving within a 4 tick range overall. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the dull movement and small reaction. It continued to have no impulse until 4 min after the report when the ECB press conference commentary drove the market short.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 290K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008662
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008654 – 0829:54 (0 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008674 – 0832:34 (3 min)
)))20 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008654 – 0844 (14 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008653 (just below the OOD / 100_200 SMAs) / 0.008643 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008670 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008681 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly weak with 8k offset. This caused a premature short spike of 8 ticks that was probably just inside of the inner long entry. It fell to the OOD and 100/200 SMAs then retreated quickly, not allowing a manual shift entry. Since the news caused a long reaction, this was perfect causing a 20 tick reversal in 2.5 min. It had little movement in the first half of the :31 bar so cancel the order. Then it pulled back 20 ticks in 11 min back to the OOD.

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