US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 02-15 (1 Min) 1.8.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 012015

1/8/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -120B
Actual: -131B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.880
1st Peak @ 2.934 – 1030:16 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 2.884 – 1033 (3 min)
50 ticks

Pullback to 2.933 – 1045 (15 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 2.848 – 1105 (35 min)
85 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a long spike of 54 ticks that started on the 13 SMA and crossed the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 2.912 with 22 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 2.928 with 16 ticks as it was chopping near the top for 17 sec. After the spike it reversed 50 ticks back to the 13 SMA in 2 min. Then it pulled back for 50 ticks for nearly a double top before reversing 85 ticks in 20 min to the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot. After that it rallied for the next few hrs.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.13.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 072015

1/13/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.21/3.0
Actual: 1.93/2.6
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 148’07 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 147’27 – 1302:12 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 147’31 – 1304:52 (4 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 148’04 – 1311 (10 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 147’27 – 1314 (13 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 148’22 – 1355 (54 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 148’02 (just below the 100 SMA) / 147’31 (just below the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 148’12 (just above the OOD) / 148’15 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell very strongly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for a large move of 12 ticks to cross the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot. This would have filled both tiers of your long entries for an average long position of 148’00.5. Then it reversed 4 ticks in 2 min to the outer tier position and another 5 ticks in the next 6 min to the 50 SMA. Due to the crossing of the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot and the size of the move, it would be a safe decision to be patient for a reversal to breakeven or a little profit. A quick exit would have yielded a loss of 3 total ticks, but a patient exit would have allowed up to 7 total ticks to be captured. After the reversal it pulled back for a double bottom in 3 min before reversing 27 ticks in 41 min to cross the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.14.2015

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 072015

1/14/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.85/2.8
Actual: 2.43/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 149’31 (1301)
1st Peak @ 149’20 – 1301:48 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 149’29 – 1305 (4 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 149’19 – 1311 (10 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 150’00 – 1346 (45 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell sharply from last month. This caused the bonds to fall 11 ticks at 1:48 then back off after hitting the R2 Pivot. It started just above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100/200 SMAs and reach the R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 149’25 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it briefly show a few ticks of profit before backing off to hover around the fill point. A profit target of 5 ticks or less would have filled immediately, otherwise look to exit at breakeven. After the peak, it reversed 9 ticks in 3 min to the 100 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick to the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 35 min to cross the 100 SMA. After that it trended lower into the session close.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.14.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Feb 072015

1/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -1.0%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 149’06
1st Peak @ 149’22 – 0831:57 (2 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 149’18 – 0833 (3 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 150’10 – 0848 (18 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 149’19 – 0936 (66 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was extremely weak, falling short of the forecasts by 0.9% and 1.1% margins with large downward previous revisions. Import Prices also released at the same time, exceeding the forecast, but was ignored due to the earthquake caused by retail sales. This caused a long spike for 9 ticks immediately that started on the 13 SMA / R1 Pivot and rose to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it slowly climbed another 7 ticks in the next 1.5 min to peak at the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 149’12 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to climb. Given the scenario, be patient and watch how it interacts with the pivots. Up to 10 ticks could have been captured late in the :32 bar. After a small reversal of 4 ticks, it climbed for a final peak of 20 more ticks to the R3 Mid Pivot in the next 15 min. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 48 min to the R2 Pivot and 100 SMA.

ZC 05-15 (1 Min) 3.31.2015

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Apr 012015

3/31/2015 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 398.25
1st Peak @ 385.00 – 1201:24 (1 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 389.25 – 1203 (3 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 380.50 – 1217 (17 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 382.25 – 1221 (21 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 375.50 – 1415 (135 min)
91 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused an expected large reaction that went short. It started just above the R2 Pivot and below the HOD then fell 29 ticks in 1 sec to the S1 Pivot, then another 24 ticks in the next 80 sec as it eclipsed the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 395.50 with 5 ticks of slippage then ride the wave and look to exit where it hovered for up to 40 ticks. You could have also stayed in and held on for the long term as this report typically turns into a fan. After a 17 tick reversal in 2 min to nearly reach the S2 Mid Pivot, it fell for a 2nd peak of 18 more ticks in 14 min as it reached the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA before falling for 20 more ticks into the session close. This would have allowed up to 80 ticks to be captured with patience. As the 376 area started holding firm, look to exit there.

ZS 03-15 (1 Min) 1.12.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Feb 102015

1/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1036.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1033.50 – 1200:37 (1 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 1041.00 – 1200:50 (1 min)
30 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. This was not a good idea to trade this report as it was combined with the quarterly Grain Stocks report that yielded a much larger and unstable reaction. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 1035.25 with no slippage. Then you would have seen it chop and eventually stop you out after 5 sec for a 15 tick loss.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.21.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/21/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EST)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.06M
Actual: 1.03M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.05M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.04M
Actual: 1.09M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.04M
DULL FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Started @ 0.008527
1st Peak @ 0.008521 – 0830:04 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008531 – 0830:35 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008517 – 0840 (10 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008535 – 0900 (30 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report was conflicting with the BLDG Permits falling short of the forecast by 0.03M and the Housing starts exceeding the forecast by 0.05M. This caused a short move of 6 ticks to the 50 SMA / R3 Pivot in 4 sec that backed off to hover. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 0.008524 with no slippage. It backed off and hovered about 1-2 ticks in the red so look to exit there with the conflicting data. After 3 min, it fell again for a minor 2nd peak of 4 more ticks to the 100 SMA. Then it reversed 18 ticks in 20 min to the HOD.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.22.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/22/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 301K
Actual: 307K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008494 (shift to 0.008497)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008520 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008500 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008488 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008477 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008507 (on the 100 SMA) / 0.008517 (just below the HOD)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 6k offset. This caused a perfect setup for the Trap Trade with a long move of 23 ticks in 7 sec that quickly collapsed after 8 more sec. This would have filled your inner and outer short entries with 3 ticks to spare, then allowed 20 total ticks to be captured where it hovered for over 1 min on the 200 SMA. It continued to trade in a narrow range just below the 200 SMA until the ECB Press conference caused chaos at 0841.

NG 02-15 (1 Min) 1.22.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/15/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -224B
Actual: -236B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.288
1st Peak @ 3.259 – 1029:59 (0 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 3.341 – 1030:00 (1 min)
82 ticks

Pullback to 3.294 – 1032 (2 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 2.352 – 1033 (3 min)
85 ticks

Pullback to 3.271 – 1038 (8 min)
81 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your setup should have failed to setup as the market was too unstable at 10:29:59. If that did not happen, you could have been filled long or short at and stopped immediately on the whipsaw for up to 40 ticks loss. It kept swinging between the HOD and 3.270 area for about an hour until eventually pushing lower at 1128.

NG 02-15 (1 Min) 1.22.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/22/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -231B
Actual: -216B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.899
1st Peak @ 2.823 – 1030:25 (1 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 2.842 – 1030:39 (1 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.814 – 1033 (3 min)
85 ticks

Reversal to 2.845 – 1035 (5 min)
31 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.803 – 1109 (39 min)
96 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large short move. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.875 with 14 ticks of slippage. It continued to trickle lower then hover near the bottom of the bar to allow 40-45 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 19 ticks late in the :31 bar before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks. Then it reversed 31 ticks in 2 min before slowly falling for a final peak of 11 additional ticks in 34 min.

Older Entries Newer Entries