US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 8.27.2015

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Sep 142015

8/27/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 3.2%
Actual: 3.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 156’11
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 155’31 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 156’04 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Pullback to 155’28 – 0831:45 (2 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Reversal to 156’12 – 0836 (6 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 155’16 – 0911 (41 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 156’19 – 1004 (94 min)
35 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 156’07 (just below the 50 SMA)/ 156’03 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 156’16 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 156’19 (in between the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.5%, causing a large short spike of 12 ticks in 9 sec that started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing. This would have filled the inner and outer long entries making an average long position of 156’05. As it reversed, it climbed only 5 ticks and hovered 9 for 9 sec to allow an exit with 1-2 ticks loss for a total loss of 2-4 ticks. After that it continued to fall for 8 ticks to the LOD before reversing 16 ticks in 4 min to the 100 SMA. Then it fell for a final peak of 13 more ticks in 35 min as it extended the LOD before reversing 35 ticks in 53 min.in 34 sec then hovered at 155’06 (the inner short tier) to allow 21 total ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min before reversing 15 ticks in 33 min. Then it pulled back 8 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA.

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 10.2.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072015

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 10_2_2015 ES 12-15 (Second) 10_2_2015

10/2/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 201K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 142K
Previous Revision: -37K to 136K
Rate Forecast: 5.1%
Rate Actual: 5.1%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 1926.75
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1901.50 – 0831:13 (2 min)
)))-101 ticks

)))Reversal to 1909.00 – 0831:36 (2 min)
)))30 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 1883.00 – 0952 (82 min)
175 ticks

Reversal to 1905.75 – 1109 (159 min)
91 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1921.75 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 1916.75 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 1931.50 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1936.50 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 1921.75 and 1916.75 (both long tiers)
Best Initial Exit: 1916.75 – 20 tick loss (50 tick loss if stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1925.00 (just above the SMAs)

Notes: Strongly disappointing report caused a huge selloff. Still the support of the OOD would have slowed the fall to allow an exit at the outer tier fill after 20 seconds of hovering. It continued to step lower until 82 min after the report, then reversed all the way into the session close.

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 11.6.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072015

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 11_6_2015

11/6/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 181K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 271K
Previous Revision: -5K to 137K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 2095.25 – shift 4 ticks lower to 2094.25
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2082.00 – 0831:10 (2 min)
)))-49 ticks

)))Reversal to 2099.00 – 0833:48 (4 min)
)))68 ticks
————
Pullback to 2082.75 – 0858 (28 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 2096.25 – 0937 (67 min)
54 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2077.50 – 1007 (97 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 2091.50 – 1047 (137 min)
56 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2088.75 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 2084.00 (just below the S1Pivot)
Short entries – 2099.25 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD) / 2104.00 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 2088.75 and 2084.00 (both long tiers)
Best Initial Exit: 2098.75 – 99 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2094.25 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Nice outer tier trap trade good for up to nearly 100 ticks with patience. It continued to cycle allowing several other trades for the next 2.5 hrs.

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 12.4.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072015

ES 12-15 (1 Min) 12_4_2015 ES 12-15 (Second) 12_4_2015

12/4/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 201K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 211K
Previous Revision: +27K to 298K
Rate Forecast: 5.0%
Rate Actual: 5.0%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 2055.25
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2060.75 – 0830:10 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 2055.75 – 0830:17 (1 min)
)))-20 ticks

)))Pullback to 2062.00 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 2055.50 – 0832:18 (3 min)
)))26 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 2062.75 – 0840 (10 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 2046.75 – 0910 (40 min)
64 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2050.50 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 2045.25 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 2060.50 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 2065.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: 2060.50 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 2056.00 – 18 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2053.50 (just above the OOD) – move higher

Notes: Good inner tier trade. The HOD held as resistance after being tested several times. That made for a good setup for a reversal entry short at 0840. After the reversal, the market rallied into the session close.

ZC 07-14 (1 Min) 5.9.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

May 252014

5/9/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 519.25
1st Peak @ 522.75 – 1200:00 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 513.75 – 1200:26 (1 min)
36 ticks

Double Top @ 522.75 – 1201:16 (2 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 510.75 – 1205 (5 min)
48 ticks

Pullback to 519.00 – 1214 (14 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 505.75 – 1234 (34 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a choppy and relatively small bullish reaction initially that turned into a short move at the end of the :01 bar. It climbed only 14 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot, then reversed after about 7 sec reaching the origin in 9 sec, then 36 ticks after 26 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 520.75 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it give only 5 ticks of profit for 3 sec before it started to back off. As this report can reverse quickly this is a trigger to exit near breakeven. This would have been achieved with an exit within the first 7 sec. After the large reversal, it climbed for a double top on the latter part of the :31 bar and early :32 bar. Then it continued to chop as it fell, neary reaching the S2 Pivot after 34 min. As this report can reverse quickly, it would be prudent to “reverse” the trade after the observation of the initial behavior or enter a short trade on the double top and look for 20-30 ticks.

ZS 05-14 (1 Min) 4.9.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

May 042014

4/9/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE (STOPPED OUT)
Started @ 1504.50 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1507.00 – 1200:37 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 1496.50 – 1201:15 (2 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1512.00 – 1205 (5 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 1496.25 – 1215 (15 min)
63 ticks

Notes: We tried a new approach with this report that worked the last 6 times, but of course failed this time unfortunately. With a 6 tick bracket activating at 1200:32, you would have filled long and then seen it fall and stop you out. If we had not filled long, the short move would have filled and then resulted in about 25 ticks available for capture. After a 1st peak long, and a reversal on the :02 bar that fell back to the 50 SMA, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks. Then it reversed for 63 ticks in the next 10 min crossing the 100 SMA and nearly reaching the 200 SMA. Since the Corn and Soybeans were both safe for the traditional JOBB approach, we will shift back to that for next month.

ZC 05-14 (1 Min) 3.10.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Mar 282014

3/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 485.00
1st Peak @ 487.50 – 1201 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 481.00 – 1202 (2 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 486.00 – 1209 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 475.50 – 1244 (44 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a choppy and relatively small bullish reaction initially that turned into a short move at the end of the :01 bar. It climbed only 10 ticks, crossing the 100 / 50 SMAs and S1 Mid Pivot, but was unable to penetrate the HOD at 11 ticks, before backing off and chopping between the origin and 486.75. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 486.50 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it bounce above and below the fill point. After noticing the small spike of only 10 ticks and the HOD untested, look to exit near breakeven by moving the profit target to the fill point and your stop up to 484.50 (-8 ticks) which was just below the support line seen on the last 5 min. You would have opportunities to exit at breakeven up to 16 sec and again at 48 sec before it reversed to close our the bar. It continued to reverse through the S1 Pivot on the :02 bar for a total of 26 ticks. After a pullback of 20 ticks in the next 7 min back to the S1 Mid Pivot, it fell for a reversal of 42 ticks in the next 35 min as it crossed the S2 Pivot. Due to the changing trend of this report, we are evaluating alternate approached and/or the ZS to trade.

ZC 03-14 (1 Min) 2.10.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Mar 012014

2/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 445.75
1st Peak @ 449.00 – 1201 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 444.75 – 1203 (3 min)
17 ticks

Double Top @ 449.00 – 1208 (8 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 443.25 – 1226 (26 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a choppy and relatively small bullish reaction. It climbed only 13 ticks, crossing all the R2 Pivot, before backing off and chopping between the origin and the R2. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 447.25 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it bounce above and below the fill point. After noticing the established high at a point of resistance at 449.00, place your profit target 1 tick lower at 448.75. This would have had several opportunities to fill for 6 ticks. It would also be wise to sell the top at 448.75 and look for about 12 ticks with the anticipation that it will fall at least to the origin as the :03 bar fell to the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA for 17 ticks. Then it rebounded for a double top on the :08 bar before falling to cross the 200 SMA and reach the PP Pivot on the :26 bar.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9.9.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Dec 122015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 9_9_2015

9/9/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.12/2.4
Actual: 2.24/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 153’10 (1301)
1st Peak @ 153’17 – 1302:19 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 153’08 – 1319 (18 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 154’27 – 1445 (104 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 154’10 – 1507 (126 min)
17 ticks

Expected Fill: 153’12 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 153’16 – 4 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 153’16 (above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Big 2nd peak that was due to more than the bond auction results.

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10.7.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Dec 132015

ZB 12-15 (1 Min) 10_7_2015

10/7/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.24/2.7
Actual: 2.07/2.6
INDECISIVE
Started @ 157’16 (1301)
1st Peak @ 157’11 – 1301:34 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 157’19 – 1301:48 (1 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 157’11 – 1311 (10 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 157’20 – 1324 (23 min)
9 ticks

Expected Fill: 157’13 (short)
Slippage: 1 ticks
Best Initial Exit: Stopped @ 157’16 – 3 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 157’09 (above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Rare whipsaw on a usually reliable safe report.

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