US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.12.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 012015

3/12/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -1.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 159’31
Wrong Direction spike to 159’27 – 0830:01 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 160’26 – 0830:51 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 160’15 – 0833 (3 min)
11 ticks

Continued Reversal to 160’09 – 0906 (36 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 160’25 – 0925 (55 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 159’30 – 1011 (101 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report was extremely weak for a second straight month. After seeing the retail results trending to overshadow the claims lately when double booked, we shifted to the bracket approach which would have also fared better last month. Well, manipulation came into play here similar to the NFP as we saw a 4 tick short move followed by whipsaw conditions for 2 sec, then a nice long spike for 27 ticks to the R2 Pivot which is excessively large for this report. The claims offset the report and may have been responsible for the opening indecision. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 159’27 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been immediately stopped out with a 5 tick loss (including 1 tick of slippage). The tight stop would have been useful here for protection. With such an oversized spike, you can expect a good reversal. We saw a 11 tick drop in the next 2 min to the R2 Mid Pivot, then another 6 ticks in the next 33 min to the 200 SMA. Then it pulled back 16 ticks for nearly a double top in 19 min before reversing 27 ticks to the origin in 46 min. So even with the loss on the initial trade, it was a good scenario to trade a reversal and more than make up for the loss.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.11.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Apr 012015

3/11/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.00/2.6
Actual: 2.14/2.7
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 158’22 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 158’30 – 1304:28 (4 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 158’25 – 1307:50 (7 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 159’23 – 1332 (31 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 159’17 – 1350 (49 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 158’18 (match the low from 1251) / 158’14 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 158’26 or 27 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 158’29 or 30 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio ticked up. This caused the ZB to pop long for 4 ticks to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and all 3 Major SMAs. If you had placed your short entry at 158’26 it would have barely filled, otherwise it would have missed. Then if filled it would have allowed 1 tick of profit to be taken where it hovered just after the fill for over 30 sec. After that it peaked at 8 ticks after 4 min before reversing 5 ticks in 3 min to the 13 SMA. Then it climbed for a final peak of 25 more ticks in 24 min after crossing the R2 Pivot. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 18 min to the R2 Pivot and traded sideways.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 11.10.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Nov 222014

11/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 372.00
1st Peak @ 378.75 – 1200:34 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 367.50 – 1202 (2 min)
45 ticks

Pullback to 375.00 – 1206 (6 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 366.25 – 1211 (11 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 374.25 – 1231 (31 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long move of 27 ticks after 3 failed attempts to penetrate the R3 Mid Pivot. It started just above the 13 SMA and rose to reach the R3 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 373.25 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it quickly rise to test the R3 Mid Pivot, then back off and test it 2 more times. As it hovered each time and presented multiple opportunities to exit there, look to cover at 377.75 or higher for at least 18 ticks. After that it reversed strongly for 45 ticks in a little over a minute to the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back to the R2 pivot for 30 ticks after 4 min. After that it reversed 35 ticks in 5 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 32 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot in 20 min and settled down to trade near the SMAs.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.18.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Apr 032015

3/18/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (UPWARD FAN)
Anchor Point @ 161’14
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 161’24 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Whipsaw between 161’10 – 161’24 – 1400:09 (1 min)

)))2nd Peak @ 162’00 – 1400:11 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 161’09 – 1402:08 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 163’30 – 1514 (74 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 163’17 – 1531 (91 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 161’07 (just below the PP Pivot) / 160’29 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 161’22 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 161’30 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: As intel was trying to be gathered on when the FED might raise interest rates, the FED removed the word “patient” from its statement, but would not become impatient to tighten fiscal policy. This caused initial instability followed by a large rally on the bonds. This would have filled the inner short entry with about 2 ticks to spare initially then chopped between breakeven and 12 ticks of profit before ascending to hit the outer short tier with 2 ticks to spare after 11 sec. Then it would have fallen in the next 2 min for a total of 23 ticks but look to exit where it first hovered just below the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot at about 161’15 for 22 total ticks. After the reversal it rallied into an upward fan for a total of 62 more ticks in 71 min after eclipsing the R4 Pivot. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 17 min and traded sideways.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.17.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Apr 042015

3/17/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.07M
Actual: 1.09M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.06M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.05M
Actual: 0.90M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.08M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008260
1st Peak @ 0.008267 – 0830:11 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008261 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008257 – 0859 (29 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly conflicting with the BLDG Permits narrowly exceeding the forecast by 0.02M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.15M. This caused a long move of 7 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and crossed the R1 Pivot while extending the HOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008264 with 1 tick of slippage. It peaked, then hovered within 2 ticks of the top for almost 30 sec to allow an exit with about 2 ticks. Then it reversed 6 ticks in 1 min and another 4 ticks in the next 27 min to the R1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.19.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 042015

3/19/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 295K
Actual: 291K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008282
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008285 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008277 – 0831:14 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008273 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008262 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008292 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008301 (just above the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report came in narrowly better than expected with 4k offset. This caused a quick and unsustainable long bump of 3 ticks that would have nearly reached the 13 SMA, then fallen 8 ticks in the next min to the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner tiers, so cancel the order.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.19.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Apr 042015

Caption for 3/19:
3/19/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 7.2
Actual: 5.0
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008287
1st Peak @ 0.008290 – 1000:12 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008279 – 1004 (4 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008293 – 1018 (18 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008285 – 1041 (41 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell narrowly short of the forecast with a delta of only 2.2 pts, causing a slow developing long spike of 3 ticks that took 12 sec to peak on the 200 SMA. With the results, the 200 SMA and only 2 ticks movement after 10 sec, cancel the order. Otherwise you would have been filled long at 0.008290 then seen it hover 1-2 ticks in the red before reversing further. It fell 11 ticks in 4 min to cross the 50/100 SMA then ascended for a 2nd peak of only 3 more ticks to eclipse the PP Pivot in 14 min. Then it fell 8 ticks in 23 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.26.2015

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Apr 052015

3/26/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.83/2.4
Actual: 1.79/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’04 (1301)
1st Peak @ 162’28 – 1301:47 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 163’00 – 1304 (3 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 162’14 – 1406 (65 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 162’30 – 1425 (84 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.79 fell from last month while the bid to cover ratio tapered slightly to 2.3. This caused the bonds to fall 8 ticks after starting in between the 13 and 20 SMAs and falling to eclipse the LOD. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 163’01 with 1 tick of slippage. Look to exit at 162’29 with 4 ticks where it hovered late in the :02 bar through the :03 bar. After hovering, it reversed 4 ticks in 2 min. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 14 more ticks in the next hour before reversing 16 ticks in 19 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.24.2015

CPI Comments Off

Apr 072015

Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008388
1st Peak @ 0.008364 – 0832:40 (3 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.008396 – 0847 (17 min)
32 ticks

Pullback to 0.008361 – 0949 (79 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 0.008368 – 0953 (83 min)
7 ticks

Notes: The core reading exceeded the forecast by 0.1% while the broader reading matched the forecast. This caused a 24 tick short spike that started just above the 13 SMA and fell to reach the R1 Mid Pivot after more than 2.5 min. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.008380 with 4 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it slowly fall and steadily drop after the initial retracement at 10 sec. A patient exit would have secured up to 16 ticks as opposed to a quicker exit with only 5-6 ticks. After the spike, it reversed 32 ticks in 14 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 35 ticks in the next hour to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and reach the OOD.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 3.25.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Apr 082015

3/25/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: -1.4%
Previous Revision: -0.8% to 2.0%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.008381 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008414 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))33 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008383 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))-31 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008392 – 0830:37 (1 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Continued Pullback to 0.009395 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008382 – 0845 (15 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008371 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008361 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008391 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.008400 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Solidly bearish report caused an abnormal large whipsaw that greatly exceeded the threshold of the range of expectation. We saw a 33 tick long spike to the R2 Mid Pivot that collapsed as quickly as it started. This would have filled both tiers and stopped you out with a total loss of about 25 ticks. After the collapse, it pulled back 9 ticks in 30 sec, then another 3 ticks in the next 3 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 11 min to the 50 SMA. This report was already a risk 3 due to other antics, so this comes a little less surprising.

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