US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 03-15 (1 Min) 1.29.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Feb 152015

1/29/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -113B
Actual: -94B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.854
1st Peak @ 2.729 – 1031:36 (2 min)
125 ticks

Reversal to 2.753 – 1036 (6 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.680 – 1056 (26 min)
174 ticks

Reversal to 2.705 – 1107 (37 min)
25 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large short move that was slow developing. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.816 with 28 ticks of slippage. It continued to trickle lower then hover near the S2 Pivot early in the :32 bar to allow up to 80 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 24 ticks in 4 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 49 more ticks in 20 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 25 ticks in 11 min after crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.28.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Feb 162015

1/28/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NOT FILL
Anchor Point @ 150’06
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 150’03 – 1400:14 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 150’08 – 1400:28 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Pullback to 149’31 – 1402:01 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 150’21 – 1408 (8 min)
22 ticks

Continued Reversal to 151’18 – 1518 (68 min)
51 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 149’28 (just below the PP Pivot) / 149’19 (just above the OOD)
Short entries – 150’11 (just above the HOD) / 150’18 (above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: In the aftermath of the end of QE3, the FED chose to take a patient approach to hawkish moves and wait to let the economy continue to recover. This caused an initial dull reaction that fell 3 ticks, then reversed 5 ticks followed by a pullback of 9 ticks. In all it was slow developing and only strayed 7 ticks from the origin after 2 min. Cancel the order after 20 sec with no fill to be safe. After the short move on the :03 bar, it reversed 22 ticks in 5 min to cross the R1 Pivot, then continued to step higher for another 29 ticks in the next hour to cross the R2 Pivot.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.29.2015

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 162015

1/29/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.96/2.6
Actual: 1.59/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 150’16 (1301)
1st Peak @ 150’12 – 1301:41 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 150’22 – 1311 (10 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 149’29 – 1350 (49 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 150’17 – 1456 (115 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.59 fell from last month while the bid to cover ratio tapered slightly to 2.5. This caused the bonds to fall 4 ticks after starting on the 100 SMA and crossing the 50 SMA to reach the LOD. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 150’14 with no slippage. With the LOD holding and unlikely to yield, look to exit at 150’13 with 1 tick where it hovered late in the :02 bar to early in the :03 bar. After about 1.5 min, it reversed 10 ticks in 9 min to the PP Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 15 more ticks to the S1 Pivot in 39 min. Then it reversed 20 ticks in about an hour to cross the 200 SMA.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 1.30.2015

Advance GDP Comments Off

Feb 162015

1/30/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.0%
Actual: 2.6%
Previous Revision: +1.5% to 5.0%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 150’30 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 151’04 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 150’26 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Pullback to 151’09 – 0830:45 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 151’01 – 0831:24 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 150’28 – 0835 (5 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 151’15 – 0914 (44 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 151’01 – 0945 (75 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 150’20 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 151’08 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately weak falling short of the forecast by 0.4%. This caused small swings up and down until about 20 sec into the bar when it approached the short entry at 151’08. It would have filled right about the time you would have considered cancelling, then it backed off nicely to allow 5-6 ticks to be captured on the first instance of hovering, and would have allowed another 5-6 ticks near the 100 SMA after 5 min. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 39 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 15 ticks to nearly reach the 200 SMA in 31 min.

CL 02-15 (1 Min) 1.22.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 222015

1/22/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.62M
Actual: 10.07M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.30M
Actual: 0.59M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.25M
Actual: -3.27M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 47.02
1st Peak @ 46.35 – 1101:36 (1 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 46.66 – 1105 (5 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 46.08 – 1108 (8 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 46.63 – 1127 (27 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Very strong gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected. With the collective news mostly supply sided, this caused a decisive short move of 67 ticks in about 1.5 min that started on the descending 13 SMA and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 46.87 with 5 ticks of slippage. It kept descending without much hovering until reaching the area of the S2 Pivot. This would have allowed up to 50 ticks to be captured. After a 31 tick reversal in 3 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 27 more ticks in 3 min to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 55 ticks in 19 min.

CL 03-15 (1 Min) 1.28.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 232015

1/28/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 4.08M
Actual: 8.87M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.32M
Actual: -2.59M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.70M
Actual: -3.89M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 44.73
1st Peak @ 44.84 – 1030:00 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 44.52 – 1030:05 (1 min)
-32 ticks

Pullback to 45.14 – 1031:14 (2 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 44.75 – 1034 (4 min)
39 ticks

2nd Peak @ 45.49 – 1042 (12 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 45.00 – 1049 (19 min)
49 ticks

Final Peak @ 45.70 – 1111 (41 min)
97 ticks

Reversal to 44.85 – 1201 (91 min)
85 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected. This caused a whipsaw initially as the price climbed 11 ticks in the first second then fell 32 ticks in the next 4 sec due to the products losses offsetting the crude gain. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 44.84 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been stopped out to the tick for 15 ticks loss in 2 sec at 44.69. After the quick reversal, it pulled back 62 ticks in a little over a minute to the 100 SMA. Then it reversed 39 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 65 more ticks in 8 min, eclipsing the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 49 ticks in 7 min to the 100 SMA before climbing for a Final Peak of 21 more ticks in 22 min. Then it reversed 85 ticks in 50 min to the S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.2.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 012015

2/2/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.9
Actual: 53.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008512
1st Peak @ 0.008528 – 1002:03 (3 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008524 – 1004 (4 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008539 – 1012 (12 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.008517 – 1108 (68 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a deviation of 1.4 pts. This caused an initial long spike of 8 ticks that started on the PP Pivot and reached the R1 Mid Pivot immediately. It climbed another 8 ticks to peak just after the start of the :03 bar nearly to the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008518 with 2 ticks of slippage. Since it slowly climbed to the peak and did not hover much, patience would have been ok to secure up to 9 ticks. After a minimal 4 tick reversal, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 8 min to the R2 Mid Pivot / OOD. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 56 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and fell short of the 200 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.4.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 022015

2/4/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 224K
Actual: 213K
Previous revision: +12K to 253K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008515 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008520 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008510 – 0817:58 (3 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008518 – 0822 (7 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008503 – 0838 (23 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 0.008518 – 0911 (56 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008506 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008497 (below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008523 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008534 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in 12k above the forecast to cause a quick and small 5 tick long spike to the 200 / 50 SMAs followed by a reversal of 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the PP Pivot / OOD. This would have missed the inner short entry by 3 ticks and not provided a manual entry opportunity. It fell back to the area of the origin quickly then took about 2.5 min to fall another 5 ticks. Then it pulled back 8 ticks in 7 min to the 100 SMA before reversing 15 ticks in 16 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it pulled back 15 ticks in 33 min to cross the 200 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.4.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 022015

2/4/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.6
Actual: 56.7
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008518
1st Peak @ 0.008511 – 1000:04 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008520 – 1008 (8 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with only 0.1 pts offset. This caused a 7 tick short spike that started just above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the PP Pivot / 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008514 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it chop around the fill point before settling down to hover after 25 sec to allow 1 tick to be captured. After the spike, it reversed 9 ticks in 7 min to nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it continued to chop between the PP and R1 Pivots for about 45 min and drifted lower.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 1.27.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Mar 022015

1/27/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.8%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual: -3.4%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.9%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008501 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008496 – 0831:18 (2 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008511 – 0831:28 (2 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008503 – 0831:39 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008527 – 0919 (49 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008492 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot) / 0.008481 (just above the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008509 (just above the R3 Pivot) / 0.008521 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Bearish report caused an initial short move that was delayed about 1 min for only 5 ticks to the 50 SMA, then a reversal shortly after for 15 ticks that crossed the R3 Pivot and retreated 8 ticks. This would have provided only dull movement for the :31 bar, so cancel the order on the slow reaction. After the initial volatility, it reversed 24 ticks in 47 min to step higher and eclipse the R4 Mid Pivot.

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