US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.25.2015

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 052015

6/25/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.82/2.4
Actual: 2.15/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 149’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 149’12 – 1301:49 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 149’08 – 1305 (3 min)
4 ticks

Final Peak @ 149’26 – 1346 (44 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 149’12 – 1421 (79 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.15 climbed greatly from last month while the bid to cover ratio remained at 2.4. This caused the bonds to rally 7 ticks in about 14 sec to cross the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 149’07 with no slippage. Look to exit at 149’11 just above the S1 Mid Pivot with 4 ticks where it hovered. After that it reversed 4 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before stepping higher for a final peak of 14 more ticks in 41 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 35 min to the S1 Mid Pivot.

CL 07-15 (1 Min) 6.17.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 072015

6/17/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.66M
Actual: -2.68M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.31M
Actual: 0.46M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.03M
Actual: 0.11M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 61.09
1st Peak @ 60.59 – 1031:03 (2 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 60.77 – 1037 (7 min)
18 ticks

Final Peak @ 58.95 – 1206 (96 min)
214 ticks

Reversal to 59.44 – 1226 (116 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. This caused a short spike of 50 ticks that started above the R3 Mid Pivot and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the R2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 60.97 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it would have slowly trickled lower to the R2 Pivot and hovered to allow 30-35 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 18 ticks in 5 min before stepping lower for a final peak of 164 more ticks in 89 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 49 ticks in 20 min after crossing the 50 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot.

CL 08-15 (1 Min) 6.24.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 082015

6/24/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.10M
Actual: -4.93M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.30M
Actual: 0.68M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.99M
Actual: 1.84M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 61.30
1st Peak @ 61.50 – 1030:00 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 60.99 – 1030:36 (1 min)
51 ticks

Continued Reversal to 60.76 – 1035 (5 min)
74 ticks

Pullback to 61.45 – 1043 (13 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 60.98 – 1056 (26 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a bit of indecision as it climbed 20 ticks immediately then started to reverse after 4 sec and fell 51 ticks in 36 sec to the 100/200 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 61.43 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then it would have bounced around the fill point for 4 sec before falling. Since it made a double top with the high from 10 min earlier and the HOD was still above, look to exit quickly to limit the loss. If not the stop would have been taken shortly after. After the reversal, it chopped and continued to reverse for another 23 ticks in 4 min. Then it pulled back 69 ticks in 8 min before reversing 47 ticks in 13 min to the 200 SMA.

NG 07-15 (1 Min) 6.18.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 132015

6/18/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 95B
Actual: 89B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.840
Whipsaw between 2.833 and 2.882 – 1030:00 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 2.817 – 1030:25 (1 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 2.844 – 1035 (5 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 2.823 – 1041 (11 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 2.874 – 1053 (23 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 2.828 – 1112 (42 min)
46 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly lesser gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a whipsaw initially that spanned 49 ticks from the PP Pivot on the upper end to the 200 SMA on the lower end in 1 sec. Then it fell 23 ticks from the origin in 25 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, you would have filled long and then been stopped out for about 22 ticks with slippage. After the reversal it pulled back 27 ticks in 4 min to the 50 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 21 ticks in 6 min. Then it pulled back 51 ticks in 12 min to nearly reach the PP Pivot before reversing 45 ticks in 42 min. After that it traded sideways for almost an hour then fell.

NG 08-15 (1 Min) 6.25.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 132015

6/25/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 75B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.845
1st Peak @ 2.804 – 1030:06 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 2.839 – 1030:29 (1 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 2.803 – 1033 (3 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 2.850 – 1039 (9 min)
47 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.800 – 1049 (19 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 2.831 – 1105 (35 min)
31 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly lesser gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a relatively slow short spike of 41 ticks in 6 sec that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 2.834 with 1 tick of slippage then seen it fall another 30 ticks then reverse slowly for 35 ticks in 23 sec. After that it pulled back 36 ticks for a double bottom in 2 min. Look to exit quickly after seeing it start to back off with about 20 ticks. After the double bottom, it reversed 47 ticks in 6 min to nearly reach the HOD before falling for a minor 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 10 min. Then it reversed 31 ticks in 16 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Oct 132014

9/30/2014 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 324.25
1st Peak @ 321.00 – 1200:30 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 323.25 – 1200:54 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 319.50 – 1206 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 324.00 – 1242 (42 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a mild bearish reaction. It fell 13 ticks, reaching the S3 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short after a 25 sec wait with about 1-2 ticks of slippage at 322.50 or 322.25, then seen it hover just above the S3 Mid Pivot for about 20 sec. Exiting after seeing the hovering at about 321.25 would have been safe for about 4-5 ticks. After the hovering, it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 24 sec to the S2 Mid Pivot as the :01 bar was expiring. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to the S3 Pivot 5 min later. After that it reversed 18 ticks in 36 min to the 200 SMA. Then it backed off and traded sideways into the session close.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.30.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Aug 012015

6/30/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 97.1
Actual: 101.4
Previous revision: -0.8 to 94.6
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.008184
Whipsaw between 0.008196 and 0.008176 – 1000:01 (1 min)
20 ticks span

Pullback to 0.008193 – 1016 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008185 – 1025 (25 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a 4.3 point delta offset by a modest downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a whipsaw that spanned 20 ticks in 1 sec. This would have filled your long entry then fallen to stop you out with 10 ticks including 2 ticks of slippage. This was due to the impact of the Greek default and wide gap between both sides. After the whipsaw, it pulled back 9 ticks in 15 min before reversing 8 ticks in 9 min. Note that it also had a quick spike and retreat 17 min before the report.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.1.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Aug 022015

7/1/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 219K
Actual: 237K
Previous revision: +2K to 203K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008137 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008128 – 0815:01 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008137 – 0815:07 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008130 – 0815:24 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008136 – 0816:02 (2 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008127 – 0821 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008139 – 0845 (30 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008128 (No Pivot / SMA near) / 0.008118 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008146 (No SMA /Pivot near) / 0.008156 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 18K better that the forecast with a negligible revision to the previous report to cause a 9 tick short spike that started on the 13 SMA and fell to extend the LOD then reverse. This would have just barely missed the inner long entry and not allowed a manual adjusted entry. It reversed 9 ticks in 6 sec then fell 7 ticks in 17 sec. After that it reversed 6 ticks before falling 9 ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 24 min.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.1.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 022015

7/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.2
Actual: 53.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE – DULL FILL
Started @ 0.008128
1st Peak @ 0.008120 – 1000:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008130 – 1000:09 (1 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.008122 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008144 – 1034 (34 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report narrowly exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 0.3 pts. In lieu of the Greek situation effect on the market, this caused a short spike of 8 ticks that quickly reversed for 10 ticks in 9 sec. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008123 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it reversed to within 1 tick of the stop before trickling back down to allow a breakeven exit after about 3 min. After that it reversed 22 ticks in 31 min after crossing all 3 SMAs.

ES 09-15 (1 Min) 7.2.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Aug 032015

7/2/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 231K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 223K
Previous Revision: -26K to 254K
Rate Forecast: 5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2073.00 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2078.50 – 0830:41 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 2075.00 – 0830:46 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 2079.00 – 0841 (11 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 2072.25 – 0916 (46 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2067.00 (just below the LOD) / 2063.00 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 2079.50 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 2083.00 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Weak report with 8K less jobs added than the forecast, a strong downward revision to the previous report along with a drop in the U-3 rate that was attributed to less people looking for work. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks in 41 sec that would have barely missed the inner short tier by 3-4 ticks. It did not hover, so no manual entry was available. It reversed in the next few sec for 14 ticks, then chopped sideways before climbing for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 10 min. Then it reversed 27 ticks in 35 min.

Older Entries Newer Entries