US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 9.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Dec 262013

9/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.1%
Core Actual: -0.1%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -7.4%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010153
1st peak @ 0.010166 – 0831 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.010150 – 0831 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.010128 – 0912 (42 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly bearish and disappointed the market with a near match on the regular reading. This caused an unsustainable 13 tick long spike that peaked on the :31 bar, then reversed for 16 ticks immediately as an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010159 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it peak and reverse to hit the stop loss for a 6 tick loss with 1 tick of slippage. After 2 cycles from the extremes of the bar, it fell into a long slow developing reversal for another 22 ticks in the next 40 min, crossing the PP Pivot.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 262013

12/11/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -2.95M
Actual: -10.59M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.79M
Actual: 6.72M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.94M
Actual: 4.54M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.82
1st Peak @ 98.25 – 1031 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 97.98 – 1032 (2 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.34 – 1037 (7 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 97.60 – 1137 (67 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Very large draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline and distillates both saw large gains when modest gains were expected. These numbers indicate an excessive refinery capacity that produced far more products than normal. With the results being divergent, the large draw on the crude won the influence battle initially with a 43 tick long spike that crossed all 3 major SMAs, and the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 97.95 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it hit the 100 SMA and hover for a few sec, fall to the 50 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot, then rally again to challenge the 200 SMA and the PP Pivot as the bar expired. If you look back at the activity between 0930 and 1000, you will see the LOD at 97.89, so use that area as a support barrier to move the stop up to about 97.85 (-10 ticks), then place a profit target at 98.22 on the PP Pivot. This would have easily filled for about 25 or so ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 27 ticks on the next bar, back to the S1 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 5 min. Then it chopped lower as it encountered each level of support for 74 ticks in the next hour. as it reached the S1 Pivot and extended the LOD a handful of ticks.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 262013

12/4/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.50M
Actual: -5.59M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.52M
Actual: 1.83M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.77M
Actual: 2.65M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.96
1st Peak @ 96.54 – 1031 (1 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 97.03 – 1049 (19 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.30 – 1113 (43 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 97.50 – 1221 (111 min)
120 ticks

Notes: Healthy draw in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a slightly larger gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a modest draw was expected. With the results being divergent, the product gains won the influence battle initially with a 42 tick short decisive short spike that crossed the 100/50 SMAs, the R1 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 96.84 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it ratchet lower until it hit 96.54 and pulled back. With the activity in the last hour seeing a support barrier at the LOD hold 3 times, look to exit around 96.60 with about 20-25 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 49 ticks in the next 18 min, crossing all 3 SMAs and peaking just above the 200 SMA. Then it fell again for a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks in the next 24 min, chopping lower as it extended the LOD again. Finally, the strong draw in the crude caused a large reversal in the next hour or so for 120 ticks as it sought out the HOD.

ZC 03-14 (1 Min) 12.10.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 242013

12/10/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE /REVERSE
Started @ 438.25
1st Peak @ 440.75 – 1200:08 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 435.75 – 1200:38 (1 min)
-20 ticks

Pullback to 440.50 – 1201:19 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 430.75 – 1217 (17 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a muted and indecisive reaction with a long spike of only 10 ticks on the :01 bar that started on the R1 Mid Pivot then crossed the HOD and R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 440.00 with 2 ticks of slippage. After the fill, it rose only 3 more ticks and hovered for about 5 sec before backing off and falling. As the behavior of this report is quite predictable, look to exit or reverse the trade in the first few seconds near breakeven. Then it fell 20 ticks to cross all 3 SMAs, the PP Pivot, and the origin in the next 30 sec. The reversal does not usually go beyond the origin, so this would represent a good buying opportunity. Then it pulled back to nearly execute a double top at 440.50 on the :02 bar before falling for a much larger reversal of 39 ticks in 17 min to nearly reach the S2 Pivot. I managed to place a long order at the origin on the R1 Mid Pivot when it initially reversed, then rode out the heat and exited on the R1 Pivot when it attempted the double top for 8 ticks.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 12.5.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

12/5/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -0.9%
Actual: -0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.8%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009799
1st Peak @ 0.009794 – 1001 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 0.009806 – 1003 (3 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast with a weak reading and a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that fell 5 ticks, crashing into the 100/200 SMAs and the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009796 with no slippage. Due to the strong support barrier and the matching results, look to exit within 1 tick of break even. As long as you exited before the :03 bar reversed for 12 ticks, you would have been fine. After the reversal, it fell again, but not likely due to the news with a matching report.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 8.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

8/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.3%
Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: +0.9% to 3.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010080
1st Peak @ 0.010095 – 1002 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.010083 – 1012 (12 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010109 – 1033 (33 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 0.010098 – 1034 (34 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast offset with a sizable upward revision to the previous report. This caused a long reaction that achieved 15 ticks on 2 bars, using the 13/20 SMAs as a launching point, crossing the PP Pivot and nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.010085 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at 0.010090 for about 5 ticks when it hovered. After the peak, it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 10 min to the PP Pivot, then it rebounded upward aided by the negative NFP results earlier and achieved a 2nd peak of 24 more ticks in the next 20 min. After a quick 11 tick reversal, it continued the rally, but the impact of this report has likely expired.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Jul 212013

7/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 2.0%
Actual: 2.1%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.3%
DULL REACTION…No Fill
Started @ 136’02
1st Peak @ 136’04 – 1001 (1 min)
2 ticks

Reversal to 135’31 – 1004 (4 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a strong reading and an upward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull reaction that eventually moved 2 ticks, but would have been cause to cancel the order without a fill. As long as you cancelled the order before 35 sec elapsed, you would have been fine. After the muted long move, it fell and reversed only 5 ticks to the 200 SMA on the :04 bar.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 4.2.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

4/2/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 3.0%
Previous Revision: +1.0% to -1.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.39
1st Peak @ 96.49 – 1002 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 96.34 – 1014 (14 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.66 – 1049 (49 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 96.32 – 1106 (66 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a strong reading and an upward revision to the previous report. This caused a 10 tick spike on the :02 bar to narrowly avoid the dull classification. Due to the selloff of about 130 ticks in the past 2 hrs and the drastic extension of the LOD, the market was oversold and unwilling to go lower than the new low of 95.91. A correction was underway in the 30 min prior to report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 96.45 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-4 ticks on the :01 or :02 bars. Knowing the market conditions and the bullish report, I decided to stay in for a longer term 2nd peak. I initially kept my stop loss at the S1 Pivot at 15 ticks, but later moved it up to 96.33 when that level held up after 2 tests. I had a 10 tick target that filled on the :27 bar. The 2nd peak claimed 27 ticks to eclipse the 200 SMA, then the final reversal recaptured 34 ticks. This is an example of how you can use the larger market picture to your advantage.

CL 04-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

Factory Orders Comments Off

Dec 212013

3/6/2013 Monthly Factory Orders (1000 EST)
Forecast: -2.2%
Actual: -2.0%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to 1.3%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 90.17
1st Peak @ 90.09 – 1001 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 90.31 – 1007 (7 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Mixed report disappointed with a dismal forecast and narrowly better result, but a large downward revision to the previous report. This caused a dull bearish reaction that could only muster 8 ticks. Due to the selloff of about 80 ticks in the past 2 hrs and the extension of the LOD, the market was oversold and unwilling to go lower than 90.08 finding firm support at that level. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 90.13 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with 0-3 ticks on the :01 or :02 bars. After several unsuccessful attempts to penetrate the 90.08 level, it reversed to 90.31 for 22 ticks in about 4 min to cross the S1 Pivot and touch the 50 SMA.

CL 01-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2013

Beige Book Comments Off

Dec 202013

12/4/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 97.29
1st Peak @ 97.37 – 1402 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 97.12 – 1404 (4 min)
25 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of early October through mid November. Eight Districts reported moderate growth rates in economic activity as during the previous reporting period, while modest growth was reported in the Philadelphia, San Francisco, Chicago, and Kansas City Districts. The DX had minimal movement, and mostly chopped sideways. This resulted in a 8 tick dull long reaction in 2 bars that crossed the 50/100 SMAs. With JOBB, it would not have triggered the long entry on your bracket until late in the :32 bar, then backed off due to the SMAs. In this case with the muted move and SMA location, place your stop at about 97.29 and wait for it to potentially go further long. You would have been stopped with a 5 tick loss, but averted a larger loss and been safe due to the typical pattern of this report to slowly achieve a peak over several bars. The reversal garnered 25ticks to nearly reach the 200 SMA 2 min later. After that it rallied for a double top 20 min later, then strongly reversed again.

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