US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.30.2015

Advance GDP Comments Off

Aug 302015

7/30/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.6%
Actual: 2.3%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to 0.2%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 153’28 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 154’11 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))15 ticks

)))Reversal to 153’18 – 0830:30 (1 min)
)))-25 ticks

)))Pullback to 153’28 – 0831:17 (2 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 153’19 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 155’00 – 0902 (32 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 154’18 – 0916 (46 min)
14 ticks

Final Peak @ 155’09 – 0948 (78 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 154’18 – 1031 (121 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 153’16 (just above the S2 Pivot)
Short entry – 154’08 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in weak as it fell short of the mediocre forecast by 0.3%. This caused a quick long spike of 15 ticks in 3 sec that touched the PP Pivot and extended the HOD before reversing. This would have filled the short entry with 3 ticks to spare then allowed up to 21 ticks to be captured as it reversed 28 ticks in 27 sec. A target below the 200 SMA would have yielded 13 ticks and a target below the S2 Mid Pivot would have yielded 18 ticks. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in 47 sec to the 200 SMA before reversing 9 ticks in 4 sec to hover below the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks in 30 min as it reached the R2 Mid Pivot before reversing 14 ticks in 14 min to the R1 Mid Pivot in 14 min. After that it climbed for a final peak of 9 more ticks in 32 min as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot before reversing 23 ticks in 33 min.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 7.30.2015

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 312015

7/30/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.15/2.4
Actual: 2.02/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 155’09 (1301)
1st Peak @ 155’03 – 1301:44 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 155’10 – 1303 (1 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 154’26 – 1316 (14 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 155’08 – 1332 (30 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.02 fell moderately from last month while the bid to cover ratio ticked up to 2.5. This caused the bonds to fall 6 ticks in about 14 sec to cross the R2 Pivot and the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 155’06 with 1 tick of slippage. It peaked and retreated to hover on your fill point to 1 tick of profit. Look to exit where it hovered at breakeven or 1 tick of profit. After that it reversed 7 ticks in 1 min to the 50 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 13 min to nearly reach the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 16 min as it crossed the 100 / 50 SMAs and R2 Pivot.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.27.2015

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 312015

8/27/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.02/2.5
Actual: 1.93/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 156’06 (1301)
1st Peak @ 156’14 – 1301:44 (1 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 157’03 – 1349 (47 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 156’17 – 1449 (107 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.93 fell moderately from last month while the bid to cover ratio stayed the same. This caused the bonds to rise 8 ticks in about 52 sec after crossing the 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 156’08 with no slippage. It peaked and hovered without reversing, then continued to climb another 21 ticks in 47 min to the HOD as it used the 13/20 SMAs as support. Then it reversed 18 ticks in 1 hr to the 200 SMA.

CL 08-15 (1 Min) 7.16.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Sep 042015

7/16/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 11.9
Actual: 5.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 51.63
1st Peak @ 51.39 – 1000:59 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 51.48 – 1002 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 51.19 – 1012 (12 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 51.36 – 1023 (23 min)
17 ticks

Final Peak @ 51.00 – 1040 (40 min)
63 ticks

Reversal to 51.65 – 1142 (102 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a delta of 6.2 pts, causing a short spike of 24 ticks that took the full bar to peak at the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 51.58 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak late to allow up to 18 ticks to be captured. It reversed 9 ticks before falling for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in 10 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 11 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before falling for a final peak of 19 more ticks in 17 min. After that it reversed 65 ticks in 62 min to the OOD.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.17.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Sep 042015

7/17/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 96.0
Actual: 93.3
Previous Revision: +1.5 to 96.1
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008066 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008064 – 0.008067 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008060 (in between the LOD / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008052 (just below the S1 Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008073 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 0.008081 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The report came in below the forecast by 2.7 points. This caused no movement on :01 bar, so cancel the order with no fill after 20 sec.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.28.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Sep 072015

7/28/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 100.1
Actual: 90.9
Previous revision: -1.6 to 99.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008088
1st Peak @ 0.008097 – 1000:03 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.008100 – 1007 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008093 – 1015 (15 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a 9.2 point delta along with a moderate downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a long move of 9 ticks that started just above the 100 SMA and rose to cross the S3 Mid Pivot in 3 sec then hovered near the top. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008091 with no slippage, then allowed about 5 ticks to be captured as it hovered. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 6 min before falling 7 ticks in 8 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 7.27.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Sep 082015

7/27/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: -0.5% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.2%
Regular Actual: 3.4%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to -2.2%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008121
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008118 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008125 – 0832:25 (3 min)
)))7 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008111 (just below the R2 Pivot) / 0.008100 (just above the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008132 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008143 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: The core reading mildly exceeded the forecast with a moderate bearish revision while the regular reading modestly exceeded the forecast with a modest bearish revision. This caused a small short move of only 3 ticks in 5 sec. Cancel the order on the dull move. After that it reversed a total of 7 ticks in 2 min.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.5.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 082015

8/5/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.3
Actual: 60.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008028
1st Peak @ 0.008011 – 1001:52 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.008015 – 1005 (5 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008002 – 1023 (23 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008013 – 1030 (30 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by a large margin of 4.0 pts. This caused a 17 tick short spike that started just above the S2 Pivot and fell to reach the S3 Mid Pivot in nearly 2 min. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008023 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it fall and trickle lower until reaching the S3 Mid Pivot allowing up to 12 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 4 ticks in 3 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in 18 min. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 7 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.5.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Sep 092015

8/5/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 216K
Actual: 185K
Previous revision: -8K to 229K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008053 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008065 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008058 – 0816:40 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008067 – 0823 (8 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008050 – 0832 (17 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008043 (in between the OOD / 200 SMA) / 0.008035 (just below the S1 Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008062 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008072 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 31K worse that the forecast with a moderate downward revision to the previous report to cause a 12 tick long spike that started on the 13 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Pivot. This would have filled the inner short tier at 0.008062 with 3 ticks to spare, then allowed 2-4 ticks to be captured after 1.5 min. After that it climbed for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 6 min to the R1 Pivot before reversing for 17 ticks in 9 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 8.14.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Sep 122015

8/14/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 93.5
Actual: 92.9
Previous Revision: -0.2 to 93.1
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008046 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008045 – 0.008047 – 0831 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008040 (in between the PP Pivot / OOD) / 0.008031 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008052 (in between the R1 Pivot / 200 SMA) / 0.008062 (just below the R2 Pivot / HOD)

Notes: The report came in below the forecast by only 0.6 points for a near match. This caused no movement on :01 bar, so cancel the order with no fill after 20 sec. It did rally a few ticks in the next 45 min most likely correcting the short move preceding.

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