US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.8.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 092015

7/8/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.46/2.7
Actual: 2.23/2.7
INDECISIVE
Started @ 153’24 (1301)
1st Peak @ 153’27 – 1301:31 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 153’24 – 1301:32 (1 min)
3 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell a healthy amount while the bid to cover ratio stayed the same. This caused the ZB to spike long 3 ticks then back off to the origin before reclaiming the rise. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 153’27 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall to hit the stop for a 3 tick loss. In hindsight, a 1 tick larger stop would have ridden the heat and allowed a breakeven to 1 tick loss exit as it hovered and reversed a few min later.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.9.2015

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 092015

7/9/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.14/2.5
Actual: 3.08/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’10 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 151’28 – 1302:20 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 152’03 – 1308 (7 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 151’18 – 1326 (25 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 151’26 – 1330 (29 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month as the bid to cover also dropped. This caused the bonds to spike short for 14 ticks in about 70 sec as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 152’05 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to drop and trickle down to hover around 151’29 to allow about 8 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 7 ticks in 5 min to the S3 Mid Pivot / 13 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 18 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.8.2015

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Aug 102015

7/8/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 153’20
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’25 – 1400:36 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 153’18 – 1402:27 (3 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 153’31 – 1409 (9 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 153’23 – 1414 (14 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 154’11 – 1448 (48 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 153’29 – 1514 (74 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 153’15 (match the low at 1350) / 153’11 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 153’25 (just above the 100 /50 SMAs) / 153’29 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was continuing to evaluate when to execute the rate hike with September being the most likely course of action. This causes a perfect setup for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 5 tick spike long in 36 sec that crossed the 100 /50 SMAs and collapsed. This would have filled the inner short entry perfectly then allowed up to 7 ticks to be captured in 2 min just below the 200 SMA. After that it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot in 6 min before reversing 8 ticks in 5 min to the PP Pivot and 100/50 SMAs. Then it stepped higher for a final peak of 12 more ticks in 34 min after crossing the R1 Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 26 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.6.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 242015

7/6/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.008161
1st Peak @ 0.008164 – 1000:02 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008159 – 1002 (2 min)
5 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008152 – 1018 (18 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.5 pts. This caused a 3 tick long move that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 50 SMA. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have barely filled at 0.008164 with no slippage, then you would have seen it fall to hover 1-2 ticks in the red for 12 sec. Look to exit there on the dull reaction. It reversed 5 ticks in 1 min then another 7 ticks in 16 min after crossing the 200 SMA.

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 7.11.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 242014

7/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 388.50
1st Peak @ 383.50 – 1204 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 387.50 – 1207 (7 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 382.50 – 1210 (36 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 388.00 – 1219 (19 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a muted and tame move that took a few min to pan out. As it moved slowly, it fell 20 ticks in 4 min, stepping lower until it reached the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 387.25 with no slippage, then seen it fall and hover around the S2 Pivot for the first bar. Then it would have retraced to the origin and fallen again to allow an exit with about 2 ticks quickly or up to about 14 ticks if patient. There was no great place to setup a profit target, but 10 ticks would be conservative. After that it reversed for 16 ticks in 3 min , returning to the 13 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 3 min to eclipse the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 22 ticks back to the 50 SMA. After that it trended lower.

ZC 07-14 (1 Min) 6.11.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 032014

6/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 449.00
1st Peak @ 442.00 – 1206 (6 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 446.00 – 1215 (15 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 441.00 – 1236 (36 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a delayed but tame short move that did not move until 29 sec into the bar. If you were listening to talking forex, you would have heard about the delay and been able to leave the bracket on the chart. As it moved slowly, it fell 23 ticks in 30 sec to close out the :01 bar, then another 5 ticks on the next 5 bars as it flirted with the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 448.50 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it fall and hover around 444.00 at the end of the :01 bar, allowing a safe 18 ticks to be captured. Setting a profit target on or just below the S1 Pivot would also be prudent to snag another 7 or so ticks. After that it reversed for 16 ticks in 9 min , crossing the 20 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 21 min to the S2 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways in a tight range on the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZS 11-15 (1 Min) 7.10.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Aug 252015

7/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1021.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1024.25 – 1200:38 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1010.50 – 1201:47 (2 min)
55 ticks

Pullback to 1029.00 – 1208 (8 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 1022.00 – 1212 (12 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 1036.75 – 1229 (29 min)
59 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the timing a little less than ideal as it hit a peak at 38 sec. The 32 sec setup would have seen an anchor point at 1021 at a point of consolidation just above the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 1022.50 with no slippage, then you would have seen it only gain a few ticks as it struggled with the 100/200 SMAs. With this picture of a reversal likely running its course and struggling to go higher, either look to exit or move the stop up to breakeven. It reversed 55 ticks in the next min to nearly reach the PP Pivot then pulled back 74 ticks in 6 min to the HOD. Then it reversed 28 ticks in 4 min to the cluster of SMAs before pulling back 59 ticks in 17 min.

ZC 11-15 (1 Min) 8.12.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Aug 252015

8/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL FILL…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 938.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 942.00 – 1200:42 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 923.00 – 1201:23 (2 min)
76 ticks

Pullback to 935.00 – 1202:20 (3 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 901.50 – 1209 (9 min)
134 ticks

Pullback to 922.50 – 1214 (14 min)
84 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the timing a little less than ideal as it hit a peak at 38 sec. The 32 sec setup would have seen an anchor point at 938.50 at a point of consolidation just below the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 940.00 with no slippage, then you would have seen it only gain a few ticks as it struggled with the S3 Mid Pivot. Move the stop up to breakeven and see it get taken. It reversed 76 ticks in the next min then pulled back 48 ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 134 ticks in 9 min to the S4 Pivot before pulling back 84 ticks in 14 min to the 13 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.14.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 292015

7/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to 0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 1.0%
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 149’03
1st Peak @ 149’21 – 0830:03 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 149’10 – 0830:44 (1 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 149’17 – 0834 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 149’06 – 0836 (6 min)
11 ticks

Pullback to 149’20 – 0855 (25 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 149’00 – 0919 (49 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Import Prices. All the news was bearish. This caused an 18 tick long spike that started on the PP Pivot and climbed to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD in 3 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 149’08 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hover for about 7 sec within 3 ticks of the top, so look to exit there with about 10 ticks. It reversed 11 ticks in 40 sec before pulling back 7 ticks to the old HOD position. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 6 min to the 13 SMA before pulling back 14 ticks in 19 min for a near double top. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 24 min to the 200 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.29.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Aug 302015

7/29/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 154’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 154’12 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 154’07 – 1400:51 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Pullback to 154’14 – 1402:12 (3 min)
)))7 ticks
————
Reversal to 153’28 – 1405 (5 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 154’22 – 1433 (33 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 154’03 – 1527 (87 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 153’28 (just below the LOD) / 153’20 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 154’10 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot) / 154’19 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED deferred the option of a rate hike to September or December, but stated the economy was continuing to improve since the winter quarter. This caused the expected instability with a 9 tick long spike in 29 sec followed by a 5 tick small reversal. This would have filled the inner short entry at 22 sec. Then you would have seen it continue to bounce around the fill point for about 2 min when it climbed to nearly reach the S1 Pivot before reversing 18 ticks to the LOD. The reversal took longer than normal to materialize, but patience for the true reversal would have paid off allowing up to 14 ticks to be captured after about 5 min. After that it hovered between the LOD and S2 Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 28 min after eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 54 min back to the origin.

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