US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.8.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282013

8/8/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 336K
Actual: 333K
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010376
1st Peak @ 0.010368 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.010383 – 0831 (1 min)
15 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010414 – 0857 (27 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching, but slightly better than the forecast by 3k jobs, causing an initial short spike of 8 ticks that was shortly sustained. It crossed only the OOD and no other discernable support barrier. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010372 with no slippage then only shown 4 ticks of profit which would have vanished after 11 sec. This is where you need to exit quickly between breakeven and 2-3 ticks after recognition of the scenario. In any event, do not be asleep at the switch and eat a 10 tick loss unnecessarily. It would also be advisable to reverse the trade on the short move expecting a reversal. It reversed 15 ticks in the latter part of the :31 bar, and continued for an extended reversal of 46 ticks in the next 25 min, crossing the HOD and the R1 Pivot.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.1.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282013

8/1/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 346K
Actual: 326K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010137
1st Peak @ 0.010114 – 0833 (3 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.010135 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010105 – 0908 (38 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.010122 – 0924 (54 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 20k jobs, causing a short spike of 23 ticks. It crossed all 3 major SMAs and eventually reached the S2 Pivot while extending the LOD . With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.010128 with 5 ticks of slippage. With the large offset, be patient and look to exit at the LOD around 0.010118 for 10 ticks on the :32 bar. After reaching the S2 Pivot, it reversed for 21 ticks in the next 6 min, with an unsustainable wick poking through all3 major SMAs on the :39 bar. Then it chopped sideways below the SMAs before falling for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks 30 min later. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in the next 16 min back to the 50 SMA.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.30.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

10/30/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’14 (1400)
Fake Spike @ 135’22 -1401 (1 min)
8 ticks

1st Peak @ 134’28 – 1402 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 135’09 – 1407 (7 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’19 – 1428 (28 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 135’02 – 1504 (64 min)
15 ticks

Notes: After the surprise last month, the FED again chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy and delay tapering saying it needs to see more evidence that the economy will continue to improve. Similar to June, this caused a fake spike long for 8 ticks, followed by the true short move of 18 ticks from the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 135’17, then seen it peak with 5 ticks of profit 9 sec into the bar before reversing. If you were familiar with this report, you should have been able to exit near break even when it failed to move more than 8 ticks as this is a precursor for a reversal. In this case it fell for another 18 ticks into the :02 bar to reach the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 13 ticks back to the 13 SMA. In this situation, after a correcting reversal, look to sell the near the PP Pivot and snag about 8-10 ticks as it heads for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks to nearly reach the S2 Pivot at the bottom of the hour. After that it reversed for 15 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot about 30 min later.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 9.18.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

9/18/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 130’05 (1400)
1st Peak @ 131’23 – 1402 (2 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 130’27 – 1405 (5 min)
28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’15 – 1504 (64 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 131’25 – 1556 (116 min)
22 ticks

Notes: To the surprise of all, the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy and delay tapering despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions. This caused a very large long spike of 50 ticks that crossed the 50/100 SMAs and nearly reached the R4 Mid Pivot in 2 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 130’16 with 6 ticks of slippage then seen it shoot to the moon as the market had priced in tapering. Do not be in a big hurry to exit in this situation. Use the R3 Pivot or above for a good exit of at least 25 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed 28 ticks to the R2 Pivot to correct after such a large move. In this situation, after a big correction, look to buy the dip and snag about 10 ticks. After chopping sideways between the R2 Pivot and R3 Pivot for about 45 min, it rose for a 2nd peak of 24 ticks above the 1st peak, crossing the R4 Pivot. Then it backed off and gave back 22 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot before heading sideways into the close.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.31.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Dec 272013

7/31/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE (UPWARD FAN)
Started @ 133’03 (1400)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 133’11 – 1400:19 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’03 – 1401:25 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 133’16 – 1403:20 (4 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’03 – 1407:03 (8 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 134’13 – 1531 (91 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 134’06 – 1545 (105 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions, but reiterated previous comments about tapering off the bond buying later in the year. This caused an initial long move that nearly reached the S2 Pivot for 8 ticks, then a return to the origin. It repeated the cycle before developing into an upward fan for the long term reaction. A Trap Trade with 6-8 ticks offset would use the S3 Mid Pivot at 133’02 as the anchor point, then go with 133’08 – 133’10 for the short entry and 132’28 – 132’26 for the long entry. The initial burst long would have filled the short entry easily, then see the reversal give at least 4 ticks if you targeted the 100 SMA. Later opportunities to buy low and sell high were available, as it achieved a 2nd peak, then fell to the origin one more time. Then it rode the 13/20 SMAs for nearly an hour and a half as it eclipsed the R1 Pivot for 42 ticks. Then we saw a reversal of 7 ticks in the next 14 min.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 11.20.2013

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Dec 262013

11/20/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 131’24
1st Peak @ 131’14 – 1401 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 131’26 – 1404 (4 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 131’09 – 1412 (12 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 131’21 – 1420 (20 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 130’28 – 1526 (86 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 131’04 – 1601 (121 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Same song, different dance…the FED kept things vague and noncommittal announcing the intention to scale back bond buying in “the coming months” with no timeline or other specifics. This caused the bonds to fall 10 ticks, as it was already engaged in a longer term downtrend. With JOBB you would have filled short at 131’21 or 20 with 1 tick of slippage. As is typical with this report it likes to test a spike then rebound a few sec later. In this case it fell 10 ticks and hovered there for about 10 sec midway through the :31 bar. Then it reversed and gave it up as the bar expired. Be sure to exit before the reversal takes over in the latter half of the bar. After the :31 bar, it continued reversing to hit the 100 SMA, before stepping lower to a final peak of 28 ticks nearly an hour and a half after the news. Then it traded sideways into the close.

ZB 12-13 (1 Min) 10.9.2013

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Dec 262013

10/9/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’30
1st Peak @ 132’25 – 1401 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’09 – 1442 (42 min)
16 ticks

Notes: As the FED kept things vague and noncommittal announcing the intention to scale back bond buying with no timeline or other specifics, the markets reacted with a sigh. This caused the bonds to fall only 5 ticks, as it was already trading near the session low. With JOBB you would have filled short at 132’27 or 28 with no slippage. After observing the minimal movement and the apparent interaction with support barriers, look to exit at breakeven or 1 tick of profit. Fortunately, it allowed for an exit for 3 min, before it reversed 16 ticks, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot in the next 40 min. After that it fell again to trade near the S1 Pivot until the market close.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 8.13.2013

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 262013

8/13/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.1%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 133’01
1st Peak @ 133’03 – 0831 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 0831 (1 min)
-6 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’22 – 0834 (4 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was mostly matching with a 0.1% better than expected reading on the core, and mild upward revisions on previous reports. This caused a muted reaction that did not stray more than 4 ticks from the origin as it also had to contend with the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 133’03 with no slippage, then stopped out with the opposite entry at 129’31 for -4 ticks. After the :31 bar, it stalled before falling again on the :33 bar for another 9 ticks as it extended the LOD. Then it pulled back and traded sideways between the LOD and S3 Mid Pivot for over an hour until it was able to extend the LOD a few more ticks.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 10.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

10/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.3% to -0.4%
Regular Forecast: 1.7%
Regular Actual: 3.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.2%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.010273
1st peak @ 0.010260 – 0831 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.010283 – 0836 (6 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed and offsetting to bewilder the market. This caused a 13 tick unsustainable short spike that peaked on the :31 bar , crossing the S1 Pivot and 50 SMA while extending the LOD, leaving 14 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 0.010267 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately and back off to hover around the fill point. Given the conflicting results and typical behavior of this report, look to exit near breakeven +/- 2 ticks. After the 1st peak, it continued reversing for the next 5 min to gain another 8 ticks, crossing the 100 SMA, R1 Mid Pivot, and reaching the 200 SMA. Then it fell again in a failed attempt at a 2nd peak that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.26.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

8/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: -0.6%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: -3.0%
Regular Actual: -7.3%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 3.9%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010152
1st peak @ 0.010175 – 0831 (1 min)
23 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010178 – 0849 (19 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.010163 – 0901 (31 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report came in overall bearish and disappointed the market. This caused a 30 tick long spike that peaked on the :31 bar, crossing the R1 Pivot and extending the HOD, leaving 9 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010162 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak immediately and start chopping while falling. A programmed target of 10 ticks would have filled, or if you are looking for an exit after the initial volatility, place a target above the R1 Pivot at about 0.010170 for 8 ticks which would have filled on the :32 bar. After the 1st peak, it continued to oscillate between the R1 Pivot and the HOD until it eventually snagged 3 more ticks after 18 min. When you see a trend like this with little gain on a 2nd peak after repeated attempts over 20 min, it is a good opportunity to trade the reversal as divergence is building. After the 2nd peak, it fell for 15 ticks in 12 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA. After that, it slowly fell for the next few hours as the influence of the news wore off.

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