US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 02-14 (1 Min) 1.15.2014

Beige Book Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/15/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION (No Fill)
Started @ 94.40
1st Peak @ 94.53 – 1405 (5 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 94.14 – 1430 (30 min)
39 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace during the reporting period of late November through the end of the year. Nine Districts reported moderate growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while modest growth was reported in the Philadelphia and Boston districts, and Kansas City reported no change. The DX had minimal movement, and mostly chopped sideways. This resulted in only a 4 tick move in the first two bars, so cancel the order with no fill. If you had used JOBB and not cancelled, it would have filled on the :03 bar, then given a handful of ticks on the :05 bar as it briefly broke out above the 100/50 SMAs. After that a long and slow developing reversal yielded 39 ticks as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and the R3 Pivot as the pit closed. Then volume and price action dried up as it pulled back up.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.14.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/14/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 0.4%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 130’30
1st Peak @ 130’22 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 131’01 – 0846 (16 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report was mixed overall, but the 0.3% positive offset on the core reading dominated the bearish revisions and matching regular reading. This caused a moderate short reaction of 8 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and hit the LOD/S1 Pivot, then retreated leaving 4 ticks on the tail naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 130’26 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 3-4 ticks on the S1 Pivot when it hovered for about 10 sec. After the retreat late in the :31 bar, it continued to reverse on the :32 bar to the PP Pivot for 9 ticks. Then it chopped between the PP Pivot and 50 SMA before gaining 2 more ticks on the :46 bar. After that it fell to get stuck on the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/23/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009612 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009624 – 0830:19 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009614 – 0830:47 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 0.009625 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009610 – 0840 (10 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009602 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009593 (just below the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009622 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009632 (no SMA/Pivot within 5 ticks)

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 5K jobs causing a long impulse on the 6J for 12 ticks initially as it hit the R3 Mid Pivot. That would have easily filled the inner short entry with 2 ticks to spare. Then it would have retreated to give you up to 8 ticks later in the bar for an ideal exit. If you left the order open, it would have tested the R3 Mid Pivot one more time, then engaged in a slower reversal of 15 ticks in 8 min back to the R2 Pivot. This would have offered up to 10-11 ticks to be captured on the 100 Pivot. After that it rallied long and sustained the bullish move.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.16.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Feb 082014

1/16/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 327K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009565 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Dull Reaction with only 5 ticks span of movement within first 20 sec
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009555 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.009545 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009574 (just above the PP Pivot ) / 0.009583 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching again and the CPI releasing at the same time was matching. This should have been a good setup for the trap trade approach, but was dull instead. This caused a muted reaction of only 5 ticks on the :31 bar in the first 20 sec. With no impulse to fill either trap order, cancel the order. Notice if you left the trap on the board, the inner tier sell order may have filled late in the :31 bar, then only given 4-5 ticks before continuing upward. With this report, we are looking to take advantage of a quick impulse and the sharp pullback, not a late tame move.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 1.23.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 052014

1/23/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.59M
Actual: 0.99M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.08M
Actual: 2.12M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.85M
Actual: -3.21M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.14
1st Peak @ 97.25 – 1101 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 96.83 – 1103 (3 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.79 – 1127 (27 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 97.58 – 1135 (35 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Minimal gain in inventories when a smaller gain was expected, while gasoline saw a nearly matching moderate gain, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a modest gain was expected. The near match on the crude and gasoline figures acted like a wet blanket initially as it only moved 11 ticks from the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 97.24 with no slippage about 10 sec into the bar if you did not cancel the order, then seen it fall back and hover between 97.15 and 97.22 for the majority of the :31 bar. Look to exit with about a 5 tick loss on the initial dull movement. After the peak, it reversed for 42 ticks in the next 2 bars, nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot. Given the results, the distillates figures should eventually dominate with the largest offset and the impact of the winter. A buy after the big red :32 bar would have been savvy. It rallied for a slow developing, but substantial 2nd peak of 65 ticks in the next 24 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 21 ticks in 8 min to the 13 SMA and settled to trade sideways near the R2 Pivot.

CL 02-14 (1 Min) 1.15.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Feb 052014

1/15/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.61M
Actual: -7.66M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.54M
Actual: 6.18M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.46M
Actual: -1.02M
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 93.45
1st Peak @ 93.88 – 1032 (2 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 93.60 – 1034 (4 min)
28 ticks

Final Peak @ 94.46 – 1127 (57 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 94.13 – 1139 (69 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Large draw in inventories when a slight draw was expected, while gasoline saw a large gain when a moderate gain was expected and distillates saw a modest draw when a modest gain was expected. Even though divergent, these numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than expected and the draw on distillates was not surprising due to the extreme cold weather. With the results being divergent, the draws on the crude and distillated won the influence battle overall with a 43 tick long spike that crossed the R3 Mid Pivot on the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 93.57 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit 93.75 quickly and hover in that area. With the R3 Mid Pivot close by, you could look to exit near 93.75 or be patient and place a target at about 93.85 and wait for it to fill. This would allow 18-28 ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed for 28 ticks in the next 2 bars, back to the area near the 13 SMA. Then it rallied and developed into an Upward FAN, stepping higher to 94.46, above the R3 Pivot, nearly an hour after the report. After that, it surrendered 33 ticks in 12 min back to the 50 SMA, then rebounded to settle into trading between the R3 Pivot and HOD for a while.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.6.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 142014

1/6/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 53.0
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009545
1st Peak @ 0.009555 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009562 – 1007 (7 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009548 – 1015 (15 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Moderately negative report fell short of the forecast by 1.6 points. This caused a long spike of 10 ticks on the :01 bar as it started just below the S1 Pivot, then crossed the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.009549 with 1 tick of slippage on a premature move at the end of the :00 bar, then seen it continue to rally to hit the 100 SMA. It backed off and hovered about 2 ticks lower than the 100 SMA. Set your profit target at 0.009555 or 0.009556, just above the 100 SMA and wait for the fill, which would have happened on the :02 bar. After the 1st peak, it continued to climb for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in the next 7 min, crossing the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 14 ticks in 8 min, back to the 50 SMA.

CL 02-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jan 132014

1/8/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.89M
Actual: -2.68M
Gasoline
Forecast: 2.28M
Actual: 6.24M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.90M
Actual: 5.83M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.55
1st Peak @ 93.01 – 1031 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 93.32 – 1032 (2 min)
31 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.85 – 1036 (6 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 93.33 – 1059 (29 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a slight draw was expected, while gasoline and distillates both saw large gains when modest gains were expected. These numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than expected. With the results being divergent, the large gains on the products won the influence battle initially with a 54 tick short spike that crossed the 50 SMA, and the S2 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 93.40 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit the S2 Mid Pivot immediately, then swing between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots. A target of 30 ticks would have easily filled, or place a target near the S2 Mid Pivot for 35+ ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 31 ticks on the next bar, back to the S1 Pivot before falling for a 2nd peak of 16 more ticks in the next 4 min. Then it reversed for 48 ticks in the next 23 min as it reached the 50 SMA and S1 Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.9.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 122014

1/9/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 337K
Actual: 330K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009536 (last price)
————
)))Trap Trade:
)))Dull Reaction with only 3 ticks span of movement
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009526 (on the S1 Pivot) / 0.009516 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009546 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009554 (in between the HOD and R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching again and should have been a good setup for the trap trade approach, but was dull instead. This caused a muted reaction of only 3 ticks on the :31 bar. With no impulse to fill either trap order, cancel the order.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/8/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 128’20
1st Peak @ 128’14 – 1401 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 128’21 – 1422 (22 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 128’27 – 1507 (67 min)
13 ticks

Notes: After the FED finally commenced scaling back QE3 last month by $10B a month, they announced their intention to continue scaling back at a modest pace while monitoring the employment and inflation picture. This caused the bonds to fall only 6 ticks, as the minutes were unsurprising. With JOBB you would have filled short at 128’17 with 1 tick of slippage. Since it was a tame move and had to contend with all 3 major SMAs, move the stop to -2 ticks and set a target at 2 ticks. The 2 tick target would have filled later in the :01 bar. After the peak, it continued to oscillate around the SMAs within a span of only 5 ticks before it eventually reversed for 7 ticks, just above the origin on the :22 bar. After that it achieved an extended reversal of 6 more ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot 45 min later.

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