US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04-15 (1 Min) 2.25.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 292015

2/25/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.98M
Actual: 8.43M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.47M
Actual: -3.12M
Distillates
Forecast: -3.05M
Actual: -2.71M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 48.94
1st Peak @ 49.14 – 1030:00 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 48.43 – 1030:23 (1 min)
71 ticks

Pullback to 49.19 – 1033 (3 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 48.92 – 1034 (4 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 49.45 – 1039 (9 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 49.10 – 1042 (12 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a near matching moderate draw. This caused a small long spike of 20 ticks that started just below the 13 SMA and climbed to cross the 50 SMA in 1 sec, then promptly reversed for 71 ticks in the next 22 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 49.06 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out 3 sec later at 48.91 for a 15 ticks loss with no slippage. After the reversal, it pulled back 76 ticks in the next 2 min to the OOD. Then it reversed 27 ticks to o cross the 20 SMA in 1 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 31 more ticks to eclipse the 200 SMA in 5 min. Then it reversed 35 ticks in 3 min to the 50 SMA.

CL 04-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 292015

3/4/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 4.16M
Actual: 10.30M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.87M
Actual: 0.05M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.69M
Actual: -1.72M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 50.54
1st Peak @ 49.88 – 1030:12 (1 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 50.19 – 1030:45 (1 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 49.75 – 1038 (8 min)
79 ticks

Reversal to 50.17 – 1044 (14 min)
42 ticks

Final Peak @ 49.60 – 1112 (42 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 50.00 – 1139 (69 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a moderate draw was expected. This caused a large short spike that started on the 50 SMA and fell for a total of 66 ticks in 12 sec as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 50.38 with 6 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it chop/ hover around the S1 Mid Pivot. Look to exit there with about 40 ticks. After that it reversed 31 ticks in the next 33 sec to the PP Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in 7 min. Then it reversed 42 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA before falling for a final peak of 15 more ticks in 28 min as it eclipsed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 40 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in 27 min.

CL 04-15 (1 Min) 3.11.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 292015

3/11/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 4.44M
Actual: 4.51M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.69M
Actual: -0.19M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.57M
Actual: 2.53M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 48.10
1st Peak @ 47.55 – 1030:00 (1 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 48.06 – 1033 (3 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 47.33 – 1041 (11 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 47.80 – 1105 (35 min)
47 ticks

Continued Reversal to 48.02 – 1134 (64 min)
69 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventories when a slightly lower gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a moderate draw was expected. With all results consistently supply sided, this caused a large but unsustainable short spike that started on the 20 SMA and fell for a total of 55 ticks in 1 sec as it reached the S2 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 47.95 with 5 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it bounce off of the S2 Mid Pivot then chop/ hover around the S1 Pivot. A target placed within 10 ticks under the S1 Pivot would have filled to give you about 20 or more ticks. After that it reversed 51 ticks in the next 2 min to the 13 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks in 8 min. Then it reversed 47 ticks in 24 min to the 50 SMA and another 22 ticks in 39 more min to cross the 100 SMA and S1 Pivot.

CL 05-15 (1 Min) 3.18.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 292015

3/18/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 3.75M
Actual: 9.62M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.88M
Actual: -4.47M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.08M
Actual: 0.38M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 44.56
1st Peak @ 44.94 – 1030:00 (1 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 44.04 – 1031:12 (2 min)
90 ticks

Pullback to 44.68 – 1049 (19 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 44.14 – 1104 (34 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest draw was expected. This caused an initial long spike of 48 ticks that started just below the S1 Pivot and climbed to cross the S1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD immediately, then reverse just after that. It rose on the big draw on gas before reversing course on the crude figures. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 44.75 with 9 ticks of slippage. A programmed profit target of anything less that about 18-20 ticks would have filled, otherwise you would have seen the profit ebb away then hit your stop loss after 11 sec with no intervention. If your profit target was missed or you did not use one, be sure to exit as you see it backing off to hedge. It reversed for a total of 90 ticks in about 72 sec all the way to the LOD. Then it pulled back 64 ticks to eclipse the S1 Pivot in 17 min before reversing 54 ticks to cross all 3 Major Pivots and the S2 Mid Pivot in 15 min. As usual when a report is initially indecisive, you can count on it to be a roller coaster for about an hour or so. Take advantage of that and buy the lows / sell the highs.

NG 04-15 (1 Min) 3.5.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 292015

3/5/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -224B
Actual: -228B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.811
1st Peak @ 2.770 – 1030:14 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 2.792 – 1030:43 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.765 – 1034 (4 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 2.845 – 1055 (25 min)
80 ticks

Pullback to 2.797 – 1120 (50 min)
48 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a moderate short move that fell to cross the R1 Mid Pivot, OOD, and all 3 Major SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.798 with about 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to fall until it hovered around 2.775 for 7 sec. Look to exit there with about 20-25 ticks. After the hovering it reversed 22 ticks in about 30 sec to cross the 50 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 3 min. Then it reversed 80 ticks to cross the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD in 21 min before pulling back 48 ticks in 25 min to the 100 SMA.

NG 04-15 (1 Min) 3.12.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 292015

3/12/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -189B
Actual: -198B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.848
1st Peak @ 2.864 – 1030:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 2.823 – 1030:02 (1 min)
-41 ticks

Pullback to 2.862 – 1033 (3 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 2.801 – 1039 (9 min)
61 ticks

Pullback to 2.832 – 1050 (20 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 2.793 – 1103 (33 min)
39 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an indecisive reaction. It started with a small long move that rose to eclipse the HOD and quickly reversed to cross the OOD / 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled around 2.861 with about 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it reverse and stop you out 2 sec later at about 2.831 with 10 ticks of slippage. After it chopped up and down through most of the :31 bar, it pulled back 39 ticks for nearly a double top in 2 min before reversing 61 ticks in 6 min. Then it pulled back 31 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA / OOD before reversing 39 ticks.

NG 04-15 (1 Min) 3.19.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 292015

3/19/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -50B
Actual: -45B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.846
1st Peak @ 2.792 – 1030:13 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 2.811 – 1033 (3 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 2.795 – 1047 (17 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 2.823 – 1055 (25 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.789 – 1100 (30 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 2.819 – 1114 (44 min)
30 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.844 – 1140 (70 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 2.806 – 1200 (90 min)
38 ticks

Notes: We saw a smaller draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short move that fell to cross the 50 SMA, S1 Pivot, and extend the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.828 with about 18 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to fall until it hovered around 2.795 for 13 sec. Look to exit there with about 30-35 ticks. After the hovering it reversed 19 ticks in the next 2 min before pulling back for 16 ticks in 14 min. Then it reversed 28 ticks in 8 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of only 3 ticks in the next 5 min. After that it reversed 30 ticks in 14 min, another 25 ticks in 26 min to the S1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA before pulling back 38 ticks in 20 min to the S1 Pivot.

ES 03-15 (1 Min) 3.6.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 312015

3/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 240K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 295K
Previous Revision: -18K to 239K
Rate Forecast: 5.6%
Rate Actual: 5.5%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (DOWNWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 2099.75 (on the OOD)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span – 2100.00 to 2101.25 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
1st Peak @ 2103.50 – 0832:09 (3 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 2097.00 – 0832:30 (3 min)
26 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2086.00 – 0928 (58 min)
70 ticks

Pullback to 2094.25 – 1002 (92 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2093.75 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 2089.50 (just above the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 2106.00 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 2109.00 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Strong report with 55K more jobs added than the forecast, a moderate downward revision to the previous report along with a 0.1% drop in the U-3 rate of 0.1% to 5.5%. We saw almost no reaction on the :31 bar which is very odd with the strong results. It almost appears that the report was released 2 min late, but other markets reacted at the normal time. This would have been an easy cancel on the ES. On the :33 bar, it spiked long 15 ticks in 9 sec to the HOD before reversing 26 ticks in 21 sec to the LOD. Then it ended up falling in a downward fan for a total of 70 ticks from the origin in about an hour as it crossed the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 33 ticks in 34 min to the S1 Pivot.

ZC 03-15 (1 Min) 12.10.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jan 032015

12/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 392.75
1st Peak @ 395.25 – 1200:04 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 390.50 – 1200:22 (1 min)
19 ticks

Pullback to 395.00 – 1203 (3 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 389.25 – 1212 (12 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 394.50 – 1307 (67 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long move of only 10 ticks in 4 sec that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the OOD while nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot. After hovering for 4 sec it reversed 19 ticks in 14 sec to cross the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 394.00 with no slippage, then seen it put 5 ticks on the board, hover between 3 and 5 ticks then reverse. As this is common, a quick exit would have been prudent for a handful of ticks. If you did not exit, you would have seen 12 ticks of heat as it reversed, but it pulled back quickly to chop sideways a few ticks in the red. It continued to climb until nearly achieving a double top on the :03 bar allowing an exit between 4 ticks loss and 4 ticks profit. Then it reversed 23 ticks in the next 9 min to the S2 Mid Pivot before pulling back 21 ticks in 55 min to the OOD.

ZS 05-15 (1 Min) 3.10.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Mar 312015

3/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 986.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 988.50 – 1200:33 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 984.50 – 1204 (4 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 990.00 – 1208 (8 min)
22 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been choppy and marginally safe if you exited quickly before it reversed. This time the alternate approach yielded a dull fill as the setup was about 1 sec early in hindsight. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 988.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it back off and hover for about 20 sec just above the old LOD position. before it slowly fell more. Look to exit as it is walking away with about 3-5 ticks. If you let it ride, it would have come within 1 tick of the stop loss, then pulled back to allow a negligible loss on the :03 or :04 bars. It eventually pulled back to cross the 100 SMA to allow an exit for up to 8 ticks, but that was 7 min later. It continued to oscillate between the 200 SMA and just below the S1 Pivot for the next hour or so. We will keep an eye on the trend to see if this reaction is an anomaly or if a change of approach is needed.

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